Tag Archives: European Union

by | May 6, 2017 · 12:45 am

Emmanuel Macron has 62% of the vote while Jaques Chirac had 82,2% against Marine Le Pen`s father in 2002

People in France are at a very critical moment as they need to vote for a pro-European liberal or a far-right challenger. Voters in France will not only vote for France`s future but also for its place in the European Union.

Whats so special about this election is that the Socialist party and the center-right that have run France since the 1950s is out of the game with their old models. No matter what the winner is, the new President of France will have an agenda for change.

So, who is the next President of France?

 

 

The difference between Macron and Le Pen is that Macron want to stay in the European Union and Le Pen want to get out as soon as possible. They talked about it in a TV debate earlier this week. Emmanuel Macron also had this to say about Le Pen and her right-wing party:

“The France I want will not be divided. To make that happened we will need to leave a system that produced them. You are the co production of the system you are denouncing because you living thanks to it. You are its parasite!”

Wow! That was heavy stuff. «War declared» was also the headline in front of the newspaper in France earlier this week, and that was a message from Ms. Le Pen. There is no doubt; there is a war out there. The globalists vs The Populists.

Its a Populist wave in Europe, but we saw in Netherland that the Populists are still a minority. People in Netherland didnt want them. The latest poll in France is telling us that Macron will win by 62% which is a big victory.

But its not as good as Jacques Chiracs victory in 2002. He won 82,2% of the vote against the far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen, which is the father of Marine Le Pen.

Chirac`s internal policies initially included lower tax rates, the removal of price control, strong punishment for crime and terrorism, and business privatization. After pursuing these policies as Prime Minister in 1986 – 1988, he changed his method.

He argued for more socially responsible economic policies, and he was elected in 1995 after campaigning on a platform of healing the “social rift” (fracture sociale).

Then, Chiracs economic policies, based on dirigisme, state-directed ideals, stood in opposition to the laissez-faire policies of the United Kingdom, which Chirac famously described as "Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism". Chiracs religion is Roman Catholicism just like Emmanuel Macron.

There is a war going on and some of the weapons is «fake news». During the heated and sometimes vicious TV debate, Le Pen told Macron she hoped “we will not find out that you have an offshore account in the Bahamas”.

That was a reference to documents circulating on the internet that linked Macron to a Caribbean bank and was easily identifiable as forgeries. Macron swiftly rejected the comment as «defamation».

Paris prosecutors have launched a preliminary investigation into whether the fake news was being used to influence Sunday`s election runoff. Are we facing the same tactic as we saw during the American election?

“Macron came to Greeces aid during our crisis. The left should back him, Yanis Varoufakis said. Former President Obama said: «Im not planning to get involved in many elections now that I don`t have to run for office again, but the French election is very important to the future of France and the values that we care so much about”.

He added: “I have admired the campaign that Emmanuel Macron has run. He has stood up for liberal values. He put forward the vision for the important role that France plays in Europe and around the world. And he has committed to a better future for French people. He appeals to people`s hopes, and not their fears.”

I look forward to Sunday.

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 15, 2017 · 11:55 pm

The Ides of March and the European Union

Dont forget March 15, and what happened 44 BC. The founder of the Roman Republic, Julius Caesar was assassinated and killed by members of the Roman Senate. It is the worlds most famous political murders.

The problem was that they didn`t know what to do after Caesars death, so they went from a republican system of government and became an empire. This is actual today. The democracy is under attack.

 

 

It should be understood that the Optimate and the Populare were not political parties in conflict with each other but, rather, political ideologies which many people shifted toward and from, regardless of class in society.

Caesar was assassinated by a group of rebellious senators, and a new civil war broke out. The constitutional government of the Republic was never fully restored, and the Roman Empire began. Rome finally became an empire at the end of the 1th century BC.

British historian Edward Gibbon argued in The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire» (1776) that the Romans had become decadent, they had lost civic virtue.

Glen W. Bowersock has remarked; “We have been obsessed with the fall: it has been valued as an archetype for every perceived decline, and, hence, as a symbol for our own fears.” It remains one of the greatest historical questions, and has a tradition rich in scholarly interest.

Europe has since the fall of Rome been, not only Euro Zone, but Danger Zone. Are you able to count all the wars in Europe since the fall of Rome? I wrote about the Revolution of 1848 on May 6th last year. We now see many similarities in Europe today.

