Category Archives: Stock market

by | February 5, 2014 · 2:15 pm

Is this a rebound?

The Dow ended the Tuesday up 0,47%, and the S&P 500 added 0,76%. The key now is the U.S data, and any missing of data will change the game. The bounce in Nikkei led the investors to bid up the safe-heaven yen, with the dollar dipping to 101,36 yen from an early top of 101,77.

Nikkei rose 1,2% today, and it was far away from testing the 200 MA. The index has shed 14% so far in 2014 and rose 50% in 2013. In Japan they are concerned about the Fed tapering and I assume that Japan knows everything about QE.

Europe is up followed by good news from Euro zone Composite PMI, which measure business activity across thousands of companies and tells investors about the economic health. It climbed to 52,9 in January (previous: 52,1). That was the highest reading since June 2011. Great! These numbers tell us the recovery of the 18-member block is broad-based.

Good economic data helped the Euro zone to break a three-day run of losses on Wednesday. It helped the investors nerves, before the ECB`s monthly meeting on thursday.

Federal Reserve is lowering the stimulus that helped the equity`s to gain 123% the last four years. S&P 500 rose 173% from the bottom in 2009. That is a bull market that is a year older than the average since World War II.

Economists are more bullish now than 2011 when the S&P 500 was on the brink of a bear market. IMF raised its global growth projection to 3,7%. That`s up from October estimate of 3,6%.

Reports today:

08:15:00 ADP Non-Farm Employment change Forecast: 191K Previous: 238K
10:00:00 ISM Non-manufactoring PMI Forecast: 53,6 Previous: 53

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 4, 2014 · 2:18 pm

The new wallets

Apple:

Yes, the new wallets is here. Fact is that the new wallets have been on the market for many years now. Some people expected to see a Near Field Communication chip for mobile payments when Apple launched the new Iphone 5 a couple of year ago, but ended up disappointed.

 

Smartphones are predicted to be the new wallets and forecast for mobile payments in 2014 is $7,5B. In 2013 it was $2,1B, and $0,6B in 2012. If this is taking off we can see mobile payments of $70B in 2016. Mobile payments in China have doubled in 2013 and ended up to 218,6 Billion Yuan.

 

The most critical element in this business is the security, but Apple seems to have the right solution for all the customers waiting to pay by smartphones. Apple signed a new patent (#20140019367) on January 16.

 

What about their competitors like Visa, Mastercard, Paypal and others? They should do something before it is too late. Once Apple start with their new mobile payment solution, the card users will slowly disappear. This threath is too big to ignore I think.

 

Stocks & Commodities:

Petrobras (PBR) plummeted 5,8% yesterday and that is an eight year low level, now trading at 13.85 Brazilian reais ($5.69). This is the lowest since july 29, 2005. The overall markets plummeted yesterday, like they historically do when a new Fed chairman comes in, but Twitter went up +1,16%. What is going on here? Any report surprise?

 

Gold is not taking off despite the bearish markets we see now. Right now the gold is trading at $1.252.80, down -0,52%. Silver is also down today, trading at $19.35, down -0,30%. Copper is trading at $319.85, up today +0,47%.

 

Reports:

10:00:00 Factory Orders Forecast: -1,90% Previous: 1,80%
10:00:00 Economic Optimism Forecast: 46,1 Previous: 45,2

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 3, 2014 · 2:16 pm

Earnings reports this week

January is behind us, and that was not a good start of the year. The Dow dropped down on friday and are now contributing to a -5,3% January slide, while S&P are trading -3,6% lower. January was a red month.

 

79% of the S&P companies have reported better than expected, but that haven`t helped the markets in January. Earnings reports this week along with jobs reports on Friday will be important reports to follow.

 

Earnings reports continue this week, and some reports to watch this week is Twitter (TWTR), Yelp (YELP), Pandora (P), Bally Technologies (BYI), and LinkedIn (LNKD). I look forward to Twitter`s report (02/05/2014). EPS forecast is -$0,1. This will be their first earnings report since they went public. What about a big surprice?

 

Twitter signed a contract with International Business Machines (IBM) on friday. They acquire 900 patents, and entered into a cross-licensing agreement with the company. The deal with IBM will give Twitter “greater intellectual property protection and gives us freedom of action to innovate”, they said.

 

It seems like Twitter is following the same strategy as their rival Facebook. IBM have 41.000 patents and have also sold patents to Google to help the internet giant protect in the patent wars among smrtphone makers. IBM also sold 750 patents to Facebook. The licensing revenue for IBM is approximately $1 billion a year (1% of sales).

