Tag Archives: Facebook

by | January 20, 2016 · 11:59 pm

Twitter at record low on Wednesday

It seems like investors have lost all faith in Twitter. A stock that has plummeted so far in 2016. A bad start of the year for CEO Jack Dorsay. Both of his company’s (Square and Twitter) have plummeted.

This is exactly what I have talked about recently. Twitter need a change, and maybe Steve Ballmer is the man? He have a great stake in Twitter and I assume he is not buying into Twitter without knowing something? Or does he have a great idea?

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(Picture: Twitter in a bubble)

 

Because Twitter have a great opportunity, but need to change the business model. Im not gonna reveal any secrets about that right now, because my ideas is not for free. But look at the stock today (Wednesday). Its up 4,19%. What`s going on?

Global stocks tumbled on Wednesday, and Twitter plunged more than 7% today and hit a 52 week low at $15,48. This is the lowest ever! A stock that started the first trading day on the New York Stock Exchange in November 2013 at $26.

Twitter bounced on Wednesday because there is a lot of rumors out there. A takeover rumor.

I have earlier talked about a possible Facebook takeover because they are both great mini-bloggers, but other may be interested. What about Alphabet? Or Ingram? Robert Murdock has denied any takeover for his News Corp.

Investors are disappointed because User Growth and product development has failed. It will be an easy shortcut to join other social media companies, but if they have some ideas to make it on their own, I think they will have a long way back up again.

Mr. Jack Dorsey has a 3,2% stake in Twitter. A company with a market cap of 11,3 Billion, and an Earning per share of -0,86.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 10, 2015 · 11:00 am

WhatsApp is bigger than Twitter and LinkedIn combined

WhatsApp is founded by Jan Koum who is now working as a Director in Facebook. Everybody was shocked when Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook acquired WhatsApp for $19 billion in February 2014, and that was just the service of the app.

WhatsApp is now bigger than Twitter and LinkedIn measured with MAU`s.

Jan Koum revealed on Facebook that WhatsApp has more than 900 million monthly active users. That`s up more than 200 million since the beginning of this year, which means that the messaging app could reach the magical number of 1 billion sooner than we know, and probably before the end of the year. What is that suppose to mean?

It means that Facebook have control over two of the biggest messenger apps in the world. In comparison; Tencent`s WeChat is coming in at third with 600 million MAU`s. Nr 4 is Viber (aquired by Rakuten) with about 240 million MAU`s.

 

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(Picture: WhatsApp`s Monthly Active Users in Millions)

 

But WhatsApp is a disaster if you measure their revenue with both Twitter and LinkedIn. 900 million users doesn`t automaticly mean a multi billion dollar business. Not so far. WhatsApp generated $15 million in revenue in the first half of 2014 and had a record loss of $232,5 million. As you may know; WhatsApp is charging $1 dollar per year for using it.

Facebook`s goal is 1 billion MAU`s and CEO Mark Zuckerberg has asked investors for more patience regarding their monetization. He said he ask for some patience on this to do this correctly. The fact is that Facebook`s messenger is bigger than WhatsApp, so I bet they will merge those two to make a megaplatform in the messenger world.

So far, they have been focusing on their user base and once they have reached their goal of 1 billion users, they will try to turn this into a new money-machine. It can be a B2C channel that can be one of Facebook`s main source of income in the future.

I personally often chat with many people from Asia, and all of them (100%) use Skype. Facebook`s messenger is more popular in the U.S than WhatsApp, but WhatsApp is more popular in Europe and Asia than Facebook`s messenger. Anyway, the number of similar App`s will not make it easy for Facebook in this market, but their strongest card is their user base.

Facebook offered Snapchat $3 billion but rejected. Now, Snapchat is trying to raise $500 million at a $20 billion valuation. The company has become a major competitor to Facebook`s News Feed. In comparison; Facebook acquired Instagram for $1 billion and have over 300 million users with a $35 billion valuation.

Snapchat is expanding rapidly, and its stories product for broadcasting photos and videos is a big hit for many teenagers. Snapcash is also very popular that lets friends transfer money to each other through their Square Cash. Snapschat`s new Discover portal is also very popular, which lets you collect snap-formatted content from CNN, Vice, ESPN and Comedy Central.

