Tag Archives: Twitter

Groupon is laying off 1,100

I have never been a fan of Groupon, and when I say that it is not as a customer. Groupon has a business model that really makes the customers big winners in this game. Nothing wrong with that, but it is the businesses that is paying for the show, and they don`t want to lose.

The stock has been hammered. Take a look at the chart below.

GRPN

Groupon Inc operates online commerce marketplaces worldwide that connects merchants to consumers by offering goods and services at a discount. Groupon offers deals on goods and services in three categories: Local deals (Local), Groupon Goods (Goods) and Groupon Getaways (Travel).

Its deals are accessed directly through its Websites, mobile applications and search engines. It`s impressive to see that Groupon grew from $312 million to $3,19 billion from 2010 to 2014. But now, it seems like the glory days are over.

What have happened?

First of all; in my opinion, the biggest winner in this game is the customer. Who are saying no to a great deal? No one. The customers are not paying to Groupon. They are paying to Groupon`s customer, which is the most important thing for Groupon. No customers – no income.

Groupon`s customers need to cut the bill in half. Voila! Groupon`s customer have already lost 50% of the original price. The end customer is satisfied of course, because who say no to 50% discount? The end customer pay to Groupon`s customer, but out of that, another 50% must go to Groupon, which means there is only 25% left to the supplier.

It could have been a good way to promote the business, but it seems like the end customer is the big winner. It depends on what business it is but customers who are paying for the products are not loyal. They will hunt for other discounts other places.

Not only that. Groupon has got a lot of competition from other companies. They are attacked from all sides. They have competition from e-commerce platforms like Amazon, Alibaba and eBay to name a few.

Not only e-commerce platforms are doing the same. Social platforms like Twitter and Facebook have both launched their own «Buy now» buttons. Again; customer are the big winners. Discount here and discount there. Discount everywhere.

Let`s say you sell product A for $1000. If you have your own customer base on Facebook, you can start a 50% discount campaign and still have 50% left without giving half of that to Groupon. It doesn`t matter for your customers, because they have 50% anyway, but it matters to you.

The management need to do something very fast.

Groupon announced it would cut 10 percent of its workforce and cease operations in some areas overseas. The company still have a lot of cash, and in a filing with the SEC, they says the restructuring will require a one-time charge of up to $35 million.

What they need to do is start focusing on their customers. Not their customers customers.

 

shinybull_site_logo-7


Click the link below and check out the Fan Fund

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/fan-fund-tickets-15580655159


Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

Twitter earnings

Twitter will report earnings after the market close tomorrow, February 5th, 2015. The stock is down since the market correction in october last year. Down about 40%. Investors are concerned about slower growth, and estimates are as low as they`ve ever been compared to the Wall Street consensus.

The estimates this time will come in-line with Wall Street expectations, rather than beat by a few cents per share as investors have gotten used to. Last quarter was not a good one for Twitter. The stock dropped down -13% as Twitter posted an earnings miss against the investors. They disappointed with MAU`s guidance.

twitter logo bird

It`s very important for a company like Twitter to have a lot of followers being active, and Twitter had 284 million monthly user accounts at the end of the third quarter. That`s 23% up year over year. By comparison, Facebook had 1,39 billion monthly active users (Q4). That`s an increase of 13%.

User activity is more important than billions of users on your platform. How many have a Facebook account, but don`t use it? This is why MAU is so important. Timeline views increased 14% YoY, but timeline views per MAU`s fell 7% last quarter, and that doesn`t matter so much as investors will watch the interaction between active users and timeline views.

Twitter are focusing more on «ad revenues per thousand timeline views» as others have different measures like revenue per user. Target marketing can be easier on Twitter than Facebook as the platform is for the pro`s, and it will be difficult to compare Facebook and Twitter on this case.

Facebook will have more appeal for the masses than Twitter. Twitter is better used for news and financial services and I`m in doubt that Twitter can build a mainstream platform like Facebook did over years. Expectations for Twitter is probably too high?

Twitter traded at $30 last summer and that`s close to its IPO price, but it have bounced and look like a growth stock right now.

Timeline views is $4,28 in the U.S and $0,84 outside the U.S, and advertising revenues per thousand timeline views increased by 83% YoY on Q3. It came in at $1,77.

The caution in the estimates this time may be a positive for Twitter than it were for Facebook last week. Small earnings beat could be a catalyst to the upside. Investors are looking for 88% revenue growth this quarter which is down from the triple digit gains Twitter has posted since its IPO. Earnings are expected to come in at 6 cents per share, which is all time high.

Twitter, tomorrow after the market close, February 5th, 2015.

 

 


Click the link below and check out the Fan Fund

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/fan-fund-tickets-15580655159


 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

Earnings from Social Media stocks this week

This week is a big week for social media stocks. It all starts today, and we will be getting earnings release from Twitter (TWTR) after the bell today. Twitter kicks off the week for social media earnings today, followed by Facebook tomorrow.

twitter chart

(Picture: Twitter chart)

Twitter haven`t met analysts expectations on MAU`s (monthly active users) growth lately. With 271 million MAU`s they are focusing on product improvements to increase the amount of time users spend on their platform.

