Tag Archives: Twitter

by | January 21, 2014 · 2:38 pm

Salesgrowth

What is the revenue of all these social media companies? Snapchat say they have 400 million snaps per day, and Pinterest say they have 1,5 million pins per day. Wow. It sounds like they both are big companies. Are they? Snapchat has been valued at $2 billion with about 30 million active users.

What about Facebook? They also have a lot of users, but how many of them is active users? And what about Twitter? Nasdaq is now trading at 4197,58. Last time Nasdaq was trading at about 4000 was in 1999. You all know that the dot-com-bubble bursted in year 2000.

Today I want to show you an overwiev of the media companies. Who is the biggest, and who have the biggest growth? You know it is more easy for small companies to have a huge growth than the big one, so don`t look at the growth isolated.

Below you will see a list of 15 different companies in the media online business. The first list is a list with the companies with the best growth. No matter what the market cap is. Take a look at the list below, which is a list that compares the sales growth in 2013.

Company Salesgrowth Market Cap
Qihoo 360 Technology 106,20% 9,88
Youku Tudou 76,80% 5,12
Yelp! 67,50% 4,63
LinkedIn 60,10% 25,58
Facebook 51,70% 137,17
Baidu 47,40% 60,94
Tencent holdings 4,80% 119
Sohu.com 32,2 2,76
Yandex 28,60% 13,89
Sina 28,1 5,52
Google 13,90% 371,74
Groupon 8,00% 7,62
Pandora Media 0,00% 5,26
Yahoo! -0,60% 40,58
Zynga -27,00% 3,18

The blue shows the companies with salesgrowth in plus, and the yellow, shows the company which is in status quo. Red speak for them selves. Take a look at Zynga. Salesgrowth last year was down -27%.

Next list is about the market cap where Google is the biggest. Take a look:

Company Salesgrowth Market Cap
Google 13,90% 371,74
Facebook 51,70% 137,17
Tencent holdings 40,80% 119
Baidu 47,40% 60,94
Yahoo! -0,60% 40,58
LinkedIn 60,10% 25,58
Yandex 28,60% 13,89
Qihoo 360 Technology 106,20% 9,88
Groupon 8,00% 7,62
Sina 28,10% 5,52
Pandora Media 0,00% 5,26
Youku Tudou 76,80% 5,12
Yelp 67,5 4,63
Zynga -27,00% 3,18
Sohu.com 32,20% 2,76

No major reports today.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | December 4, 2013 · 1:49 pm

Dividend Yield

Some investors are looking for technology stocks with high growth. You can look for them in stock screens and search for dividend paying characteristics. If you are looking for dividend income and act like a value investor, then you can look for Dividend Yield.

This Dividend Yield number tells you what percentage return for example Coca Cola pays out to shareholders. Older companies like Coca Cola will normally pay out higher percentage than younger companies like for example Twitter.

You calculate like this:

Dividend Yield = annual dividend per share / stock’s price per share

Let`s say a stock trades at $100, and the dividend Yield is 3%. Annual dividend is $3.

($3/$100 = 0,03).

To be in the market and invest money in different markets is like a college class that never ends. As an investor you need to monitor existing stocks and always be on the look for new and great opportunities.

Now it is a good time to check your stock portfolio before the year ends. I will write about that later. News today: ADP non-farm employment change, and trade balance at 8:15am, ISM Non-Manufactoring PMI, and New home sales at 10.00am, Crude Oil inventories at 10.30am.

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by | November 14, 2013 · 1:57 pm

Price to earnings 2

Margin of safety is very important. It seems to be like that the human psychology is apt to go too far sometimes and it can all end up to throw rational valuation out of the window.

You know that price-to-earnings for Facebook is 12, and 13 for Twitter, and if you are paying more than 15 times the earnings for a company, you need to seriously examine the underlying assumptions you have for the companies profit in the future, and its intrinsic value.

I have seen many stocks trading with much more than 12 and 13x earnings, and if you have bought some of them at that price you would have crushed other investments because the underlying prifits did live up to Wall Streets expectations.

But who is investing in a risky business if they don`t know the business they are in? Do you feel confortable if you have all your money in a risky stock like that if you don`t know the demand, competitors, future drivers and the commodity nature of their product? The company can be wiped out, so does your money, but probably not.

The ideal situation is when you get a great business out of your investments and generates huge amount of money with little capital investments. Sometimes you get a huge profit at a steep discount to intrinsic value. How about Wells Fargo, trading at 5x earnings during the real estate crash 23 year ago?

You have to predict the future and try to imagine how the future will be for the company. How is it today, tomorrow, next year and how does it look in 10 years? Is this business going to grow? Will it be a huge demand for their products? Are they competetive? What about their earnings and profit in the future? Is there any threats?

I know a great company. They are selling cd`s and vinyl records. Everybody knows about the company and the price is low. Are you willing to buy shares in this company? Of course not. Selling vinyl and cd`s is not the future and you know that. The future is streaming and broadband. That is where you are going to spend your money.

It is wise to require a much larger margin of safety before you buy some shares in enterprises. The right definition of ‘Price-Earnings Ratio – P/E Ratio is; A valuation ratio of a company’s current share price compared to its per-share earnings. It is calculated like this:

Let`s say company A is currently trading at $50 a share and earnings (EPS) over the last 12 months were $1,95 per share. Then the P/E ratio for the stock should be 25,6. ($50/$1,95). That`s it. Remember that the average market P/E ratio is 20 – 25 times earnings.

