Category Archives: Commodities

by | February 4, 2014 · 2:18 pm

The new wallets

Apple:

Yes, the new wallets is here. Fact is that the new wallets have been on the market for many years now. Some people expected to see a Near Field Communication chip for mobile payments when Apple launched the new Iphone 5 a couple of year ago, but ended up disappointed.

 

Smartphones are predicted to be the new wallets and forecast for mobile payments in 2014 is $7,5B. In 2013 it was $2,1B, and $0,6B in 2012. If this is taking off we can see mobile payments of $70B in 2016. Mobile payments in China have doubled in 2013 and ended up to 218,6 Billion Yuan.

 

The most critical element in this business is the security, but Apple seems to have the right solution for all the customers waiting to pay by smartphones. Apple signed a new patent (#20140019367) on January 16.

 

What about their competitors like Visa, Mastercard, Paypal and others? They should do something before it is too late. Once Apple start with their new mobile payment solution, the card users will slowly disappear. This threath is too big to ignore I think.

 

Stocks & Commodities:

Petrobras (PBR) plummeted 5,8% yesterday and that is an eight year low level, now trading at 13.85 Brazilian reais ($5.69). This is the lowest since july 29, 2005. The overall markets plummeted yesterday, like they historically do when a new Fed chairman comes in, but Twitter went up +1,16%. What is going on here? Any report surprise?

 

Gold is not taking off despite the bearish markets we see now. Right now the gold is trading at $1.252.80, down -0,52%. Silver is also down today, trading at $19.35, down -0,30%. Copper is trading at $319.85, up today +0,47%.

 

Reports:

10:00:00 Factory Orders Forecast: -1,90% Previous: 1,80%
10:00:00 Economic Optimism Forecast: 46,1 Previous: 45,2

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 31, 2014 · 1:34 pm

Market update

Nikkei ended down to a 2 1/2 month low, while the yen rose. It`s very mixed in Asia. Some red and some green numbers, but in Europe it is different. They are all down and they are very red on emerging market worries. Gold is up +0,52%, trading at $1248,60.

This is how it will be now I think. Up and down. A volatile market. Right after the FOMC statement, we saw the market went down, but there was no panic. The volume was low and the U.S market went up yesterday. Today, It seems like the U.S market will start in a red territory.

It is the last day of January today, and it is headed for the worst january in Europe since 2010. What I will focus more about now is inflation, stagflation and deflation. Printing a lot of money should lead to growth and inflation.

But so far, we see a slow growth, low inflation and worries about deflation. There are two camps out there. One that expect inflation (some predict hyperinflation) and one camp that expect deflation. Who are you gonna listen to?

shinybull_for_sitesite-7

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

 

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by | January 30, 2014 · 1:38 pm

Facebook up 12,4%

So far this year, Facebook is down -2,0%. Yesterday, Mark Zuckerberg launched the new report FQ4earnings, and after that, the stock jumped 12,4% in after hours trading. That is pretty good for a stock that everybody predict will die like a virus and lose about 80% of its users by 2017.

Researchers at University College London stated that Facebook is «dead and buried». The teenagers has escaped and Facebook is not cool anymore. The fact is that Facebook has grown its EPS and revenue last eight quarters, and they have 847 million active users.

Facebooks fourth-quarter revenue topped analysts estimates. Revenue rose 63% to $2,59B. Mobile promotions generated $1,25B and accounted for 53% of advertising revenue. Previous quarter was $49%. Mobile is the key for Facebook, so I think it`s going to be a great battle between Facebook and their competitor Twitter in the future.

Net income rose to $523million, or 20 cents a share. That`s up 17 cents a share from a year ago. As an educated marketer, I will follow both Facebook and Twitter for their battle on the digital-ad market. Twitter will release their first earnings as a public company feb 5. We look forward to that.

It is expected that Facebooks market share will rise to 9% by 2015, while Twitter will grab a 2% share. Facebooks average price of ads is up 92% from a year ago. It will be more quality ads instead of quantity ads. Next week they will celebrate 10 year. Happy birthday.

