Category Archives: Stock market

Risk and reward

The U.S market fell yesterday and it was all red. Today the Asian market i up. Nikkei is up from a two week low. Gold is trading at $1334,50. Netflix is down -15% from it`s all time high. Are you willing to buy stocks in Netflix now? Or blue chips? What about risky small-cap stocks? Bonds?

Investing carries a certain amount of risk, but how much risk are you willing to take? What are you willing to pay for a stock? How much can you afford to lose? You have to look for risk and reward.

When you invest, you can get some pain, but you can also get some gain. That`s why you have to weigh the reward against the risk when you are investing. Understanding risk and reward is the key in investing in stocks and other financial papers.

You have all heard the words: “the higher the risk, the higher the potential return”. It`s very important to understand you own comfort level when you are investing. Then you will clearly understand the relationship between risk and reward.

Bank certificates of deposit (CDs) with a fedrally insured bank are also very secure. But the price for this safety is a very very low return on you investment. You can end up earning nothing when you calculate taxes on your gain and inflation.

To invest you need to think about the amount you are willing to put into the market. Before you invest, you must decide when you are willing to sell. How much rate of return or growth do you accept? And don`t forget fees, inflation and tax and the value of the dollar.

All those thing goes in different directions. That`s why many investors like to put different eggs in different baskets. Investors are diversifying their portfolios, and invest in different papers with various degree of risk. The goal is to take profit from a rising market, and to protect themself against dramatic losses in a down market.

New today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9:00am, New Home Sales at 10:00am.

risky.behavior

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stock market, Stocks

Alan Greenspan talks

Asian markets are down today. Hang Seng is down -1,36%. Nikkei -1,95%. KOSPI -0,99%. Shanghai -1,25%. All the European markets are down today. Everyone is red. Markets are falling, and Yen strengthened against the dollar following a bad miss for U.S employment data yesterday. It drops on concerns about central-bank tightening and debt write-offs at banks.

ECB plans to stress test 128 top eurozone banks over the next year and ECB intends to complete the testes by October 2014. ECB plans to stress test 128 top eurozone banks over the next year and ECB intends to complete the testes by October 2014. It aims to build confidence in the financial sector by improving transparency and implementing “corrective action” where needed.

Mr. Alan Greenspan is out with a new book, worries about the U.S economy. In his latest book, “The Map and the Territory,” he is talking about a warning to the FED balance expansion that may unleash inflation. We can see a price acceleration with today`s FED`s balances unchanged, ranging from 3% per unnum to double digits over the next five to six years, he writes.

Nobody have talked about a higher inflation, but instead the inflation has been on a record low level. That`s why Mr. Alan Greenspan is worried. The FED can prevent this threat by selling the bonds, and take the money back and out of the economy.

But; the FED are confident in plan 2: The FED pays interest on the money that the banks hold on deposit, and when the economy is getting better, the FED can increase the interest rate to induce the banks to hold the money on deposit. That can eliminate the inflationary pressure.

If the economy unexpectedly moves to go wild on a high gear, any credit tightening will run into political opposition. We have seen that before. It is also possible that the inflationary pressures won`t build until the economy has gone into a higher gear. It is possible for the FED to stay against inflationary and political pressures at the same time if the FED do their job right. News today: Import Prices at 8:30am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am.

Alan Greenspan

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stock market

Hi Tech Earnings

VIX have plummeted, and are now trading at 13,04. It simply tells us that there is no fear out there. Indices are setting new ATH, but Dow seems to be a little bit calm. Asian markets are up today. Nikkei rose to a three-week high and added 0,9% to 14,693,57. The highest since Sept. 27. The Topix advanced 0,6% to 1,212,36.

Google is for the fist time above 1000 dollars. Shares gained 13,8% and ended the trading session at $1011,41. Google`s earnings rised the S&P technology sector to outperform all other sectors. It rose 1,8%. Now it is time for Netflix and Apple. I look forward to see their earnings. This is money machines and they should beat the numbers, and that will make the momentum to continue this week.

U.S debt is now $17.075 trillion. That`s a lot of money, but I`m glad we can focus on the earnings now and not the debt. 62,2% of the 98 companies that have reportet earnings so far on S&P 500 have topped Wall Street`s earnings expectations. I look forward to the earnings this week.

5,57 billion shares was traded on friday and that is slightly above the average. Gold is back above the support level at $1300. If gold is not the safe heaven, VIX should be the new one. Right now VIX is closed at 13,04. News today: Existing Home Sales at 10:00am.

Apple

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stock market

Google up 8,18%

Wow! Google is up 8,18% on after-hours trading to $961,48 on Q3 earnings. What a marketing company!!! Yesterday, the Google`s CEO Larry Page, CFO Patrick Pichette and Chief business officer Nikesh Arora were on the conference call to report it`s Q3 earnings. Take a look at the chart below. You know what stock you should buy in 2005?