 

Pandora`s consensus EPS forecast for the quarter (02/05/2014) is $0,01. Last year is was $-0,09. I can`t remember last time they surpriced the market. Can you beat the estimates now?

 

The overvalued stock Yelp is reporting the same day (02/05/2014), and the estimates for the quarter ended December 2013 is -$0,02. Last year: -$0,06. Yelp is up $10,2% in 2014, and +271% (1 YR).

 

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter for LinkedIn (02/06/2014), is $0,09. Last year it was $0,1. Come on LinkedIn; do you beat earnings estimates this time? Last year the EPS reports from LinkedIn was mixed. In Mars: $0,22, June: $0,07, September: 0 (-100% surprice).

 

Bally Technologies is down -6,5% in 2014, but are up +50,7% (1 YR). The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1,02. The same quarter last year was $0,8.

 

Reports today: ISM Manufactoring PMI at 10:00am.

money2

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 31, 2014 · 1:34 pm

Market update

Nikkei ended down to a 2 1/2 month low, while the yen rose. It`s very mixed in Asia. Some red and some green numbers, but in Europe it is different. They are all down and they are very red on emerging market worries. Gold is up +0,52%, trading at $1248,60.

This is how it will be now I think. Up and down. A volatile market. Right after the FOMC statement, we saw the market went down, but there was no panic. The volume was low and the U.S market went up yesterday. Today, It seems like the U.S market will start in a red territory.

It is the last day of January today, and it is headed for the worst january in Europe since 2010. What I will focus more about now is inflation, stagflation and deflation. Printing a lot of money should lead to growth and inflation.

But so far, we see a slow growth, low inflation and worries about deflation. There are two camps out there. One that expect inflation (some predict hyperinflation) and one camp that expect deflation. Who are you gonna listen to?

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

 

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by | January 30, 2014 · 1:38 pm

Facebook up 12,4%

So far this year, Facebook is down -2,0%. Yesterday, Mark Zuckerberg launched the new report FQ4earnings, and after that, the stock jumped 12,4% in after hours trading. That is pretty good for a stock that everybody predict will die like a virus and lose about 80% of its users by 2017.

Researchers at University College London stated that Facebook is «dead and buried». The teenagers has escaped and Facebook is not cool anymore. The fact is that Facebook has grown its EPS and revenue last eight quarters, and they have 847 million active users.

Facebooks fourth-quarter revenue topped analysts estimates. Revenue rose 63% to $2,59B. Mobile promotions generated $1,25B and accounted for 53% of advertising revenue. Previous quarter was $49%. Mobile is the key for Facebook, so I think it`s going to be a great battle between Facebook and their competitor Twitter in the future.

Net income rose to $523million, or 20 cents a share. That`s up 17 cents a share from a year ago. As an educated marketer, I will follow both Facebook and Twitter for their battle on the digital-ad market. Twitter will release their first earnings as a public company feb 5. We look forward to that.

It is expected that Facebooks market share will rise to 9% by 2015, while Twitter will grab a 2% share. Facebooks average price of ads is up 92% from a year ago. It will be more quality ads instead of quantity ads. Next week they will celebrate 10 year. Happy birthday.

If the teens have gone from Facebook, where are they? They are on Instagram, and the number of people on that platform is truly remarkable, but right now they don`t have any data for this teen engagement. Facebook is the owner of Instagram.

Last year Facebook offered $3 billion to acquire Snapchat Inc. This platform is also very popular to teenagers. It`s understandable that the younger teens aren`t using Facebook`s website anymore. They have so much other alternatives.

Facebook is not only Facebook. It`s Instagram too. Instagram is growing and has doubled its user base. This mobile photo-sharing service company have 180M MAUs, and that`s pretty good compared to last years 90M MAUs.

Mark Zuckerberg says Facebook is planning to launch several new apps in 2014. They will develop more standalone mobile apps with great new experiences that separates from what you think of as Facebook today.

Facebook Messenger had a 70% growth in the last 90 days. North America still accounted for 47% of the revenue in Q4. Last month, they sold $3,85 billion of shares in a secondary offering. That is Facebook`s first share sale since going public. The stock more than doubled last year.

Holidays starts tomorrow to mark a change in the Chinese zodiac calendar from the snake to the year of the horse. On a day like this, many Chinese people buy gold as a gift and the demand is rising. As you know, the Chinese economy is growing fast, and so are the demand for jewelry, bars and coins. It rose 30% last year, and that is the highest of any nation, World Gold Council data show. Net imports of bullion from Hong Kong more than doubled last year.

Reports today: Advance GDP q/q at 8:30am, Unemployment claims at 8:30 and Pending home sales at 10:00am.

F vs T

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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