Category Archives: Commodities

by | February 18, 2014 · 2:18 pm

Earnings reports

Nikkei rose 3,13% today. What a jump! This jump is based on good news for Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ kept monetary policy steady and maintained its upbeat assessment on the economy. It also decided to extend three special loan facilities.

It is mixed in Europe and it seems like the U.S markets will open up today. Gold is trading down -0,34% at $1314,50. Silver is down -0,03%, trading at $21,41. Copper is up +0,32%, trading at 327,50.

Earnings reports to follow today: Coca cola (KO) is reporting for the quarter ending December 31, 2013. Consensus earnings per share is $0,46. This is a 2,22% increase compared to the earnings for the same quarter last year.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) is reporting for the quarter ending December 31, 2013. The companies consensus earnings per share forecast is $0,17. This is a 1600% increase compared to the same period last year. Price to earnings for NCLH is 26,90, while the industry ratio is 22,10, which means NCLH have a higher earnings growth than their competitors.

I look forward to the earnings report from Tesla (TSLA) tomorrow. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending December 2013. Consensus Eearnings per share forecast for the quarter is $0,04. EPS for the same periode last year was $-0,78. A great jump!

tesla

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | February 12, 2014 · 2:07 pm

The other currency

The U.S stocks surged yesterday as the Fed and Janet Yellen said they would continue the central bank’s policy of providing monetary stimulus to bolster the economy. This is music in the investors ears!

 

«What would cause the committee to consider a pause in tapering is a notable change in the outlook,» Janet Yellen said. Republicans don`t want to fight anymore, so he house voted to raise the government`s borrowing l limit. This will continue until March 2015.

 

Asian and European stocks is up today, as the investors cheered Janet Yellens stance. Gold is down today. USD have always had an interesting relationship with Gold. When gold is rising the dollar has declined in the long term, but that is not true, in the short term, so the relationship can be tenuous at best. Take a look at the charts, and you can see for yourself. You can see a strong negative correlation to a strong positive correlation and back again.

 

This relationship can be linked to the Bretton Woods System. International settlements were made in U.S dollars and the U.S goverment promised to redeem dollars at a fixed gold rate. Bretton Woods Systems was dissolved in 1971. When gold is discussed, talk of the U.S dollar usually ensues.

 

Gold and U.S dollars can be seen as a trading pair like EUR/USD or other currency pairs, but it is important to remember that gold and currencies are dynamic and have more than one simple input.

 

Gold is impacted by far more than just U.S dollar, inflation or war. Gold can be traded all around the world as a global commodity and it reflects global sentiment. Not only a sentiment of one economy or group of people.

 

It seems like a new bullish trend have started, but be careful and take a look at the gold, equity markets and the U.S dollars during the 2008 financial crises. Gold plummeted like the stock market, and the U.S dollar skyrocketed. This is just a reminder.

Gold

 

Reports today:

 

10:30:00am EUR ECB Precident Drahi speeks        
10:30:00am USD Crude oil inventories        
01:01:00pm USD 10-y bond Auction        
02:00:00pm USD Federal budget Balance        

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | February 11, 2014 · 1:36 pm

Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies

An uneventful trading session yesterday made it a quiet session. The U.S indices finished up a few points. Dow +0,05%, S&P 500 +0,16% and Nasdaq +0,54%. Gold is running fast now. Trading at 1285,01. It seems like the market will open up today, but the rest of the day will be interesting.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is testifying before the House Financial Service Committee. The testimony comes in two parts: first part is a prepared statement that is releases before the testimony. The second part is a Q&A part.

As a Fed chairman/woman you need to be careful for what you say. Wrong word can be a disaster in the stock markets and vica verse. Therefore; the second part in the testimony can be a very interesting moment for the traders.

Gold rose today on expectations that the Fed Chair Janet Yellen will stay the course in winding down bullion-frendly monetary stimulus. What will Janet Yellen say today? The financial markets are hoping for reassurance that the Federal Reserves bond purchases will continue for a long time to come. Gold also rise up on worries over debt-ceiling talk. Silver is trading at $20,04.

Janet Yellen has served the Fed in different roles over the past 36 years. In this testimony she has a unique chance to reintroduce her self to the rest of the world. She need to be able to answer questions about the unemployment rate. What is the bottom line? What is the expectations about the growth? How fast and how long will it take to grow in the long run? Wages growth or inflation?

Reports today: Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies at 10:00am.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 10, 2014 · 2:24 pm

Gold is up

Gold continue to go up, now trading at 1271,50. Nikkei rose +1,77%. Up 255,93 points. The European markets is mixed today, but are not moving much. The U.S markets ended the week in green on friday. Dow +1,06%, S&P 500 +1,33% and Nasdaq +1,69%. Nokia is up 9,27%. Very good!

I will look for earnings reports from Tata Motors (TTM) today. Forecast EPS is $0,87 ($0,47 last year). The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Dec 2013. Many other earnings reports is coming out later this week.

Alibaba is trying to take full control over AutoNavi Holdings (AMAP). The stock is trading at $16,54. Up +7,26%. AutoNavi holdings is up 27,87% AH. EPS growth: -128%. Revenue growth: -6,02%. (Last Qtr).

Take a look a the gold this week. It`s still moving up. Sometimes it goes in the opposite direction of the equity market, and sometimes not. They can follow each other, so don`t forget to set «stop loss» if you are daytrading.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 5, 2014 · 2:15 pm

Is this a rebound?

The Dow ended the Tuesday up 0,47%, and the S&P 500 added 0,76%. The key now is the U.S data, and any missing of data will change the game. The bounce in Nikkei led the investors to bid up the safe-heaven yen, with the dollar dipping to 101,36 yen from an early top of 101,77.

Nikkei rose 1,2% today, and it was far away from testing the 200 MA. The index has shed 14% so far in 2014 and rose 50% in 2013. In Japan they are concerned about the Fed tapering and I assume that Japan knows everything about QE.

Europe is up followed by good news from Euro zone Composite PMI, which measure business activity across thousands of companies and tells investors about the economic health. It climbed to 52,9 in January (previous: 52,1). That was the highest reading since June 2011. Great! These numbers tell us the recovery of the 18-member block is broad-based.

Good economic data helped the Euro zone to break a three-day run of losses on Wednesday. It helped the investors nerves, before the ECB`s monthly meeting on thursday.

Federal Reserve is lowering the stimulus that helped the equity`s to gain 123% the last four years. S&P 500 rose 173% from the bottom in 2009. That is a bull market that is a year older than the average since World War II.

Economists are more bullish now than 2011 when the S&P 500 was on the brink of a bear market. IMF raised its global growth projection to 3,7%. That`s up from October estimate of 3,6%.

Reports today:

08:15:00 ADP Non-Farm Employment change Forecast: 191K Previous: 238K
10:00:00 ISM Non-manufactoring PMI Forecast: 53,6 Previous: 53

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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