Google

Google`s gross revenue is up 12% to $14,98. Google are still growing, and their net income was $2,97 billion ($2,18 billion in Q3 last year). In 2012, their EPS (earnings per share) was $8,87, but now it is $10,74. Google beats the analysts expectations. The stock is trading at $961,48 in after-hours trading. Wow!

Belive it or not, but the big business is comming from paid clicks, which is clicks related to ads served on Googles site. At the same time the cost per click goes down. More and more people are clicking on the ads that Google serves.

Google income

Google, Facebook and Yahoo`s big challenge now is the consumers shift from PC to mobile phones/smartphones and tablets were the advertising rates are lower. The price marketers pay Google decreased by 8%, but the total amount of paid click rose 26% and that is the highest rate of growth on one year.

Yahoo by the way, are reporting an decrease in the revenue in Q3, and are lowering it`s financial outlook. Motorola lost $248 million in Q3. But what stock should you buy 12 months ago? It`s Yahoo. That stock is up about 100% in 12 months. That`s pretty good!

Leave a comment

Filed under Stock market, Stocks

Bullish Bullish Bullish

It`s optimism in Asia, and all the indices are up. All this of course because of the good news we all got from the Capitol Hill yesterday. They came to an agreement only two hours before the deadline, and now the can rise the limit and borrow more money.

The shutdown is also over and one million people can get back to work again. The agreement is only for a short periode of time. Desember 13 is the next date for a new agreement. That is for an agreement in a long run.

Stocks went up in the US after the good news and gold is up too. VIX is down 21,17%. Many hedgefunds have lost a lot of money yesterday. Right now gold is trading at $1306,10. So, what am I suppose to do now, you said? Well, as I have told you before, in the US, the P/E (price/earnings) is 20, which means Europe is a better bet, because P/E in Europe is 10.

Where do you find the bullish stocks, and when are you getting in, and when are you getting out. Many have asked me about that, and this is the point where many are struggling. Let`s look at the chart for Microsoft and Apple.

Msft and Aapl

If you bought those two stocks in the 80`s, you would have a huge gain today. But who is sitting on their stocks for 30 years? If you bought Microsoft in 2000, you would have lost your money today. If you bought Apple 10 years ago you would have a huge gain today. When to go in and out of a stock is sometimes difficult.

Many investors tend to remember the losing trades much better than the winning trades. It`s all about feelings when it comes to invest money. If you lose money you can get so nervous that it will be impossible to make good decisions again. The mere thought of losing money blocks the opportunity you have in the market.

Controlling emotions is very important when you are investing money in the market, because emotions can play havoc with your investing. That`s why you need to have a plan that makes you prepared no matter what happens in the market.

Emotional investors usually do wrong decisions and there is many of them. If you are one of them, it doesn`t mean you can be a successful investor. It simply means you have to acknowledge your concerns.

First of all you need a plan. Before you buy stocks you need to have a selling plan. You have to decide at what point you want to sell the stock. Stocks goes up and down, and you need to consider how low you think the stock might fall. Professional investors do always set a “stop loss”.

How much money can you affort to lose? 10%? 20? More? You must find your exit strategy. With a plan in your hand you can take away your emotions, and better understand when to avoid holding the stock too long or when to selling the stock to early.

You do not want to lose money. Nobody does that. If you want to buy and hold, and sit on the stock for a long time, you don`t want to exit out prematurely, but you do not want to see a great gain disappear either if a stock begins a sustained downward plunge.

The pros often use trailing stops and stop loss orders. These strategy will help you to protect your investments against losses. These strategies will not give you a guarantee to profit or protect you against an absolute losses, but it will help you to control your emotions to make betters decisions, which means better investments over time, so stick to your plan.

A Price to book ratio (P/B ratio) is used to compare a stock`s market value to its book value. It is calculated by dividing the current slosing price of the stock by the latest quarter`s book value per share, also known as the «price-equity ratio».

A stock is undervalued if the P/B is very low. But it can also be a warning that it is something wrong with the company. This ratio also gives you an idea of whether you`re paying too much for what would be left if the company is bankrupt tomorrow.

If you look at all the companies and shares in S&P 500, you will also find a P/B for that index. A very useful technique that tells you how cheap or expensive the stocks are right now. Take a look at the chart I have added today. This chart will give you a picture of the situation a the moment.

PB value

Current S&P 500 Price to Book Value: 2,53 +0,03 (1,38%)

Wed Oct 16

Mean: 2.75
Median: 2.73
Min: 1.78 (Mar 2009)
Max: 5.06 (Mar 2000)

Current price to book ratio is estimated based on current market price and S&P 500 book value as of June 2013 — the latest reported by S&P.

News for today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00am.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stock market, Stocks