by | February 10, 2014 · 2:24 pm

Gold is up

Gold continue to go up, now trading at 1271,50. Nikkei rose +1,77%. Up 255,93 points. The European markets is mixed today, but are not moving much. The U.S markets ended the week in green on friday. Dow +1,06%, S&P 500 +1,33% and Nasdaq +1,69%. Nokia is up 9,27%. Very good!

I will look for earnings reports from Tata Motors (TTM) today. Forecast EPS is $0,87 ($0,47 last year). The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Dec 2013. Many other earnings reports is coming out later this week.

Alibaba is trying to take full control over AutoNavi Holdings (AMAP). The stock is trading at $16,54. Up +7,26%. AutoNavi holdings is up 27,87% AH. EPS growth: -128%. Revenue growth: -6,02%. (Last Qtr).

Take a look a the gold this week. It`s still moving up. Sometimes it goes in the opposite direction of the equity market, and sometimes not. They can follow each other, so don`t forget to set «stop loss» if you are daytrading.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 7, 2014 · 12:34 pm

Best day in 2014!

Market update

Wall Street rallies on labor market data. Dow Jones bounced 1,22%. S&P 500 rocketed 1,24%. The best day for stocks so far in 2014! Technology sector is up 1,39%, but Twitter suffered yesterday. They went in another direction. Not a surprice for the most expensive stock in our universe.

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Twitter (TWTR) -24,16%

Twitter stock plummeted yesterday, but I am not suprised. EPS: -1,69. The record high is 74,73 and that price was insane. Now the stock is trading at 50,03. Down -15,94 points only yesterday. It seems like the stock will open up in a red territory today too.

LinkedIn’s (LNKD) site traffic declines. The site traffic fell Q/Q in Q4. Unique visitors dropped by 3M Q/Q to 139M (rose by 23M Y/Y). Page views fell by 1B to 10,6B (rose by 800M Y/Y). User engagement for mobile app traffic aren`t going as planned. Only 25% of the revenue is coming from ads. LinkedIn is less directly dependent on site/app traffic than Twitter and Facebook.

They spent +57% Y/Y on Sales and marketing. 35% of revenue is spent and that is $157,2M. R&D is up to +46% to $113,1M. Registered users rose by 18M Q/Q to 277M. Stocks follow earnings, and if you don`t deliver EPS, you`re not going get any love from the market. This stock will open down about -7% today.

Yelp (YELP) +18,9%

Revenue rose by 72% Y/Y to $70,7 mllion in the quarter. Revenue from 2012 ($137,6) rose to $233 million in 2013. That is up 69%. Net loss is $2,1 million in the quarter. It`s adjusted EBITDA improved by 470% Y/Y to $10,4 million. 39% increase in average unique monthly visitors to 120 million. Local business accounts increased by 69% Y/Y, to 67,200.

Yelp Outlook for Q1 – 2014: Yelp expects revenue to be about $73,5 – 74,5 million. Growth will approximately 60% compared to Q1 in 2013. For the full year, Yelp projects net revenue to about $353 – $358 million. Shares are up 299,7% (1YR). That`s not bad for a company without any profit in 2013.

Reports today:

08:30:00 USD Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast: 185K Previous: 74K
08:30:00 USD Uneployment rate Forecast: 6,70% Previous: 6,70%

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 6, 2014 · 2:32 pm

Twitter -17,7%

Market Update:

It`s all green in Europe today. Europe bounce back from an oversold technical level. Nikkei slid in a choppy session in Asia today. It seems like the U.S market will open up today, but I am very excited about the Social media stocks today. Take a look at Twitter. Down -17,7% AH!

Twitter:

Twitter beat the Wall Street expectations. The MAU`s growth is slowing, CEO Dick Costolo in Twitter (TWTR) said. He admitted on the CC Twitter needs to become more easy for new users to grasp. Loss in Q4 is $511 million. Revenue totaled $243 million (up 116%). Investors expected revenue of $218 million. Twitter beat the investors expectations on their first earnings report as a public company.

The blogging site had 241 million average monthly active users as of December 31 (Up 30% in one year). Mobile users is about 184 million in Q4 (up 37%). They added «only» 9 million users in the last 3 months.

Advertising revenue totaled $220 million (up 121% Y/Y), and mobile advertising accounts for more than 75% of that.

