Uber – a Taxi killer?

 

Uber is a venture-funded startup and transportation network company based in San Fransisco, California, that makes mobile apps that connects passengers with drivers of vehicles for hire and ridesharing services. The company arranges pickups in dozens of cities around the world.

Uber logo

Uber drivers had cars such as Lincoln Town Cars, Cadillac Escalades, BMW 7 Series and Mercedes-Benz S550 sendans. After 2012, Uber added a wider selection of cars to market to a broader cross-section of the market, called UberX.

Cars are reserved by sending a text message or by using a mobile app. Using the Apps, customers can track their reserved car`s location. The company has not released the names of its investors, but it has been widely reported that Fidelity Investments leads the investment.

Uber is probably the biggest Taxi-killer in history. Three days ago, in a concerted action, taxis blocked roads in major European cities in protest against what they perceive as a threat to their livelihood by companies such as Uber.

The cabbies contended that Uber and similar smartphone app-based services have an unfair advantage because they`re not subjected to the same kinds of fees and regulations placed on taxi’s. Uber is controversial.

Uber`s pricing is similar to metered taxis although all hiring and payment is handled exclusively through Uber and not with the driver personally. If the Uber car is travelling at a speed greater than 11 mph, the price is calculated on a distance bases.

Otherwise, the price is calculated on a time basis. At the end of a ride, the complete fare is automatically billed to the customer’s credit card. Uber has said that its high prices are the premium that the customers pay for a cab service that is not only reliable but also punctual and comfortable.

During holiday times, Uber increases its prices to «surge price» levels to reach an economic equilibrium by attracting more drivers. During New Year`s Eve 2011, prices were as high as seven times normal rates, causing outrage in response.

Uber was founded as UberCab by Garrett Camp and Travis Kalanick in 2009. One year later they received venture funding from a group of super angel investors in Silicon Valley, California, including Chris Sacca.

In 2011, Uber raised more than $11,5M in Series A funding led by Benchmark Capital. In later 2011, Uber further raised $32 million in funding from several investors that include Goldman Sachs, Menlo Ventures and Bezos Expeditions bringing their total funding amount to $49,5M.

The company entered the London market in July 2012 with an initial staff of about 90 drivers of Mercedes, BMW and Jaguar. One week ago, Uber announced $1,2 billion in funding in its latest round. The round values Uber at around $17 billion pre-money.

Several drivers have credited Uber for increasing their potential earnings by 30%. The company faces competition from lower-cost real-time ridesharing startups such as Lyft and SideCar. To compete at lower price levels, Uber has introduced UberTaxi (partnerships with local taxi commissions) and UberX (non-luxury cars such as Toyota Prius Hybrids).

Last month, London black-cab drivers, members of the Licensed Taxi Drivers Association, threatened to disrupt traffic in June if Transport for London (TfL) refuses to ban Uber in London. The New York City Taxi and Limousine Commissions has discouraged drivers from participation in Uber, resulting in suspension of Uber`s New York taxi service in October 2012.

Uber has been accused in several jurisdictions of illegal taxicab operation. It`s understandable that they changed their name from UberCab to Uber. Following a social media campaign by Uber`s users, the D.C City Council voted to formally legalize Uber`s service, with no minimum fare.

They have more competitors to come. China`s biggest taxi app is Didi and they books over 5 million rides a day! The company which is registered in the Cayman Islands, will do an IPO in three to five years in the U.S. Didi`s app is backed by Asia`s largest Internet company Tencent Holdings Ltd and their biggest competitor in China is Kuaidi, which is backed by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

Didi is owned by Beijing Xiaoju Keji Didi Dache Co and they are planning to have 1,500 employees at the end of this year. Kuaidi is owned by Hangzhou Kuaidi Technology Co., operates in a similar way and allows payments and rebates through Alibaba’s mobile-payment system, Alipay Wallet.

It`s gonna be a great battle between those apps in the future, and the largest player will win greater support when it comes to raising capital and that will in turn help them to grow and be bigger than their competitors.

