Category Archives: Stocks

by | May 6, 2014 · 2:26 pm

Wait and see

 

Japan`s Nikkei ticked down -0,19% to 14,457,51. The broader Topix was flat at 1,182,48. European stocks were also flat today. S&P 500 will open a little bit up today. Many investors are in a «wait and see mood».

 

The ISM services (The Institute for Supply Management`s Service sector Index) came out and showed pretty good growth, and I think that was a surprise for many investors. Apple shares are also up +1,4% at $600,96. Apple Inc closed above the level for the first time since October 26, 2012.

money2

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac gained with good help from the activist investor William Ackman. Fannie Mae was up 3% at $4,10 while Freddie Mac was up 6,3% at $4,23. B/E Aerospace jumped 9,3% to $97,22. That`s a great jump only on rumors.

 

5 billion shares changed hands on U.S exchanges and that is well below the 6,7 billion average for the last five sessions. Draghi and ECB is on hold and many are looking for any sign the ECB could embark on U.S style QE (Quantitative easing). They will wait for some time.

 

The rally in the Euro currency and the declining U.S dollar index today are helping to limit selling pressure in gold and silver. The U.S dollar index fell to a six-month low overnight. The Russia-Ukraine tension are still high with no major developments.

 

Gold is now trading at $1,314,40. Gold is weaker but still above $1,300.

 

 

Reports today:

08:30 a.m EST Trade balance

05:30 a.m EST FOMC Member Stein Speaks

 

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by | April 29, 2014 · 2:05 pm

Gold bugs is down

 

Asian stocks were little changed today, as the European markets are up. Many of the biggest companies reported earnings that beat estimates in Europe today. Nokia jumped 7% earlier today after naming a new CEO.

 

There was a lot of earnings reports, and many of them was better than estimated. So far so good, but the real big challenges now is Ukraina which is still unstable. LG Electronics Inc jumped 3,9% after posting first-quarter operating profit that doubled analysts estimates.

Samsung forecast profit will rally in Q2, lifted by strong sales of its new Galaxy S5. Q1 operating profit fell 3,3%. Operating profit at Samsung`s mobile division fell 1,2%. They shipped 113M phones and tablets, and margins were unchanged at 19,8%.

 

China is risky, but the Chinese government has made it clear it will do what it takes to make sure the economy doesn`t go too much on the wrong side. That makes investors less worried, because they have come through and shown it will act.

 

Japan markets were closed today for a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) Index traded at 12,3 times estimated earnings. S&P 500 Index traded at 15,9 times estimated earnings. The FED will probably announce a fourth straight stimulus cut at the conclusion of a two-day meeting tomorrow.

HUI 28.04.2014

(HUI Gold bugs Index)

 

Gold futures slipped and mining companies was among shares that fell today. Australia`s biggest gold producer, Newcrest Mining Ltd, slid 3,1% in Sydney. HUI slid yesterday too. Down -2,23%, closing at 223,65.

 

The next weeks is very important in the stock market. You all know the words «Sell in May and go away», but what puzzles investors is the lack of a fundamental trigger for a bigger drop in the stock market. Let`s follow the news in the coming weeks.

 

Todays reports is interesting. S&P/Case Shiller tells us about the change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas. It`s a leading indicator of the housing industry`s health.

 

Consumer Confidence is a survey of about 5000 households. It`s a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. Forecast is 82,9, and that`s up from previous 82,3.

 

Reports today:

 

09:00 a.m EST S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

10:00 a.m EST CB Consumer Confidence

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | April 28, 2014 · 2:28 pm

Gold above $1,300,00.

 

Gold, Silver and Copper is down, but Crude Oil (brent) is up today. Copper is trading at $309,20, down -0,03%. Silver is trading at $19,61, down -0,52%. Gold is down -0,04%, trading at 1,300,30. Crude Oil (brent) is trading at $109,91, up +0,30%.

Gold

Nikkei is down -0,98%, trading at 14,288, but Europe is up today. It`s green all over. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0,5%, led by health-care companies. AstraZeneca jumped 15% after Pfizer Inc confirmed its interest in taking over the U.K drugmaker for almost $99 billion.

 

U.S markets seems to open up today. That`s good after a big drop on Nasdaq on friday. Many tech stocks plummeted. Amazon slid nearly 10% on friday. I think that the investors didn`t like the guiding for the next months in Amazon.

 

Let`s follow the earnings right now. Many of the biggest blue-chips companies have beaten the investors estimates so far. That is pretty impressive, but not a surprise. Apple are earning big on their new expansion in China. A new big market have opened up.

 

With the FED meeting being held this week along with the U.S Labor Department releasing nonfarm employment data for April on Friday, it is expected not to see any big moves in the gold market. Let`s chech out the gold news this week. Gold is now above $1,300,00.

 

Reports today:

10:00 a.m EST Pending Home Sales m/m

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | April 25, 2014 · 2:02 pm

Is this an Amazon killer?

Gold is still below $1300, trading at $1,295,40. Up today +0,37%. Silver jumps +0,73% to $19,58. Crude Oil (brent) is down today -0,43% to $109,86, together with Copper which is down -0,21% to $308,15.

