Author Archives: Ket Garden

by | May 8, 2018 · 4:00 am

Disney said to Netflix that they are planning to launch a competing streaming site service next year

Im a big fan of Walt Disney. Thats why I not only look at their films, but also their stocks. Walt Disney is not alone in the film market, and one of their competitors is Netflix. But for how long? Last Fall Disney said they wanted to pull its own films from Netflix.

Disney said they are planning to launch a competing streaming site service next year. It will be a family friendly streaming site and a site for adults. We know that Netflix is producing its own films, but we also know how Disney is doing it. It is a production powerhouse. In other words; a big competitor in the future.

(Tchaikovsky`s music from the ballet “The Nutcracker” is one of my favorites. This fantasy film directed by Lasse Hallstrom is scheduled to be released by Walt Disney Pictures on November 2, 2018)

Walt Disneys market cap is 150,46 billion, while Netflix market cap is 138,10 billion. A big difference, but unfair to compare, because Netflix is a streaming company while Disney is so much more than that.

Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company. The company operates in four business segments, which is Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, and Consumer Products & Interactive Media.

The media networks segments includes cable and broadcast television networks, television production and distribution operations, domestic television stations, and radio networks and stations.

There is no doubt that the real big Champion in the streaming market is Netflix, but they will get a serious competitor in the future. The Fox deal will make Disney even bigger on top of its already great pool of media properties. A majority stake in Hulu will also help.

Disney will take control of Fox`s movie studios, TV studios, FX Network and National Geographic Channel. All this will help Disney to build a new streaming giant.

Disney agreed to buy the bulk of Fox for $52 billion in December of 2017. Included in the package deal was a 30 percent stake in online streaming service, Hulu, of which Disney already owned 30 percent.

Now with a majority stake in the company, Disney has the option to buy out the rest of the Hulu stock from Comcast and Time Warner or engage with all the players involved. There is no doubt that they can be a great production powerhouse.

Disney are jumping right into it with Hulu. On top of that they can start to build their own streaming site for children in addition to ESPN Plus, which is a subscription service for sports fans, that will launch this spring for $4,99 per month.

“I think the way to look at the revenue opportunities, as particularly as it relates to production, is to consider the fact that what we`re buying here is significant production capabilities and, with that, the talent to produce on our behalf,” Iger said to investors earlier this year.

Walt Disney Company is expected to report earning on 8 May 2018 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2018. Earnings forecast for the quarter is $1,68, and reported earning for the same quarter last year was $1,5. Any earnings surprise?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | May 3, 2018 · 4:00 am

The public cloud market is expected to reach $411 Billion by 2020 and one of the fastest growing cloud provider in the world is Alibaba

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has declined since March this year after recent trade war fears. It`s not fair if you look at the numbers. The company boasted a five-year CAGR of over 40 percent, and their revenue is primarily driven by core e-commerce.

Alibaba`s Market cap is $464,72 Billion, and that valuation is good if you look at their potential for growth like cloud computing which is growing fast. They are also expanding in the Indian market with good help from Softbank.

Softbank has already acquired many important startup companies in India, and India will be one of the most important markets for Alibaba in the future. Alibaba and their ally Softbank will therefore build its business on companies that is already operating in the Indian market instead of doing it all from scratch.

The online retail market in India is growing fast and Alibaba can grow in this sector despite the fact that they are late into the market. Alibaba led a funding round of $300 million in online grocer Big Basket at a valuation of $950 million.

But they have competitors. Amazon will invest over $5 Billion in Amazon India, and Valmart wants to buy about 80 percent stake in Flipkart. Valmart is willing to pay about $12 Billion. Alibaba will also earn from Softbank`s investment in rival online grocer Grofers.

Alibaba`s core commerce segment comprises marketplaces operating in retail and wholesale commerce in China, and international commerce. The Cloud computing segment, which comprises Alibaba Cloud offering a complete suite of cloud services, is in top gear.

Cloud computing is good for Alibaba as more and more businesses are shifting their servers and broadband subscriptions to cloud computing technology in order to streamline costs.

The public cloud market is expected to reach $411 Billion by 2020, and Alibaba with its ongoing initiatives is well posed to grab the growth opportunity. I have a good reason to belive that cloud computing will be one of Alibaba`s major growth drivers in the future.

Alibaba has expanded overseas to Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Frankfurt, London, Paris, New York, San Mateo, Dubai, Seoul, Tokyo and Sydney. So far, they have more than 2,3 million customers worldwide.

In the last report, cloud computing segment increased 104 percent to US$553 million, and revenues from its core commerce segment were up 57 percent YoY to US$11,3 Billion.