 

 

Reports today:

08:30 a.m EST PPI m/m

08:30 a.m EST Core PPI m/m

09:55 a.m EST Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

 

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

Brazil and World Cup 2014

Now it is time for some action in Brazil. The opening match is between Brazil and Kroatia later on today. I will watch this match from Sâo Paulo live today and I think the pressure is on Brazil and their new superstar Neymar.

Brazil`s GDP is 4,3% in 2014. In 2010 their GDP was 7,53%, and that`s pretty good. Despite that growth, many people in Brazil is poor. Brazil ranks 49,3 in the Gini coefficient index, with the richest 10% of Brazilians receiving 42,7% of the nation`s income, while the poorest 34% receive less than 1,2%!

Brazil has serious problems with crime and roughly 23,8 homicides per 100,000 residents, muggings, robberies, kidnappings and gang violence are common. Police brutality and corruption are widespread.

We will probably not see much of Brazil`s slums on TV during the World Cup 2014. Poverty in Brazil is most visually represented by the various favelas, slums in the country`s metropolitan areas and remote upcountry regions that suffer with economic underdevelopment and below-par standards of living. Many people in Brazil feel angry about the World Cup 2014, as they belive the Brazilian government should spend money on other things that a World Cup.

This is the dark side of Brazil right now. Brazil has a huge business opportunity, and are among the favorite country`s in the Emerging Markets sector. Let`s see the bright side and sing along with Pitbull ft. Jennifer Lopez and Claudia Leitte and their hit song: WE ARE ONE!

Let`s talk about soccer. The dominant system in 2010 and 2012 was 4-2-3-1, and this will probably be the most utilised formation this time around too. There is a decent amount of variety across the 32 teams, and not everyone will deploy a four-man defence.

Jurgen Klinsmann has been experimenting with a diamond midfield system in order to get the best from the USA`s rampaging central midfielder Michael Bradley. Italy`s Cesare Prandelli could also use a diamond, or a 3-5-2 system, as the Italians remain the masters of tactical unpredictability. USA could be one of the most tactically distinct sides, with the use of a diamond.

Brazil`s Fred scored five goals in five games at the Confederations Cup last year. His role in Luiz Felipe Scolari`s side is to win aerial battles, hold up the ball and create space for Neymar, who cuts inside from the left. Neymar is Brazil`s new superstar and I really look forward to see him live on TV direct from Sâo Paulo later on today.

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

McDonald`s is growing

McDonald`s (MCD) is growing but that is slowly. It`s share price moved only 8% in 2013, and McDonald`s rewarded its shareholders with a 10% increase to its dividend. The surged 4% YTD. They delivered a high return on equity and their growth in its top and bottom lines was decent.

MCD

McDonald`s holds a market share of 31% in the fast food industry. How can McDonald`s continue to grow? Because the domestic market is saturated, they are now expanding in emerging markets, particularly China, where they have a great opportunity.

The U.S fast food industry is expected to grow 10% during the period of 2013 – 2018. Emerging markets are attractive to fast food players due to their large populations, fast population growth, concentration of younger consumers and growing demand for Western diets.

China is important for McDonald`s and it is the third largest market for the company after the U.S and Japan. They holds a 15% market share of China`s fast food market. They experience a strong growth in the region.

China`s fast food & takeaway market grew 80% from 2007 – 2012 to RMB 1 trillion ($162 billion). The market is expected to hit RMB 1,8 trillion ($292 billion) by 2017. All this is driven by economic growth in China, and McDonald`s is investing heavily in China to benefit from this growing market.

McDonald`s will open 1,600 new restaurants around the globe and spend $3 billion this year. China will get one of the biggest shares. They will open 300 locations in China, and that`s up from 250 last year and quadruple the number in 2004. Their goal is to have more than 2,000 restaurants in China by the end of 2014.

