Category Archives: Stock market

by | March 14, 2014 · 12:50 pm

Gold bull

A big drop for Nikkei today. Down -3,3% and 6,2% for the week. Futures contracts expires and there are some Ukraine ans slowing China growth fear. U.S indices sled yesterday too. All the European markets are also down today.

Gold

Is this the beginning of the end? Yes, but I don`t think the market will crash now. We are in a stage three-phase which have started now. We see markets are going up but at the same time we see fewer stocks participating in the bull market.

 

This is what happens in a bull market when it comes to an end. The final leg can go on for months, so it is not expected to see the bear to attack yet. This is the reason why I am not buying U.S stocks now. It`s late in the party.

 

But if I`m righ, I have recognised a new party that have just begun. It hit the bottom at the end last year, and now we see it above 250, which is a good sign. 50 MA have not crossed the 200 MA yet, so we have to be cautious.

 

What I am talking about is the gold bugs. I like what I see, but I am very sceptical at the same time, or let`s say still less bearish. I follow this market every day and I know that most of the people in this business are not so positive and that bother me a bit.

 

Reports today:

 

08:30 AM ET PPI m/m
08:30 AM ET Core PPI m/m
09:55 AM ET Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
09:55 AM ET Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 13, 2014 · 1:11 pm

Celebrating the bull Market

The Bull market is five years and four days old, since the market crash in 2008. Investors are satisfied with a gain of +175% in S&P 500 since then, but some investors are nervous. About what? Some of them know that a bull market lasts five years and three months.

shinybull_for_sitesite-7

The market will probably crash and some investors think so, but others say the bull market will continue. There are two reasons for that: First of all: there is a lot of money on the sidelines or in underperforming bond funds.

Many investors remember the bear markets in 2000 – 2002 and 2008 – 2009. They burned both times and now they will be late to the party once again. As they jump on board, stocks will continue to leap higher.

Secondly: Economic expansion is much slower this time. Usually 3% GDP growth is coming out of most of recessions. This time it goes much slower and we are about 1 – 2% GDP growth. That`s why we will see more legs for this bullish market.

Any way, this market is difficult. There are so much information out there that is too much disturbing, so it`s all about picking the right stocks now. The other thing to do is to look for the right market. I still look at emerging markets despite the fear out there.

The simple reason why I am doing that is because the stock market have gone much longer than the real economy and growth. GDP is about 1 – 2% in U.S and in China it is expected to see a GDP about 7,5%, down from 10%. But it`s still high.

Reports today:

08:30 AM ET Core Retail Sales m/m
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales m/m
08:30 AM ET Unemployment claims
08:30 AM ET Import prices m/m
10:00 AM ET Business Inventories m/m
10:00 AM ET Fed Gov Nomination Hearings
02:00 PM ET Federal Budget Balance

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 12, 2014 · 2:11 pm

China fears

Japan`s Nikkei fell -2,6% today, as investors locked in some profits as caution over Chinese demand continued to hurt commodity stocks. Nikkei ended at 14,830,39 points. It`s all down in Europe too. Gold is up +1,22%.

Gold

Shanghai copper fell by its 5% daily limit and London copper hit a 44-month low. Investors eyes are on mining stocks now because the world’s top user of copper (China) could unlock copper from financing deals and unleash more selling.

Credit Agricole said in a note that it looks bad, and that copper prices continue to be hit by China growth worries. Ukraine tensions have intensified with diplomatic efforts yielding no success and that makes investors nervous.

The U.S markets will open up in a negative territory today, putting the S&P 500 on track for a third day of declines. All this because of the China fear. Not all the investors are selling stocks. Some of them are always looking for bulls.

Take a look at Oxigene Inc (OXGN:O) today. That stock surged 145% before the opening bell, trading at $5,93. They have declared a contract with shareholders to purchase an aggregate of almost $12 million of units at a price of $2,05.

The share faced its lowest price of $2,09 during the latest trading session. The trading volume with the big jump is 8,54 million shares, compared with the average of 586,076 shares. The company`s market cap is $27,75 billion with 11,47 million shares outstanding.

Reports today:

 

10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:01 AM ET 10-y Bond Auction

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 10, 2014 · 2:17 pm

Risky business

Copper is in red territory today, town -2,03%, followed by Crude oil (brent), which is down -0,80%. Gold and silver is up. Asia is trading down today. Hang Seng is down -1,75%, Shanghai is down -2,86%, while Nikkei closed down 1% at 15,120,14.

Asian markets tumbled today. People are worried about the Ukraine crises and some are disappointed about the surprisingly weak Chinese trade data released today. All this, despite the surprisingly good news from the U.S on friday. Nonfarm payrolls was better than expected.

The commodity-sensitive Australian and Canadian dollars suffered today, as copper of which China is a major consumer, reached a four-year low in Shanghai. Australian and Canadian dollars lost half a percent against a steady U.S dollar. The Chinese yuan opened down 0,5%.

Groupon Inc (Nadaq:GRPN), is still the market leader in the daily deal voucher sales, but the stock is declining while this stocks seems to be a risky stock. Most of the Groupon`s customers are often struggling merchant partner who can`t afford to pay.

In worst case, if many of them go bankrupt, then Groupon will lose a lot of money. In addition; Groupon will pay back the customers if the merchant fails, and unused vouchers has increased to $725 million.

Merchants need to offer discounts of 50%, and share 50% of the rest with Groupon. As you know, this is a risky business. Merchants do not earn money and have no control if too many vouchers are issued.

Groupon say they are «the morst effective local advertiser tool» available for marketers, but I think that the shoppers are the winners here. Mainly because the shoppers are one-time shoppers looking for good deal, better called «coupon hunters», which is not loyal repeated customers.

This can be a ticking bomb, and the stock is now trading at $8,60. The stock will open down today -0,58%. The stock is down -67,16% from the top, and so far this year the stock is down -26,90%. Groupon shows us that not everything in the social space is rosy.

Revenue growth and user growth is the king in the stock market.

Groupon logo

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 6, 2014 · 1:52 pm

Draghi speaks

Shares rose today following gains in Asia, while the Euro held steady on speculation the European Central Bank would ease monetary policy later in the day. The economy in the Euro zone is still fragile and the ECB was expected to keep interest rates on hold.

Emerging stocks and currencies were broadly higher as diplomatic talks to moderate the crises in Ukraine were set to continue. The European leaders are having a meeting in Brussels today. They will discuss Russia and warn them but not sanction them, diplomats said.

Fears of military confrontation is reduced, and the attention now has shifted to what ECB will do now. Investors are waiting for Draghi today. ECB may hesitate to buy government bonds, unlike other major central banks like U.S Fed and BoJ.

The problem in Europe is high unemployment rate and slow growth. Will all this end up in deflation? The Euro is now traded at $1,3720 and it is expected to hear dovish talking from Draghi later today.

When the risk in Ukraine is reduced, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen. It went up half a percent at 102,7 yen. The dollar index rose, which measures the greenback against a currency basket.

Reports today:

08:15 AM ET FOMC Member Dudley speaks
08:30 Am ET ECB Press Conference
08:30 AM ET Unemployment claims
08:30 AM ET Revised Nonfarm Productivity
10:00 AM ET Factory orders m/m
01:00 PM ET FOMC Member Plosser speaks

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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