If the teens have gone from Facebook, where are they? They are on Instagram, and the number of people on that platform is truly remarkable, but right now they don`t have any data for this teen engagement. Facebook is the owner of Instagram.

Last year Facebook offered $3 billion to acquire Snapchat Inc. This platform is also very popular to teenagers. It`s understandable that the younger teens aren`t using Facebook`s website anymore. They have so much other alternatives.

Facebook is not only Facebook. It`s Instagram too. Instagram is growing and has doubled its user base. This mobile photo-sharing service company have 180M MAUs, and that`s pretty good compared to last years 90M MAUs.

Mark Zuckerberg says Facebook is planning to launch several new apps in 2014. They will develop more standalone mobile apps with great new experiences that separates from what you think of as Facebook today.

Facebook Messenger had a 70% growth in the last 90 days. North America still accounted for 47% of the revenue in Q4. Last month, they sold $3,85 billion of shares in a secondary offering. That is Facebook`s first share sale since going public. The stock more than doubled last year.

Holidays starts tomorrow to mark a change in the Chinese zodiac calendar from the snake to the year of the horse. On a day like this, many Chinese people buy gold as a gift and the demand is rising. As you know, the Chinese economy is growing fast, and so are the demand for jewelry, bars and coins. It rose 30% last year, and that is the highest of any nation, World Gold Council data show. Net imports of bullion from Hong Kong more than doubled last year.

Reports today: Advance GDP q/q at 8:30am, Unemployment claims at 8:30 and Pending home sales at 10:00am.

F vs T

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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by | January 29, 2014 · 2:00 pm

FOMC statement at 2:00pm

Today I will sit in front of my laptop (not TV), and watch

FOMC statement at 2:00pm.

Capitol hill

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

 

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by | January 28, 2014 · 2:14 pm

BIG Apple

The stock markets are sliding down but this is not the end of the world. There ain`t no doubt; the bear is here! Yesterday Nasdaq tumbled -1,08%, while Apple plummeted -7,7% in after hour trading. Dow slid -0,3%.

This is how it probably will be in the stock market now. Up and down, or what we call a volatile market. That`s why it is so important to know about stock picking. How to pick the right stocks, and that`s why I wrote about it last week.

In my opinion; U.S stocks is not cheap, so it is important to know what to do before any decision is made. The European stocks is twice as cheap as the U.S stocks. How is it going with Apple?

Apple reports yesterday:

iphone sales is $32,5B (+6% vs 17% in FQ4).

ipad sales is $11,5B (+7% vs -13%).

Mac sales is $6,4B (+16% vs -15%).

iTunes/software/services revenue is 4,4B (+19%).

iPod sales is only $973M (-55%).

78% of Apple`s cash/investment balance ($159B) is offshore. The iPhone sales is up +40% in Japan. Sales in China is up 20%. Europe is flat, while Americas sales is only +1%. Tim Cook didn`t say much about buybacks in face of Carl Icahn`s ongoing campaign. $7,8B was returned via dividends/buybacks. Apple need to release something new now, and I am not talking about a bigger screen or a different color. I am talking about innovation. Come On Apple: “think different”.

Revenue: $57,59B

FQ1 EPS: $14,50

Expects FQ2 revenue of $42 – $44B.

How is the inflation? It is rising, but it is difficult to see it. Some people expect inflation and some expect deflation. Both camps see increase in general prices like visible money and credit prices. Hyperinflation is expected, but deflation is probably the biggest problem in the future in the long run. I think Janet Yellen will push the QE-button if the deflation ghost is here. As you can see; despite the QE programs, the growth is so far very slow.

If the Fed starts its tapering, how will that affects the emerging markets? Half of the global GDP comes from the emerging markets, and that moves the other markets in the rest of the world.

It seems like money is on the way back to emerging markets as the Fed announces their tapering. Let`s wait for the FOMC statements later on this week.

Reports today: Core DurableGoods at 8:30am, S&P/CS Composite at 9:00am, CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00am.

Apple

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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