There aint no doubt; these apps lets you call a friend, a taxi, you can pay movie tickets, pay to your friend, shop with it, search and much more. Instead of using many different apps and many different passwords, these apps can make your life more easy by using one single chat. It`s a hit.

With Facebook`s massive user base, they can merge Facebook`s messenger App with WhatsApp and turn it into a multi billion dollar machine.

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by | November 2, 2015 · 8:17 pm

Facebook is the KING of social media networks

Facebook is the KING!

The king of social media is without any doubt Facebook. The stock is up over 300% since 2013. Mobile ads helped Facebook`s revenue and stock price to skyrocket and their growth prospects comes from VR, Messenger and payment. Financial services are also coming.

Facebook has 1,5 Billion monthly active users, which is more than the world`s most populous country; China. Awesome!

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Of course I am impressed. Facebook has been very aggressive and proactive in their development of advertisement. This is not what you can say about Twitter. Facebook has differentiated their advertisement offerings within the News feed.

This is what Twitter needs. A product like Facebook’s News feed, and 1,5 billion active users, and about 1 Billion DAU`s. They have differentiated the News feed, and these differentiated News feed can help marketers with targeted ads. What marketer in this world would say no to that? Their online advertising growth is accelerating.

Facebook continue to offer services focused on people, marketers and developers and their MAU`s speaks for itself. People are engaged in their activities in all their various platforms which is Facebook, Instagram, messenger and Whatsapp.

Why are people so active on these platforms? People are active to share their opinions, ideas, photos and videos and to engage in other activities. They can also connect, discover and communicate with each other on mobile devices and personal computers.

Another innovation is Facebook’s e-commerce functionality where you can simply buy products direct from your own Facebook site. This comes on top of Facebook’s Instant Articles publishing platform. All this will increase their advertising revenue, which is expected to have increased 50% YoY, ex-FX.

In April 2014, Facebook acquired ProtoGeo Oy, which is a Helsinki-based developer of software for smartphones. In July 2014, they acquired Oculus VR Inc, which is an Irvine-based developer of virtual mobile gaming application software, and as you may know; they are the owner of WhatsApp.

What we see in these markets is only the beginning. An early stage. They have many opportunities as long as they have a massive user base. F or example, the online dating market generated $2,2 Billion in revenue in the U.S in 2014. Facebook can easily take a huge stake in this market if they want. That comes on top of travel, utilities, messenger and e-commerce to name a few.

Facebook will report earnings on Wednesday. Facebook`s earnigs per share forecast for the fiscal Quarter ending September 2015 is $0,35, which is up from last years $0,32. Revenue is expected to jump +37% YoY, to $4,176 million, which is a growth of over 40% since last year.

Facebook after the bell on Wednesday 4 November 2015.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

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by | October 28, 2015 · 7:25 pm

LinkedIn is bigger than Twitter

LinkedIn is another social media company coming out with a report on thursday. The stock has seen a bumpy ride lately and the question is whether the investor are long or short. LinkedIn is the world`s professional network and are a little bit bigger than Twitter.

Twitter`s market cap is $21,25 Billion , while LinkedIn`s market cap is $27,60 Billion. I`m not in doubt that LinkedIn will continue to grow in the long run. The concept look pretty solid and I think Reid Hoffman (founder) know what he is doing. He has been in this business since the beginning of the 90`s.

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The stock is trading at $208 on Wednesday 11 p.m New York time, and some investors expect the stock to jump up to $260 in the short-term. Higher estimates is $300, while lower estimate is $180. Earlier this year the stock peaked at $276.

CEO Jeff Weiner said that revenue had been cut to $670 million compared to analysts expectations for $712 million in the Q2 announcement. The reason was not related to slower growth, but to foreign currency headwinds. It was also related to cost for the integration of Lynda.com, and the stock plunged about 25% in one single day.

Last year LinkedIn acquired Bizo Inc, Newsle Inc and Bright Media Corporation.

LinkedIn has three product lines which is Talent Solutions, Marketing Solutions and Premium Subscriptions. All three product lines are sold through two channels. They have about 277 million members in over 200 countries.

Those of you who read my articles regularly know that I have talked about Twitters`s MAU`s, but LinkedIn is worse. They have fewer users and they spend less time on the platform. Among the top social media platforms, LinkedIn is at the bottom with only 9,8 minutes of usage per day.

Let`s face it. LinkedIn is not Facebook. Nor is it Twitter. It`s a different platform with a different consumer behavior. In fact, in this scenario, Twitter shouldn`t focus on users and try to be like Facebook as they do today. They should change their business model and be more like LikedIn. If not, sell or merge.

We know that most US millennial don`t check their Twitter accounts very often. So is it for LinkedIn. 47% check their Facebook account more than once a day. LinkedIn: 6% and Twitter: 23%. Despite that; LinkedIn is over 30% bigger than Twitter. That`s why I say Twitter should merge with Facebook as we know the business model today or simply keep the company and change their strategy/business model. 300 million users is not good enough. It should be a least 1 Billion.

More than 28% of people worldwide will use a social network regularly in 2015 and the audience will surpass the 2 billion mark this year.

Analysts expect EPS to plunge to $-0,32 from last years $0,1 per share. Wall Street forecast 6,67% negative EPS growth and EPS Q2 came in at $-0,30. In March 2015, EPS was $-0,18, but in December 2014, it was $0,12.

LinkedIn has underperformed over 19% the S&P 500 and as you can see the stock is in a downtrend right now. Analysts are forecasting earnings decrease of -786%, but I belive that LinkedIn will bounce back and continue to grow the coming years.

LinkedIn report after the bell on Thursday.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

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by | October 13, 2015 · 11:32 pm

Twitter and Facebook can make a MEGA-merger

CEO Jack Dorsey in both Twitter and Square, announced today that Twitter will lay off about 336 employees, which is about 8 percent of Twitters workforce. The engineering team will be downsized in a restructuring plan.

Twitter has a lot of obstacles, and CEO Jack Dorsey is hired to solve them all. He is still holding down his second job as CEO of Square in addition to his «full-time» job in Twitter. The biggest challenge is to reach the mass audience.

Jack Dorsey said in an e-mail today that the engineering team will become «smaller and nimbler», while other groups will be «streamlined».

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The new restructuring plan will cost about $10 to $20 million. Cofounder Jack Dorsey said that this is necessary to make Twitter grow. I`m always very sceptical when I hear companies cut to make growth. Is this the beginning of the end?

What I think is; do we really need Twitter? Many of the Twitter users are the same as Facebook users, but there is a huge difference between them. Isn`t it easier for people to be on one platform then two with the same product?

The same can be said about marketers. They are actually spending twice as much money on much of the same target. All of the MAU`s at Twitter is also Facebook users. Today Twitter`s users are more professional than all the users at Facebook, but Facebook is a similar social-media platform with much of the same products.

Twitter and Facebook are both in the same market which is both based on micro-blogging. What Twitter need now is to build a new product and reach the masses. If not, it would be a great idea to merge with Facebook. What about a MEGA-merger?

Investors sent Twitter`s stock right up on the hiring of the new permanent CEO Jack Dorsey, but is it good news to cut employees right after the end of Q3? Last quarter didn`t show any cost side of the income statement, and now we are seeing that their cost is a problem.

Twitter`s Q3 street consensus on revenue is $559 million, and have nearly 4,000 employees. Facebook`s Q2 revenue is eight times higher and have «only» 11,000 employees. Twitter`s stock has plummeted from about $70 to about $30. Facebook`s stock has skyrocketed. From about $20 to about $95.

Facebook`s market cap is 262,32 Billion while Twitter`s market cap is «only» 21,10 Billion. In comparison; Apple Inc`s market cap is 640,58 Billion.

Many of Twitter`s MAU`s are world leaders, celebrities and more. We can see millions of Tweets everyday. Everything from live commentary to cultural memes to name a few. Very good, but is it enough in the long run? I think some investors has a mixed feeling.

Twitter`s third-quarter earnings will be in focus, and their user growth is one of the most important factors to look at. The red flag for Twitter`s user growth has been hold high before. Their user base grew 12 percent YoY, but just 0,07 percent sequentially. MAU was up 15 percent, but only 2,6 percent sequentially.

This is not the growth you expect from a micro-blogging, SMS based, social media company like Twitter.

User growth is what I will look for in Twitter`s Q3 report on Tuesday, October 27, 2015.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

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