American shale revolution

Asian markets slid today and Europe is trading down too, but U.S seems to open up today. This week will be very interesting. I think many investors are nervous now, as day traders love this volatile markets. It was a nice move for day traders on friday.

Not a good week for stocks last week. S&P had its worst week since 2012. Dow fell 318 points alone on friday. Will this sell off continue? A lot of earnings report are coming out this month. Janet Yellen is the next Fed chairman from february 01, but the next BIG news is the FOMC statement on Wednesday at 10:330am. Pay attention to this.

The U.S montly trade deficit was at its lowest in four years and that is because of the American shale revolution. That`s good news from a new report I was reading this weekend. This is good news for the growth, jobs and for the country.

Libya is in disarray and Iran and Iraq are thumbing their noses at Saudi Arabia by pledging to break OPEC’s 3 million bpd quota. This is bad news for OPEC, and if this is the new trend, this is very good news for America.

People are scared now before the FOMC statement on Wednesday. That`s why we see the sell-off now. What a power they have. Everything they say will move the markets, so what are the news on Wednesday? What about the tapering?

Safe-heaven currencies like Swiss franc and Yen slid today as the dollar surged. If the Fed starts to reduce its monetary stimulus this week, the U.S dollar will continue to rise. That will hit the Emerging markets currencies.

Reports today: New Home Sales at 10:00am.

oil-shale

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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Gold is up

CEO Jamie Sokalsky in Barrick Gold (ABX) expects the reserves and productions will fall after the biggest annual price decline in gold since 1981. They will recalculate its reserves at a gold price of $1,100 an ounce and that is down from $1,500 an ounce a year ago. That is resulting in a decrease in its reserve base.

Gold production will be lower this year because of assets sales, while they are focusing on more profitable mines. They have closed its Pierina mine in Peru and in addition they have reduced the output from the Cortez gold mine in the U.S.A. They also expect the Aldivar copper mine in Chile to produce less in 2014.

Sokalsky expects a write down on its Pascua-Lama project and they are looking for other asset-value reductions. Barrick Gold is the biggest whale among the gold stocks, but along with the declining gold price we have seen, Barrick`s Market Cap has plummeted 50%.

Barrick`s management has been effective and not wasted their time during the declining gold prices. They have used the time wisely, sold assets, reduced the debt, conserved cash, implemented accounting impairments, and still cutting costs. They are moving in the right direction with a lower cost structure.

This story is not unique, as it is the same story for Newmont (NEM), and Goldcorp (GG). As the gold prices has plummeted we have been witnessed to a massive write-down. Barrick Gold is down -43,3% (1 YR), but are up 9,5% so far in 2014. Is the bottom behind us?

Newmont is down -43,8% (1 YR), but are up 9,3% in 2014. Goldcorp is down only -35,5% (1 YR), up 11% this year. The Junior Gold miners ETF (GDXJ) is up 19,5% this year (-53,8% 1 YR), while Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) is up 12,3% (-46,8% 1 YR).

Endeavour Silver Corp (EXK) has skyrocket this year, trading at $24,50. Up 24% in 2014. Silver Standard Resources Inc (SSRI) is up 20,1% so far this year. Silvercrest Miners (SVLC) is up 19%, Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd (SZSMF) is down 1,1%, while Taho Resources Inc (TAHO) is up 6,2% in 2014. Silver seems to be a better investment so far.

No major reports today.

gold_price_wobbles_as_liquidation_intensifies

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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Netflix up 17,96%

Netflix (NFLX) surged 17,96% in after-hours trading yesterday after reporting better than expected results in their Q4 report. They have a strong gain in new subscribers in the U.S, and we are talking about video-streaming subscribers. They added 2,33 million new U.S video-streaming members and have total of 33,4 million subscribers. With the International subscribers, they now have more than 44 million members.

Netflix say they will continue to grow in Q1 this year, and the forecast is 2,25 million new members in the U.S and 1,6 million new users in overseas markets. They say that they expect to report earnings of 78 cents a share in Q1.

The company reported earnings of $48 million, or 79 cents a share, on $1,18 billion in revenue in Q4, 2013. In Q4, 2012, they reported profit of $8 million, or 13 cents a share, on sales of $945 million. A sales growth of 23,30%. That is a great lift.

Netflix is trading at $333,73, and that is 80 times the 2014 EPS estimate. The stock is overvalued, and fair value is estimated to be $180. Netflix will grow, but they have big competition. Don`t forget the history in this stock. This stock very volatile. So far this year, the stock is down -9,4%.

Just for fun; let`s take a look at their ROA compared with some of their competitors. Have a look at the chart below:

Company Market Cap ROA
Target 37,3 Bill 5
Dish Network`s 25,9 Bill 4
Netflix 19,8 Bill 1,7
Verizone 135,4 Bill 0,9
Amazone 185,2 Bill 0,5
Blockbuster 1,5 Mill -20

It has been a great week so far, with no «noice» from the Fed. No major reports this week, except today. Probably not so good for day traders who trade on these news, but great for the investors, so they can focusing on the stock market, company`s earnings and all the Q4 reports coming out at the moment.

Reports today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9:00am, Existing Home Sales at 10:00am, Crude Oil Inventories 11:00am.