EPS (earnings per share) is taken from the last four quarters (trailing P/E). Sometimes the numbers is taken from the estimates for the next four quarters (projected or forward P/E). Other use the last two actual quarters and the estimates of the next two quarters. Often known as “price multiple” or “earnings multiple”.

It will be wrong to compare price-to-earnings in a technology company (high P/E) to a utility company (usually low P/E) as they have a different growth prospects. P/E tells us how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. P/E for Facebook is 12, which means that the investors is willing to pay $12 for $1 of current earnings.

Avoid basing a decision on this measure alone, because this numbers is usually not enough. the earnings is based on an accounting measure of earnings that is susceptible to forms of manipulation. It makes the quality of the P/E only as good as the quality of the underlying earnings number. Keep in mind that companies that are losing money do not have a P/E ratio.

News today: Trade Balance & Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Fed Chairperson Yellen Testifies at 10:00am, 30 Year Auction at 1:01pm.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 13, 2013 · 1:53 pm

Price to earnings 1

I always look for values, and I tend to be an value investor. That`s why I have been written about Twitter and their IPO share price lately. That doesn`t mean I always look for a low price-to-earnings ratio stocks. I think that is a mistake many investors do when they are investing.

This approach has generated above the average returns over a long periode of time, but it is not the ideal solution to find the right stock. Twitter was trading down -2,33% yesterday, closing at a share price of 41,9. Value investors are selling at the moment. What is the value?

I look for the intrinsic value of all the assets in a company. The important thing is the cash flows that will be generated by that asset discounted back to the present moment at a rate that factors in opportunity cost and infation. You can measure the opportunity cost against the risk-free U.S Treasury.

Different companies deserve different valuations. That is how you understand the intrinsic value. It is difficult to try to figure out how to use this for individual stocks. It depends on the economics, the nature and what business the company are operating in.

You have many different businesses out there. You only need a computer to start a new web building company. Starting a new steel mill requires tens of thousands of dollars in startup capital. What a difference?

The web builder deserve a higher price to earnings multiple because the shareholders doesnt need to spend more money to maintain the property and other equipments. This is why intelligent investors distinguish between the net income figure and true and “economic” profit (Warren Buffet call it: “owner” earnings).

This represent the amount of cash they can spend on other investments by reinvesting it.

Reported net income is not the most important thing, but how many computers the owner can buy relative to his investment is more interesting.

The investors net worth is limited to the return on aquity generated by the underlying company. On the other side; you can hope for another “fool” to buy your share for a higher price or a great bull market, but that is very speculative and seems to be very risky.

As you can see, two different businesses might have identical earnings of $10 million, but Company A may gererate about $5 million and company B, $20 million in “owner earnings”, which means company B can have a price-to-earnings ratio that is four times higher than company A yet still be trading at the same value.

News today: FED chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at 7pm.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 11, 2013 · 2:19 pm

What is the “right price” for Twitter?

How do you know that the price you see is the right price of a stock? Because, the price you see, is the right price in the market. But, is it fair? Do the market always have right?

You need to do some homework to find the right price. Sometimes, the stock is overvalued, and sometimes the stock is undervalued. So, you need to do a fundamental analysis.

Look for the fundamental financial levels. This type of analyses examines key ratios of a business and gives you a great idea to determine the value of the stock and it`s financial health.

Sometimes the stock price is overvalued like Twitter at the moment. They do not earn money right now, but investors expect them to earn money sometimes in the future. The goal for fundamental analysis is to determine the current worth of the company and how the markets values the stock today.

It`s much better and more fun to follow stocks more closely if you know the fundamentals and the key ratios and terms.

First of all: It`s all about EARNINGS! That`s what investors want to know. The questions is: how much money do they earn today, and how much money will earn tomorrow?

I have written about it sometimes during this earning seasons. Earnings are profits, and that`s what buying a company is about. Stock prices follow earnings and in some cases, a regular dividend. When the earnings goes up, the stock price goes up. When the earnings goes down, so do the stock price.

Earnings are very important, but that doesn`t tell you anything about how the market values the stock. That`s why you need to use fundamental analysis tools. They are easy to calculate, but most of them is done on websites like cnn.money.com. This makes it easy to compare the stocks too.

The most popular fundamental analyses is P/E, EPS, PEG, P/S and P/B. You also have Dividend Payout Ratio, Dividend Yield, Book value and Return on Equity.

None of this numbers in this analysis will give you a great buy or sell signal by itself, but it gives you a good picture of the stock and it will become benchmarks to measure the worth of the stock you want to invest in.

In my opinion, Twitter is not worth $50 today, but investors in the market have right, and expect them to earn money sometimes in the future. This is how they valued stocks in the late 90`s. Some tech stock prices was extremely high despite their low earnings, and that gave us the tech bubble.

Normally, investors are not so patient. If Twitter do not earn money within a very short time, I think the stock price will decline. Anyway, this is why it makes this so funny to be in the stock market.

Weaker gold prices is expected this week, as the price dropped below it`s support at $1300. Again. The gold price can now go below the October low. The markets is also expected to be (in theory) a very quiet one, with earnings coming to a close and a light week for economic releases. News today: Bank Holiday, Markets Open.

Markets up

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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