Alibaba is probably the most shorted stock in the world in recent weeks after trade war fears, but their opportunity for further growth will probably exceed investors expectations. If so, Alibaba`s shares can easily jump to next target; $200.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is expected to report earnings on May 4 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2018. Earnings forecast for the quarter is $0,7 which is well below earnings for the same quarter last year of $0,39. Last quarter, Alibaba delivered a negative earnings surprise of 1,21 percent.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | May 2, 2018 · 4:00 am

Officials said the appropriate path for the FED`s funds rate over the next few years would likely be slightly steeper than they had previously expected

The Interest Rate are increasing while the outlook for the economy are getting stronger and the inflation is expected to follow the rate in the coming months. The FED, meeting for the first time under Chairman Jerome Powell, raised the funds rate to 1,5 – 1,75 percent during its March meeting.

FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Their next meeting is May 1 – 2, 2018, and GDP, Interest Rate and Inflation is on the table. The economic outlook is improving and the FED officials has recently projected a steeper path of hikes next year and 2020.

The FEDs funds rate was extremely volatile when Ronald Reagan entered the White House in 1981. In the early 80s the rate peaked at 20 percent and plummeted to about 10 percent and then back to nearly 20 percent again. That`s what I call action.

During the period of Ronald Reagan, the rate went from 20 percent and down to 10 percent in 1989, when Ronald Reagan said welcome to the next president; George Bush. He succeeded to push down the rate even more, but it hit a record low of 0,25 percent in 2008. That time is for now over.

The increase in March was the sixth rise since the central bank began a tightening cycle back in December 2015. As the economy has strengthened, the FED has upped the pace of hikes.

After the FOMC meeting in March, officials said the economy looks good and that the inflation is expected to move up. Almost all of the officials agreed that a gradual tightening remains appropriate.

The FED also said that the prospect of retaliatory trade actions by other countries as well as other issues and uncertainties associated with trade policies as downside risks for the economy.

Some people are concerned among their business contracts about the possible ramifications of the recent imposition of tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. They didn`t see the steel and aluminium tariffs, by themselves, to have significant effect on the national economic outlook.

Contracts in the agricultural sector reported feeling particularly vulnerable to retaliation.

The stance of monetary policy will remain accommodative, supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

Some of the participants in the March meeting said that the stronger outlook for economic activity, along with their increased confidence that inflation would return to 2 percent, implied that the appropriate path for the FED`s funds rate over the next few years would likely be slightly steeper than they had previously expected.

It is expected to see the rate unchanged after the meeting on Wednesday, but another hike is imminent at the following one in mid June.

The next FOMC meeting took place on Tuesday this week and will end on Wednesday with any changes to monetary policy announced immediately after the meeting.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | May 1, 2018 · 4:00 am

More than 50% of Apple`s revenue comes from the iPhone sale and Service is a growth sector

More than 50% of Apples revenue comes from the iPhone sale, but for how long will that last? Its dangerous for a company like Apple to think it will last for the next hundred years, and that`s probably why CEO Tim Cook have targeted service as a growth sector.

Iphone is still a very important product for Apple and therefore it will be much talked about, but other products are also good and should be one the plan. Service revenue from iCloud, the App Store and Apple Music can all grow in the future.

We know the evolution of the mobile phone industry. The Swedish company Ericsson was hot during the 90s, before Finlands Nokia took over the throne, but it didn`t last forever. As you may know, Apple launched iPhone and have since then been the king of Smartphones.

Smartphones won`t last forever, and once those phones are “out”, Apple must be prepared and think fast. The way we use our phone as we know it today will change.

Apple`s market cap is $848,35 Billion and so far it has been a great ride for the last ten years. Their multi-hundred billion cash stockpile gives them a great opportunity to spend money on M&A, but also R&D.

Morgan Stanley thinks the company could increase the capital return program by $150 Billion. Earlier this year, Apple said it expects to pay $38 Billion taxes on what it plans to repatriate, implying it will bring back nearly all of its $250 Billion in overseas profits.

The Street are concerned about the iPhone X sale and total revenue based on higher selling prices. Service are growing about 20% YoY, but the revenue from iPhone X can be worse than investors like to think.

The newest generation of iPhones is not as good as the iPhone 7 has a year earlier. Maybe it is because of a stiff price or maybe consumers go for a cheaper phone?

Shares of Apple are flirting with 200 MA and after a jump of nearly 2 percent on Monday it will be interesting to see if the results on Tuesday will send the stock in the bullish territory or down again.

Apple Inc is expected to report earnings on 1 May 2018, after market close, and the report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2018. Earnings for the quarter is $2,69 which is better than last years $2,1.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 27, 2018 · 7:37 pm

Peace in North Korea may earn president Donald Trump the Nobel Peace Prize

President Donald Trump deserve Nobel Peace Prize, and that is hard for Trump haters to talk about. One of the things Obama said to Mr Trump at the White House is that the North Korea case was the most difficult case.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the South Korean president Moon Jae-in, issued a joint statement that was short on detail but offered cause for optimism as the world looks ahead to a summit between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.

Now, Mr Trump said that the War will come to an end, and Trump should get a lot of credit for that. He seized on the signing of a peace agreement to say the American people should be proud. President Donald Trump is not only making America Great Again, but also The World.

 

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