by | February 17, 2014 · 12:10 pm

What goes up must come down

It`s all up today. Asia is up. Europe is up. Commodities like gold, silver and copper is also up. It`s all green. We`re at the top in the Stock market. The commodities has declined and are at the bottom. It looks like we are in the beginning of a new bull market in the commodities.

Many times you will see stocks rising up day after day, year after year. You might think you can`t buy this stock now, because it is already up 200%. You can lose a lot of money when you think like that. The point is to know that the stock price is a reflection of the company.

Stocks and indices often goes up within a trendline, but within that trend line, it is normal to see some corrections. Think about Warren Buffets company Berkshire Hathaway. That stock went up from $455 to $7250 per share in only five years.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | February 14, 2014 · 12:41 pm

Gold & Silver is up

Wow! Gold is trading above $1300, up +0,82%. Right now gold is trading at $1310,80. Silver is doing much better today. Up +2,87%, trading at $20,93. Copper is up too. This looks like a bull market.

All U.S indices went up yesterday, but Nikkei sled today. Down -1,53%. All the European stocks is up today after great GDP data. This is the seventh rise is eight sessions.

In two of the largest economies in the Euro zone, which is Germany and France, the economic growth exceeded the investors expectations in the fourth quarter. This offered a hope of a much better and robust 2014.

The German growth expanded 0,4%, while the French growth expanded 0,3%. Italy are waiting for a new prime minister with Enrico Letta due to resign today. He must leave the Democratic Party. Italy growth is back for the first time since mid-2011.

Gold

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 13, 2014 · 2:14 pm

Reports today

Nikkei slid -1,79% and Europe is in red territory today. Down today after rising up some days now. Europe is down because of some disappointed earnings from blue-chips companies.

New reports today is among others; retail sales which is Business inventories that are the dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity.

Inventories tend to rise when economic conditions are strong; since sales are rising at the same time, the inventory-to- sales ratio may remain stable, or rise at a very slow pace. Inventories tend to drop when economic conditions are weak; since sales are falling at the same time, the inventory-to-sales ratio may remain relatively stable. The I- S ratio then begins to rise as sales fall more quickly than inventory growth. Data Source: Haver Analytics.

Market Consensus before announcement

Business inventories in November were up 0.4 percent versus a strong 0.8 percent rise in business sales, the strongest sales gain since May, that left the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.29. Retail inventories, the second largest component of the report and the fresh data in the latest report, likewise showed no change with the stock-to-sales ratio steady at 1.43.

Jobless claims
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.

Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

Market Consensus before announcement

Initial jobless claims for the February 1 week fell a sharp 20,000 to a lower-than-expected 331,000. The 4-week average, at 334,000, trended 15,000 below the month-ago comparison.

Continuing claims, however, did not show improvement. Continuing claims for the January 25 week rose 15,000 to 2.964 million with the 4-week average up 26,000 to a 2.986 million level that was more than 100,000 above the month-ago trend.

Reports today:

08:30:00am ET USD Jobless claims
08:30:00am ET USD Retail sales

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 12, 2014 · 2:07 pm

The other currency

The U.S stocks surged yesterday as the Fed and Janet Yellen said they would continue the central bank’s policy of providing monetary stimulus to bolster the economy. This is music in the investors ears!

 

«What would cause the committee to consider a pause in tapering is a notable change in the outlook,» Janet Yellen said. Republicans don`t want to fight anymore, so he house voted to raise the government`s borrowing l limit. This will continue until March 2015.

 

Asian and European stocks is up today, as the investors cheered Janet Yellens stance. Gold is down today. USD have always had an interesting relationship with Gold. When gold is rising the dollar has declined in the long term, but that is not true, in the short term, so the relationship can be tenuous at best. Take a look at the charts, and you can see for yourself. You can see a strong negative correlation to a strong positive correlation and back again.

 

This relationship can be linked to the Bretton Woods System. International settlements were made in U.S dollars and the U.S goverment promised to redeem dollars at a fixed gold rate. Bretton Woods Systems was dissolved in 1971. When gold is discussed, talk of the U.S dollar usually ensues.

 

Gold and U.S dollars can be seen as a trading pair like EUR/USD or other currency pairs, but it is important to remember that gold and currencies are dynamic and have more than one simple input.

 

Gold is impacted by far more than just U.S dollar, inflation or war. Gold can be traded all around the world as a global commodity and it reflects global sentiment. Not only a sentiment of one economy or group of people.

 

It seems like a new bullish trend have started, but be careful and take a look at the gold, equity markets and the U.S dollars during the 2008 financial crises. Gold plummeted like the stock market, and the U.S dollar skyrocketed. This is just a reminder.

Gold

 

Reports today:

 

10:30:00am EUR ECB Precident Drahi speeks        
10:30:00am USD Crude oil inventories        
01:01:00pm USD 10-y bond Auction        
02:00:00pm USD Federal budget Balance        

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | February 11, 2014 · 1:36 pm

Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies

An uneventful trading session yesterday made it a quiet session. The U.S indices finished up a few points. Dow +0,05%, S&P 500 +0,16% and Nasdaq +0,54%. Gold is running fast now. Trading at 1285,01. It seems like the market will open up today, but the rest of the day will be interesting.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is testifying before the House Financial Service Committee. The testimony comes in two parts: first part is a prepared statement that is releases before the testimony. The second part is a Q&A part.

As a Fed chairman/woman you need to be careful for what you say. Wrong word can be a disaster in the stock markets and vica verse. Therefore; the second part in the testimony can be a very interesting moment for the traders.

Gold rose today on expectations that the Fed Chair Janet Yellen will stay the course in winding down bullion-frendly monetary stimulus. What will Janet Yellen say today? The financial markets are hoping for reassurance that the Federal Reserves bond purchases will continue for a long time to come. Gold also rise up on worries over debt-ceiling talk. Silver is trading at $20,04.

Janet Yellen has served the Fed in different roles over the past 36 years. In this testimony she has a unique chance to reintroduce her self to the rest of the world. She need to be able to answer questions about the unemployment rate. What is the bottom line? What is the expectations about the growth? How fast and how long will it take to grow in the long run? Wages growth or inflation?

Reports today: Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies at 10:00am.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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