Nikkei was in a green territory today, trading at 14,429. Up +0,17%, also European markets are trading lower today. Investors hate war and some are worried as the Ukraine crisis deepens. The Euro Zone`s blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index slid -0,5% while the DAX is down -1,12%.

amazone

Amazon (AMZN) will open in a red territory today. About -2%. Amazon reported Q1 EPS of $0,23 (like forecast). Revenue for the quarter came in at $19,74 billion. That`s above consensus of $19,42 billion.

Amazon said in a report yesterday that Q2 2014 revenue will drop down to about $18,1 – 19,8 billion versus consensus of $19,03 billion. “We get our energy from inventing on behalf of customers, and 2014 is off to a kinetic start,” said founder and CEO, Jeff Bezos.

The delivery cost has been rising since 2009 and Amazon want to take more control over their increasing cost. With Amazon Fresh, they will deliver the goods direct to the customers and also control their customers shopping experience.

Millions of Amazon customers don`t know this and Amazon is growing at a faster speed than UPS and FedEx who are responsible for shipping the majority of Amazon`s packages. Last mile, as they call it, will revolutionize how shipments are delivered to millions of customers, they said.

Amazon will start to deliver on Sundays in the U.K. This is a smart move I think, because it lowers the cost and make it difficult for their customers in the same market. Like Alibaba who is planning to go public in a very short period of time.

Based on gross trading volume, Alibaba actually outsells Amazon and Ebay combined! They are more than just an e-commerce company. In addition, they now have a banking system without government intervention.

Many will be surprised to hear that this China-born innovator holds around 50% of China`s mobile and online payments market. Alibaba`s payment system is called Alipay and syncs directly with its B2C and C2C commerce sites, Taobao and Tmall. This is impressive.

Last year they entered the banking industry, but how is that possible without China`s government, a communist state that controls loans, interest rates, and all the banking system? It will be a great battle out there when Alibaba enters the U.S market.

Amazon is doing something right with their logistics and service I think, and what customers are looking for is low price and great service, delivered fast. Oops! Did I say low price? That is deflation and we don`t want that, do we?

Reports today:
09:55 a.m EST Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 24, 2014 · 1:13 pm

Stocks that beats the estimates

Facebook (FB) beats the estimates by $0,10. Q1 EPS came in at $0,34. Revenue of $2,5B, beats the estimates by $160M. The stock slid -2,65% yesterday, but will open up about 5% later on today. Facebook stock trades at about 100 times earnings.

They still succeed on mobile advertising. 0% of their revenue came from mobile in Q1 of 2012. Now, mobile ad revenue accounts for 59% of Facebook`s total ad revenue. That is a big surprise for many investors.

facebook logo

Facebook is growing fast and the trend seems to continue. They have a growing base of monthly and daily active users. They have higher quality ad products, new ad products and the marketers spend more on their ads. Ad revenue growth in Q1, 2014 is 82%.

Facebook have so far been the king of social media but its crown has started to slip. The biggest thing for Facebook right now is mobile. The big question for me is what the acquisition of the instant messaging service, WhatsApp, will give them in return? It remains to be seen.

Apple

Apple Inc (AAPL) slid yesterday, trading down -1,31% to $524,75, but the stock will open up about 7% later on today. The stock is down -6,5% so far in 2014. Mr Tim Cook crushed expectations in the quarter.

Apple Inc earned $11,62 compared to consensus of $10,21. They generated $45,65 billion in sales. It is not a surprise to see the stock pop up today! Iphone sales are very strong at 43,7 million units. It was expected to see a sale of about 38,5 million phones.

We can confirm that the relationship with China mobile (CHL) is a success. Mac sales were also solid at 4,1 million, but iPad is disappointing with a sale of 16,35 million compared to the expectations of 19,8 million.

I think that the iPhone launch in Chine will power growth in coming quarters. All this thanks to the big and fat company in China called China Mobile, which have over 700 million active smart phone users. China dominates the digital world and are a hotbed of crazy innovation!

Apple Inc added $30 billion to its buyback, upped its divided 8% and announced a 7 for 1 split in the stock. That is very unusual nowadays. At 9x earnings, Apple shares are attractive at current levels.

Apple has bought 24 different companies in the last 18 months, but they will wait to lauch any new products, and will likely have to wait until the second half of the year for product launches. These results make it clear Apple is in a position of strength and sky is not falling.

This is good news for investors concerned about the slow growth in Apple. Some investors are worried that Apple has lost its innovative edge under CEO Tim Cook. What I am looking for is a mobile payment solution. Come on Apple!

I know you have 800 million iTunes accounts. Will credit cards linked to them be leveraged for a payment service in the near future? Think different and be innovative. This is the way to make more growth and happy investors.

Microsoft (MSFT) is also down. Slid -0,75% yesterday. It`s understandable to see Facebook grow like they do, because they are young and fresh. But what about Microsoft and Apple? They are big and fat and slow.

They have been strong rivals for many years and they both have a turbulent history. Take a look at their growth. The seven last quarters, the growth has stopped at the most fundamental level. How are they going to grow in the future? Are we in a tech bubble?

Reports today:
08:30 a.m EST Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
08:30 a.m EST Unemployment Claims
08:30 a.m EST Durable Goods Orders m/m

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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