The Revolution of 1848 was also known as the Spring of Nations or Springtime of the Peoples. It was a series of political upheavals throughout Europe in 1848. It remains the most widespread revolutionary wave in European history.

The revolution was essentially democratic in nature, with the aim of removing the old feudal structure and creating independent national states. Over 50 countries were affected, and important factors were widespread dissatisfaction with political leadership and the upspring of nationalism to name a few.

Now, it is 2017, and many of the same things going on. Political turmoil, Populism and Nationalism.

Britain voted to leave the European Union last summer, and Netherland can be the next country to follow. But how?

The blond populist Geert Wilders must win the election in Netherland. He is the anti-Islam leader of the Dutch far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and he is riding high on a wave of populism. Geert Wilders has pledged to close the Netherlands’ borders, shut down mosques and leave the euro and EU if he gets into power.

Wilder`s problem is that no one is willing to form a coalition with him, and that will result in a political mess after the election. There are very few, if any parties, that will go into Parliament with him.

A triumph for Wilders would emboden French voters to back far-right Presidential candidate Marine Le Penn in elections beginning next month. Le Penn will also withdraw France from the Eurozone, and that would be a big threat to the euro.

Latest polls tell us that Mark Rutte will win and Wilders will get about 19 out of 150 seats in Netherland. In France, Le Penn leads the first poll, but she is widely expected to lose in the second round.

We are living in a critical moment right now.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | December 18, 2013 · 1:08 pm

Outrageous predictions for 2014

It is difficult to be in the market under circumstances we have now. We are at the top in many indices, and many of the great blue chips have gone too far. Netflix, Amazon, Yelp, Twitter and Pandora media (better called “the fat five), are all bubbles waiting to plunge about 50%.

The average stocks in the U.S is not expensive, but they are not cheap either. It is better to look at the European and the emerging markets. Gold is still declining but it seems to bottoming out soon, ready to take off again. Gold dropped -1.13% yesterday ahead of tomorrow’s Fed Statement and Press Conference. So, what are we suppose to do next year?

Every year, Saxo Bank are publishing a list with some forecasts and predictions about the markets next year, and those predictions can have huge impact of the global markets.

This time they have predicted scenarios from a return to a “Soviet-style economy” in the EU (?) and a huge recession in Germany. They also predict a failure of the QE program in the U.S. Wow!

These ten predictions are not the official forecast of the bank for 2014, chief economist Steen Jakobsen said, and they are not ment to be “pessimistic”.

2014 should be the year in which a mandate for change not only becomes necessary, but is also implemented, he said. History tells us that changes have always come as a result of the thorough failure of the old way of doing things.

What will happen to the U.S and German economy next year? Will they reach “escape velocity” next year, or will they slow to zero growth? What about the European Parliament? Will the upcoming elections herald a new anti-EU coalition?

Those predictions are made to remind us that “a wake-up call is necessary as the alternatives would leave us with a dire outlook, Jakobsen said.

The ten ‘outrageous predictions’ are listed below.

1. EU creates a new wealth tax on savings above €100,000 in a return to a ‘Soviet-style economy’.

2. The European Parliament elections see the creation of a strong anti-EU alliance, to include the UK Independence Party.

3. The bubble bursts in the five US technology giants that have been trading at a huge premium to market valuations this year – Amazon, Netflix, Twitter, Pandora Media, Yelp.

4. The yen falls below Ұ80 per dollar, as investors pile back into the currency, forcing the Bank of Japan to delete its government debt in order to escape deflation.

5. The US recovery slows down, bringing deflation worries back to the fore.

6. Far from tapering, the Federal Reserve increases QE to $100bn per month and focuses on mortgage bond purchases to support a flagging housing market.

7. The price of Brent crude falls to $80 per barrel, as producers fail to slow down production.

8. Germany enters an unexpected recession as economic activity slows.

9. The French CAC 40 index drops 40% as local politics takes a turn for the worse.

10. The currencies of the ‘Fragile Five’ countries – Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Turkey – fall 25% against the US dollar.

Take a good look at all the markets today. The Fed`s two day meeting with the FOMC statement release ends today at 2pm ET. If they start to taper or not, I think it will be very sensitive to all the markets.

I don`t listen to what the FOMC members say before those meetings. I do only listen to one person, and that is the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. He is the man. Is he going to taper? I don`t think so, but let`s wait and see later on today….

News today: Building Permits & Housing Starts at 8:30am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, Fed Statement at 2:00pm, FOMC Press Conference at 2:30pm.

FOMC-dice

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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