McDonald`s share price and earnings have underperformed relative to the S&P 500 and restaurants peers over the last 12 months. Have a look at the chart below. I have compared McDonald`s and S&P 500 so you could see by yourself.

MCD vs SPX

(Picture: McDonald`s vs S&P 500)

In my opinion; both McDonald’s and Burger King is now trying to be everything for everyone. Can you imagine Burger King selling you a salad? Or a wrap? Come on; what`s next? For all I know, they will start to sell sushi next week. In-N-Out Burger, Chick-fil-A and Five Guys haven`t changed their menu in years. A big menu is making McDonald`s slower.

Many switch to restaurants perceived as more natural, simple and healthy, like Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) or Taco Bell which is built on this trend. McDonald’s franchisees lose out and this will be a slowly process as franchisee satisfaction is driven so largely by cash flow. McDonald’s need to take drastic action on their meny complexity and food integrity. Before that I expect the share price to languish.

Reports today:

10:30 a.m EST Crude Oil Inventories
01:01 a.m EST 10-y Bond Auction
02:00 a.m EST Fedral Budget Balance

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

What – Is Apple down 85%?

Don`t panic if you think that the price of Apple Inc is down -85%, because it isn`t. It`s just your brokers fault. They have not changed the amount of shares as they were not prepared for the coming share split as we all saw in Apple Inc.

Apple

This is happening many times and I have seen that in stocks I have owned many times. So, what is going on here? Apple stock is cheaper because its 7 for 1 split went into effect. The Apple`s share price is back to a 2006 level, trading above $100.

In a traditional 2 for 1 split, all owners of common stock have their share counts doubled while the price is simply cut in half. Shares are now worth half as much as they were before, but there are twice as many available and the percent ownership of each shareholder is unchanged.

Most of the data surrounding stock splits seems quite bullish. In a study by Dr. David Ikenburry of Rice University, he found that stocks which split 2-1 on average outperformed the control group he created by 8% after a year and by up to 12% after three years. The study looked at stocks between 1975 and 1990.

Dr. David Ikenburry did another research including data from 3-1 and 4-1 splits and found that the results from 1990 to 1997 were practically identical to the findings from the original study. A study from 2003 from the Chinese and City Universities of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Polytechinic University corroborates Ikenburry`findings with similar evidence from the stock market in Hong Kong.

The reason why stocks is performing better after a stock split is probably because they become more affordable to smaller individual investors. They simply look cheaper. People are probably not willing to sink $600 into a single share of Apple, but they may be amenable to spend $400 on 4 shares after the 7-1 split. It`s more a psychological thing.

The Wharton School of Business found that institutions have increased their percent ownership in stocks from 34% in 1980 to 67% in 2010, and its widely believed that institutions like mutual funds are less perceptible to psychological biases like a lower sticker price than non-professionals.

Ikenburry belive that the stocks perform well when they split because the split itself is a signal of bullish sentiment from management. Apple hasn`t had a new product catalyst to ignite its fundamentals since the iPad was released in 2010.

This year CEO Tim Cook has promised several new types of products and that may be the reason Apple`s management has the confidence to split the stock. What could be worse for a CEO than taking a high value stock, splitting it into pieces, then see the face value fall even further sending investors into a panic?

Apple`s acquisition of Beats Electronics can make the stock go higher, but I don`t understand that Apple was so interested in their headphones. They could make their own at a cheaper price. Dr. Dre must, for all i know, have another plan with a new product we don`t know yet.

The music streaming business can be a good business, but so far it isn`t. They may be changing the strategy to make the $3 billion acquisition of Beats a boost and give Apple new income. Anyway; the acquisition of Beats Electronics is a sign of things to come. They have competitors. Google`s Youtube is the world`s largest music streaming service, and Youtube disclosed that 40% of its total users are coming from mobile devices.

 
Reports today:

10:00 a.m EST JOLTS Job Openings
10:00 a.m EST Wholesale Inventories m/m

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stock market

Weekend

Shinybull will be back on june 10.

shinybull_for_sitesite-7

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized