Tag Archives: Twitter

by | January 22, 2016 · 11:55 pm

Alphabet Inc near all-time high

I remember the tech boom in the late 90`s. It was so many great tech companies and we all knew that this was the future. Investors were buying tech stocks with both hands, and we all know the results; A BIG FAT Bubble.

We can see some similar things going on today. Twitter was a hype when they went public in 2013 at a share price of $26. Investors liked the stock and it soared to about $75, but it all stopped there. Wednesday this week, Twitter traded at an all time low at $15.

bubble

Twitter is not alone in this bubble club right now. Many other tech stocks has suffered lately and I think there is different reasons for that. The main reason for the smaller tech companies is easy money because of the rock-bottom interest rates.

Together with inflated tech stock prices we can also see sky-high Silicon Valley real estate prices and rents. Just like we saw in the late 90`s tech boom.

BlackRock slashed its valuation on Snapchat by 24% last year, while Fidelity slashed its valuation on Dropbox by 31%. So things are about to change. Easy money will not be so easy now, which means it will be more difficult for many tech start-ups.

But some tech companies are still going strong.

 

GOOGL

(Click the image to enlarge)

 

One of my favorite stock since 2005, are trading higher on friday. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) is up +2,59% on friday, trading at 745,46. EPS for Alphabet Inc is 21,26 with a market cap of 493,21 Billion.

Alphabet Inc was a big Monster last year, adding nearly 47% in 2015 and traded just below $800 in late December at an all-time high!

It is revealed that Google, in 2014, had paid Apple a sum of $1 billion in order to keep their search bar on the iPhone. Google obviously understand how important it is to have their own operative system on Apple`s iPhone.

Alphabet Inc is a collection of companies like Calico, Google`s health and longevity effort; Nest its connected home business; Fiber, its gigabit internet arm; and its investment divisions such as Google Ventures and Google Capital, and incubator projects, such as Google X.

Many investors have a buy rating with a target price of $850. Others up to $900. I look forward to Apple`s quarterly earnings report next Tuesday, and Alphabet Inc will report on February 1, 2016.

Shareholders are holding their breath to see if today`s rallies will continue.

wallboard

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Stock market, Stocks

Tagged as , , , , , , , ,

by | January 20, 2016 · 11:59 pm

Twitter at record low on Wednesday

It seems like investors have lost all faith in Twitter. A stock that has plummeted so far in 2016. A bad start of the year for CEO Jack Dorsay. Both of his company’s (Square and Twitter) have plummeted.

This is exactly what I have talked about recently. Twitter need a change, and maybe Steve Ballmer is the man? He have a great stake in Twitter and I assume he is not buying into Twitter without knowing something? Or does he have a great idea?

twtr

(Picture: Twitter in a bubble)

 

Because Twitter have a great opportunity, but need to change the business model. Im not gonna reveal any secrets about that right now, because my ideas is not for free. But look at the stock today (Wednesday). Its up 4,19%. What`s going on?

Global stocks tumbled on Wednesday, and Twitter plunged more than 7% today and hit a 52 week low at $15,48. This is the lowest ever! A stock that started the first trading day on the New York Stock Exchange in November 2013 at $26.

Twitter bounced on Wednesday because there is a lot of rumors out there. A takeover rumor.

I have earlier talked about a possible Facebook takeover because they are both great mini-bloggers, but other may be interested. What about Alphabet? Or Ingram? Robert Murdock has denied any takeover for his News Corp.

Investors are disappointed because User Growth and product development has failed. It will be an easy shortcut to join other social media companies, but if they have some ideas to make it on their own, I think they will have a long way back up again.

Mr. Jack Dorsey has a 3,2% stake in Twitter. A company with a market cap of 11,3 Billion, and an Earning per share of -0,86.

sb-wall11

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

Tagged as , , , , , , , ,

by | October 28, 2015 · 7:25 pm

LinkedIn is bigger than Twitter

LinkedIn is another social media company coming out with a report on thursday. The stock has seen a bumpy ride lately and the question is whether the investor are long or short. LinkedIn is the world`s professional network and are a little bit bigger than Twitter.