They launched their brand new Audio Cards this quarter which enables music and podcasts to be played directly on Twitter via Soundcloud.

The company has underperformed the Nasdaq and Facebook (FB), as analysts is disappointed at Twitters growth prospects and engagement levels. So far, they have posted strong sales growth but with disappointing earnings.

Analysts expect strong results from the social media giant after the bell today, and this brings up the big question; Is this a good time to invest in the tweeting giant?

It is expected to se a report revenue of $360 million, and if that is the fact, it will represent about 100% increase in sales vs same time last year.

It`s not easy to value early stage growth companies like Twitter, but investors will focus on earnings and revenue after the bell today. Some people are negative and expect EPS of $-0,27. Other say $0,01.

Last quarter, the stock gained 22% because revenue was $312 million compared to analysts estimate of $282 million. Some say the surge in performance last time was attributed to increased engagement and user activity because of the FIFA World Cup, and analysts belive that Twitter will not be able to follow with a similar performance.

Analysts I have talked to are forecasting earnings of 3 cents per share. Twitter has a great track record of beating the Street`s EPS consensus. Will they beat Wall Street this time?

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

IMF – Economic Growth

 

In a report yesterday, IMF (International Monetary Fund) said the GDP (gross domestic product) in U.S increased 1,9% last year. The U.S will accelerate to 2,8% expansion in 2014, and 3% nest year. Stronger growth in U.S in 2014 and 2015 will help the world economy withstand weaker recoveries in Emerging markets.

Nadag 08.04.2014

(Chart: Nasdag Index, April 8, 2014)

JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co are reporting earnings this week. The largest aluminium producer Alcoa posted first quarter earnings yesterday. They started the earnings season kick off after the close yesterday.

 

Alcoa have historically been the unofficial kickoff to quarterly earning season. Revenue of $5,45B (-6,5% Y/Y), misses by $100M. EPS of $0,09 beats by $0,04. Alcoa shares is up +2,39% AH. CNBC`s Jim Cramer is bullish on First Solar, and the stock soared 6,7% yesterday.

 

After its worst three-day drop since 2011, Nasdaq rose yesterday +0,81%. It`s interesting to see that most of the tech stock jumped yesterday. LinkedIn jumped +5,92%. Google +3,12%. Facebook +2,18%. Tesla +3,83% and Netflix +3,22% to name a few.

 

But there is one stock that slid yesterday; Twitter. Down -1,58%. The stock is trading at $41,78. Let me put it this way: I am not surprised! They have changed the profile page and look like their rivals Facebook and Google+, but that is not enough to boost its shares I think.

 

Yen rose yesterday as the Japanese equities fell. Yen rose the most since August 2013. European stocks advanced today and its all in a green territory. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up 0,2%, retracing all of Tuesday`s fall.

 

The appetite for stocks was boosted by a recovery yesterday, but I think it is time to be cautious. I`m not buying stocks with both hands right now. The crisis in Ukraine has flared up again, and the earning season has started again. I will follow the report earnings that is coming the next weeks.

 

Reports today:

 

10:00 a.m EST Wholesale Inventories m/m

10:30 a.m EST Crude Oil Inventories

1:01 p.m EST 10-y Bond Auction

2:00 p.m EST FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Commodities, Stock market, Stocks

Sell off on friday

A big drop for U.S tech stocks on friday. Nasdaq was down -2,60% on friday. S&P 500 -1,25% and the Dow -0,96%. Nikkei is also down today, together with the other Asian markets. Nikkei is down -1,69%.

Europe is also down today. Stoxx 50 is down -0,89%. FTSE 100 -0,71%. CAC 40 -0,72% and DAX -1,24%. At the same time, you can see the commodities trading down too. Gold is down -0,16%. Silver is down -0,33%. Crude oil (Brent) -0,95%, and Copper -0,13%.

Nadaq

(Nasdaq: Apris 4, 2014)

Many investors have talked about the valuations in the tech stocks for a while now, and many predicted a tech bubble was on the way. I wrote about it for some weeks ago, and I said Twitter was the most expensive stock in this universe.

52 Week high for Twitter is 74,73, and the stock traded down -2,07% on friday. Twitter is down about 50% from the top very soon. Marketers are embracing Facebook over Twitter, and they will rather go for Youtube and LinkedIn before Twitter.

Sometimes investors need to take some profit and friday was a great day for that. It seems like the U.S markets will open down today. I`m excited about the trading sessions, not only today, but for the rest of this week. Take a look at the dollar. It`s up!

Tech and biotech is so far the most popular sectors in 2014, but both of them slide now. Many tech stocks are trading down in Europe too. This is a great time for daytraders. I will follow the charts this week before I start my vacation on friday. Easter bunny is waiting.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Commodities, Stock market, Stocks