Reed Hastings

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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Picking stocks

Now it is time for investors to do their homework. How do you find the right stocks? How do you find the best stocks? What is the magic number? First of all; you must know what makes a stock good and other stocks bad. So, what is the magic numbers?

Finding great stocks is not so difficult as you think. Unfortunately, the magic numbers doesn`t exist. But it is some metrics you have to look for that is more important than others. I often start to look at a company’s ROA (return on assets).

ROA (return on assets)

This is the leading measure of a company`s effectiveness. It tells you how effective the management are using the assets. ROA tells you what earnings were generated from invested capital (assets). It is best to compare a company`s ROA with the previous ROA numbers, or you can compare it with a similar company.

Definition of Return On Assets – ROA

An indicator of how profitable a company is relative to its total assets. ROA gives an idea as to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. Calculated by dividing a company’s annual earnings by its total assets, ROA is displayed as a percentage. Sometimes this is referred to as “return on investment”.

The formula for return on assets is:

ROA = Net Income/Total Assets

Note: Some investors add interest expense back into net income when performing this calculation because they’d like to use operating returns before cost of borrowing.

Both debt and equity is the company`s assets and they are used to fund the operations of the company. The higher the ROA number is, the better it is. In this case, it tells you that the company are earning more money on less investments and that is a sign of an effective company.

For example:

Company A has a net income of $2 million. Total assets is $5 million. ROA is 40% (2/5 = 40%).

Company B has a net income of $2 million. But the assets is twice as much as Company A, which is $10 million. ROA is 20% (2/10 = 20%).

Who is the best? Company A have a higher ROA than Company B, which means Company A is better than Company B. It is because Company A is better to convert its investments into profit.

This is why investors sometimes want to change a company’s leader, because they are not satisfied with their earnings. The leader and a company`s management are doing a very important job. Not only for their company and their employees, but also for the investors and not at least the society. It`s all about makes big money with small investments. That`s it.

Also remember that ROA is often referred to as ROI, and we add the interest expense to ignore the costs associated with funding those assets. So, ranking company’s by size is meaningless. It`s interesting to know the size of a company, but ranking companies by size of their assets is completely meaningless. It`s better to look at ROA and how a company is better than another to squeeze profit from its assets, regardless of size.

ROA is far away from being the ideal investment tool. The return numerator of net income can be suspect. Assets as we know, is also numbers that is valued in the balance sheet.

You can`t always compare companies with ROA, because the assets is not what it seems to be. You can`t see people, ideas, trademark, brands or patents in the assets. A grocery have more assets than an online techno company. The techno company`s assets will be understated, and it`s ROA may get a questionable boost. Two of the worlds biggest company`s is Apple and Exxon Mobile. You can`t compare them. Two different comany`s in two different industries with two different assets. Appel`s ROA is 19,3, while Exxon Mobil`s ROA is 10. 

All in all; ROA makes it easier for investors to recognize good stocks and minimizing the risk of doing a bad investment with bad stocks.

No major reports today.

shinybull_for_sitesite-7

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Salesgrowth

What is the revenue of all these social media companies? Snapchat say they have 400 million snaps per day, and Pinterest say they have 1,5 million pins per day. Wow. It sounds like they both are big companies. Are they? Snapchat has been valued at $2 billion with about 30 million active users.

What about Facebook? They also have a lot of users, but how many of them is active users? And what about Twitter? Nasdaq is now trading at 4197,58. Last time Nasdaq was trading at about 4000 was in 1999. You all know that the dot-com-bubble bursted in year 2000.

Today I want to show you an overwiev of the media companies. Who is the biggest, and who have the biggest growth? You know it is more easy for small companies to have a huge growth than the big one, so don`t look at the growth isolated.

Below you will see a list of 15 different companies in the media online business. The first list is a list with the companies with the best growth. No matter what the market cap is. Take a look at the list below, which is a list that compares the sales growth in 2013.

Company Salesgrowth Market Cap
Qihoo 360 Technology 106,20% 9,88
Youku Tudou 76,80% 5,12
Yelp! 67,50% 4,63
LinkedIn 60,10% 25,58
Facebook 51,70% 137,17
Baidu 47,40% 60,94
Tencent holdings 4,80% 119
Sohu.com 32,2 2,76
Yandex 28,60% 13,89
Sina 28,1 5,52
Google 13,90% 371,74
Groupon 8,00% 7,62
Pandora Media 0,00% 5,26
Yahoo! -0,60% 40,58
Zynga -27,00% 3,18

The blue shows the companies with salesgrowth in plus, and the yellow, shows the company which is in status quo. Red speak for them selves. Take a look at Zynga. Salesgrowth last year was down -27%.

Next list is about the market cap where Google is the biggest. Take a look:

Company Salesgrowth Market Cap
Google 13,90% 371,74
Facebook 51,70% 137,17
Tencent holdings 40,80% 119
Baidu 47,40% 60,94
Yahoo! -0,60% 40,58
LinkedIn 60,10% 25,58
Yandex 28,60% 13,89
Qihoo 360 Technology 106,20% 9,88
Groupon 8,00% 7,62
Sina 28,10% 5,52
Pandora Media 0,00% 5,26
Youku Tudou 76,80% 5,12
Yelp 67,5 4,63
Zynga -27,00% 3,18
Sohu.com 32,20% 2,76

No major reports today.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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