Twitter`s market cap is $21,25 Billion , while LinkedIn`s market cap is $27,60 Billion. I`m not in doubt that LinkedIn will continue to grow in the long run. The concept look pretty solid and I think Reid Hoffman (founder) know what he is doing. He has been in this business since the beginning of the 90`s.

LinkedIn-link2

The stock is trading at $208 on Wednesday 11 p.m New York time, and some investors expect the stock to jump up to $260 in the short-term. Higher estimates is $300, while lower estimate is $180. Earlier this year the stock peaked at $276.

CEO Jeff Weiner said that revenue had been cut to $670 million compared to analysts expectations for $712 million in the Q2 announcement. The reason was not related to slower growth, but to foreign currency headwinds. It was also related to cost for the integration of Lynda.com, and the stock plunged about 25% in one single day.

Last year LinkedIn acquired Bizo Inc, Newsle Inc and Bright Media Corporation.

LinkedIn has three product lines which is Talent Solutions, Marketing Solutions and Premium Subscriptions. All three product lines are sold through two channels. They have about 277 million members in over 200 countries.

Those of you who read my articles regularly know that I have talked about Twitters`s MAU`s, but LinkedIn is worse. They have fewer users and they spend less time on the platform. Among the top social media platforms, LinkedIn is at the bottom with only 9,8 minutes of usage per day.

Let`s face it. LinkedIn is not Facebook. Nor is it Twitter. It`s a different platform with a different consumer behavior. In fact, in this scenario, Twitter shouldn`t focus on users and try to be like Facebook as they do today. They should change their business model and be more like LikedIn. If not, sell or merge.

We know that most US millennial don`t check their Twitter accounts very often. So is it for LinkedIn. 47% check their Facebook account more than once a day. LinkedIn: 6% and Twitter: 23%. Despite that; LinkedIn is over 30% bigger than Twitter. That`s why I say Twitter should merge with Facebook as we know the business model today or simply keep the company and change their strategy/business model. 300 million users is not good enough. It should be a least 1 Billion.

More than 28% of people worldwide will use a social network regularly in 2015 and the audience will surpass the 2 billion mark this year.

Analysts expect EPS to plunge to $-0,32 from last years $0,1 per share. Wall Street forecast 6,67% negative EPS growth and EPS Q2 came in at $-0,30. In March 2015, EPS was $-0,18, but in December 2014, it was $0,12.

LinkedIn has underperformed over 19% the S&P 500 and as you can see the stock is in a downtrend right now. Analysts are forecasting earnings decrease of -786%, but I belive that LinkedIn will bounce back and continue to grow the coming years.

LinkedIn report after the bell on Thursday.

 

shinybull_site_logo-7

Click the link below and check out the Fan Fund

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/fan-fund-tickets-15580655159

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

Tagged as , , , , , ,

by | October 26, 2015 · 8:52 pm

Twitter report tuesday

It`s a critical day for Twitter tomorrow, and I will close my eyes and cross my fingers tomorrow after the bell. Twitter`s third-quarter earnings report comes out tomorrow and that`s right after a dramatic CEO search and only a few weeks after co-founder Jack Dorsey became permanent CEO.

What I will look for tomorrow is Twitter`s user growth measured by MAU`s, which ended Q2 with 316 million (+15% YoY). I look at it as more important than their revenue and earnings because it is vital and fundamental for their future.

Wall Street anticipate revenue to come in at $556,99 million and an EPS of $0,05, which means a revenue growth of 55% and a YoY EPS growth of 500%. Analysts are betting the revenue to come in at $560 million.

Twitter-cartoon

Why are analysts more optimistic than Wall Street? It`s simply because Twitter`s advertising revenue last quarter was up 63%, and analysts are expecting a better growth for Q3. About 90% of total revenue is coming from Advertising revenue.

Right after the Q2 results, Twitter`s shares plummeted 13% despite that the company`s revenue and earnings was better than expected. It sounds strange for many but user growth is seen as a more important measure than revenue and earnings.

The user growth is slow and it grew 12% YoY, and that is only 0,07% sequentially.

I`m really sceptical when I hear a CEO on that level have two different jobs. Jack Dorsey is CEO and a co-founder of Twitter. But he is also working in Square at the same time. How is that possible? And what management is it in Twitter at the moment?

Last time Twitter reported earnings, Jack Dorsay was serving as interim CEO, and he said that the management was «not satisfied with Twitter`s growth of audience.» Twitter`s MAU`s is «only» 304 million, while Facebook has 1,19 billion MAU`s.

Marketers using Twitter can test one ad against a control group, but on Facebook marketers can test multiple campaigns at once. That`s because Twitter is much smaller than Facebook. The system is great because marketers can better know the true value of their ad. Twitter`s partnership with Alphabet`s DoubleClick can change that.

The company has announced a 336 job cuts and since Jack Dorsey entered as a leader, Omid Kordestani who is an ex-Google employee, came in as an executive chairman for Twitter. Other key executives are fleeing the company, like former Vice President of Corporate Development Rishi Garg.

CEO Jack Dorsay and Twitter need to change their platform and start with a new strategy. All this will take a lot of time, and investors will probably listen more to news like that than revenue, earnings and user growth tomorrow.

Twitter on Tuesday after the bell.

 

shinybull_site_logo-7

Click the link below and check out the Fan Fund

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/fan-fund-tickets-15580655159

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

Tagged as , , ,

by | October 13, 2015 · 11:32 pm

Twitter and Facebook can make a MEGA-merger

CEO Jack Dorsey in both Twitter and Square, announced today that Twitter will lay off about 336 employees, which is about 8 percent of Twitters workforce. The engineering team will be downsized in a restructuring plan.

Twitter has a lot of obstacles, and CEO Jack Dorsey is hired to solve them all. He is still holding down his second job as CEO of Square in addition to his «full-time» job in Twitter. The biggest challenge is to reach the mass audience.

Jack Dorsey said in an e-mail today that the engineering team will become «smaller and nimbler», while other groups will be «streamlined».

facetwittwheel

 

The new restructuring plan will cost about $10 to $20 million. Cofounder Jack Dorsey said that this is necessary to make Twitter grow. I`m always very sceptical when I hear companies cut to make growth. Is this the beginning of the end?

What I think is; do we really need Twitter? Many of the Twitter users are the same as Facebook users, but there is a huge difference between them. Isn`t it easier for people to be on one platform then two with the same product?

The same can be said about marketers. They are actually spending twice as much money on much of the same target. All of the MAU`s at Twitter is also Facebook users. Today Twitter`s users are more professional than all the users at Facebook, but Facebook is a similar social-media platform with much of the same products.

Twitter and Facebook are both in the same market which is both based on micro-blogging. What Twitter need now is to build a new product and reach the masses. If not, it would be a great idea to merge with Facebook. What about a MEGA-merger?

Investors sent Twitter`s stock right up on the hiring of the new permanent CEO Jack Dorsey, but is it good news to cut employees right after the end of Q3? Last quarter didn`t show any cost side of the income statement, and now we are seeing that their cost is a problem.

Twitter`s Q3 street consensus on revenue is $559 million, and have nearly 4,000 employees. Facebook`s Q2 revenue is eight times higher and have «only» 11,000 employees. Twitter`s stock has plummeted from about $70 to about $30. Facebook`s stock has skyrocketed. From about $20 to about $95.

Facebook`s market cap is 262,32 Billion while Twitter`s market cap is «only» 21,10 Billion. In comparison; Apple Inc`s market cap is 640,58 Billion.

Many of Twitter`s MAU`s are world leaders, celebrities and more. We can see millions of Tweets everyday. Everything from live commentary to cultural memes to name a few. Very good, but is it enough in the long run? I think some investors has a mixed feeling.

Twitter`s third-quarter earnings will be in focus, and their user growth is one of the most important factors to look at. The red flag for Twitter`s user growth has been hold high before. Their user base grew 12 percent YoY, but just 0,07 percent sequentially. MAU was up 15 percent, but only 2,6 percent sequentially.

This is not the growth you expect from a micro-blogging, SMS based, social media company like Twitter.

User growth is what I will look for in Twitter`s Q3 report on Tuesday, October 27, 2015.

 

shinybull_site_logo-7

Click the link below and check out the Fan Fund

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/fan-fund-tickets-15580655159

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

Tagged as , , ,