Twitter ended Q4 with about 1/5 as many MAU`s as Facebook have. Costolo belive he has the right solution: Adding more conversational features and rich media content. Enabling the discovery of content based on topics. Interactions per Timeline view continue to grow, he said.

He also said that retweets and favorites are up over 35%. Twitter are working with e-commerce opportunities and said they`re just scratching the surface when it comes to ad monetization. Twitter will take a conservative approach to ad load for the sake of the user experience.

After Twitter and Pandora (P) provided disappointed Q4 reports, Facebook (FB) and LinkedIn (LNKD) faced a big sell-off. Facebook is down 2,3% AH, and LinkedIn is down 1,6%. Twitters shareholder GSV Capital (GSVC) is also down 6,7%. Not a good day for social media companies today.

Twitter beat Q4 estimates and are above consensus revenue guidance. They reported a 7% Q7Q drop in timeline views and slowing monthly active user growth.

Pandora also beat Q4 estimates, but reported only in-line revenue and issued below-consensus guidance. LinkedIn will report after the close tomorrow.

Reports today:

08:30:00 EUR ECB press conference
08:30:00 USD Trade balance
08:30:00 USD Unemployment claims

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 5, 2014 · 2:15 pm

Is this a rebound?

The Dow ended the Tuesday up 0,47%, and the S&P 500 added 0,76%. The key now is the U.S data, and any missing of data will change the game. The bounce in Nikkei led the investors to bid up the safe-heaven yen, with the dollar dipping to 101,36 yen from an early top of 101,77.

Nikkei rose 1,2% today, and it was far away from testing the 200 MA. The index has shed 14% so far in 2014 and rose 50% in 2013. In Japan they are concerned about the Fed tapering and I assume that Japan knows everything about QE.

Europe is up followed by good news from Euro zone Composite PMI, which measure business activity across thousands of companies and tells investors about the economic health. It climbed to 52,9 in January (previous: 52,1). That was the highest reading since June 2011. Great! These numbers tell us the recovery of the 18-member block is broad-based.

Good economic data helped the Euro zone to break a three-day run of losses on Wednesday. It helped the investors nerves, before the ECB`s monthly meeting on thursday.

Federal Reserve is lowering the stimulus that helped the equity`s to gain 123% the last four years. S&P 500 rose 173% from the bottom in 2009. That is a bull market that is a year older than the average since World War II.

Economists are more bullish now than 2011 when the S&P 500 was on the brink of a bear market. IMF raised its global growth projection to 3,7%. That`s up from October estimate of 3,6%.

Reports today:

08:15:00 ADP Non-Farm Employment change Forecast: 191K Previous: 238K
10:00:00 ISM Non-manufactoring PMI Forecast: 53,6 Previous: 53

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 4, 2014 · 2:18 pm

The new wallets

Apple:

Yes, the new wallets is here. Fact is that the new wallets have been on the market for many years now. Some people expected to see a Near Field Communication chip for mobile payments when Apple launched the new Iphone 5 a couple of year ago, but ended up disappointed.

 

Smartphones are predicted to be the new wallets and forecast for mobile payments in 2014 is $7,5B. In 2013 it was $2,1B, and $0,6B in 2012. If this is taking off we can see mobile payments of $70B in 2016. Mobile payments in China have doubled in 2013 and ended up to 218,6 Billion Yuan.

 

The most critical element in this business is the security, but Apple seems to have the right solution for all the customers waiting to pay by smartphones. Apple signed a new patent (#20140019367) on January 16.

 

What about their competitors like Visa, Mastercard, Paypal and others? They should do something before it is too late. Once Apple start with their new mobile payment solution, the card users will slowly disappear. This threath is too big to ignore I think.

 

Stocks & Commodities:

Petrobras (PBR) plummeted 5,8% yesterday and that is an eight year low level, now trading at 13.85 Brazilian reais ($5.69). This is the lowest since july 29, 2005. The overall markets plummeted yesterday, like they historically do when a new Fed chairman comes in, but Twitter went up +1,16%. What is going on here? Any report surprise?

 

Gold is not taking off despite the bearish markets we see now. Right now the gold is trading at $1.252.80, down -0,52%. Silver is also down today, trading at $19.35, down -0,30%. Copper is trading at $319.85, up today +0,47%.

 

Reports:

10:00:00 Factory Orders Forecast: -1,90% Previous: 1,80%
10:00:00 Economic Optimism Forecast: 46,1 Previous: 45,2

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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