Author Archives: Ket Garden

by | October 28, 2013 · 1:38 pm

All time high

Nikkei bounced back on monday and advanced 2,2% after the downturn on friday. Topix rose 1,7% in a light trade with 2,32 billion shares changing hands. The European stocks rose to it`s five year highs today while the dollar is still under pressure. Gold is trading at $1,353,10 an ounce.

The S&P500 is up over 23% YTD. It`s time for Halloween this week, but all the ATH (all time high) are making many people scared, but that is not because of the Halloween. It is simply because the market is overbought.

Take a look at the S&P500 shart below. How many ATH can you count in that chart? You see? The world is going up and forward. Will this megatrend stop? If USA is like Japan twenty years ago, it will stop. They did never come back to it`s top. Take a look at the chart.

SP500_1955

The next months are the favorite months for many investors. If you look back over the past 60 years, the Wall Street results have been dominated by this very productive season.

You have probably heard the word October effec, the year-end effect or the January effect. Historically, November has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P500 and the third best for the Dow since 1950. It has also been the start of the most bullish months of the year, which extend to April.

You have also heard the word: “Sell in may and go away.” But sometimes it isn`t like that. Sometimes we see things are not going the way it should. You can rely on this as the forth and crucial element of the Quadruple Witching Season. Like the one that is sitting on top of other catalysts like the tide lifting all boats, but don`t forget stop loss, simply because what goes up, must come down.

50% of the companies on S&P500 have reportet their Q3 results and some of them have exceeded the investors expectations which made the rally we have seen so far in October. Today it is headed for Apple, and wednesday it is time for Facebook earnings. I look forward to both of them.

Pending Home Sales at 10:00am. (Forecast: 0,5%. Previous: -1,6%).

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 25, 2013 · 2:06 pm

Earnings

Japan`s Nikkei tumbled -2,75% today. Nikkei suffered the biggest one day loss since august, hit by yen`s strength against the dollar. Investors tend to fear that tight credit conditions in China will put the brakes on the world`s second largest economy. The rest of the Asian markets are also a little bit down. The european market is also a little bit down. Seems like the strong Euro hurts the earnings. Gold is up 1,2% to $1.346,60.

You have probably seen the father and son drama over Netflix stake? Billionaire investor Carl Icahn mean he did the right thing when he sold his Netflix stake, possibly worth hundreds of millions of dollars. But his son Brett, disagree. Icahn acquired Netflix shares for an average price of $58. Netflix shares are now trading at $331,22.

Carl Icahn cut his 9,4% stake by more than half to 4,5%. As I was writing about yesterday about risk/reward and how to buy stocks earlier, Icahn have, for all I know already decided when to go out and sell.

It will be interesting to see who of them, father or son, who was right. Anyway, It`s never wrong to take some profit. If the stock plummet, Carl Icahn can buy more. If the stock continue to go up, he still have 50% of the stocks in Netflix in his portfolio.

Earning came in yesterday. Here is some of them:

Microsoft (MSFT) beats estimates and shares rise +5,8% AH. EPS of $0,62 beats by $0,08. Revenue of $18,53B (+16% Y/Y) beats by $740M.

Zynga (ZNGA) beats Q3 estimates and shares soar. Up +11,3% AH. Q3 EPS of -$0,02 beats by $0,02. Bookings of $152,1M (-40% Y/Y) beats by $8,4M.

Samsung investing in Corning (GLW) +20,7% AH. Full Q3 results arrive on Oct. 30. GLW is taking full control of the Samsung Corning LCD glass JV. 43%-owned by Samsung Display. The Company says it expects to report Q3 revenue of $2,1B (+10% Y/Y) and EPS of $0,33.

money2

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 24, 2013 · 1:54 pm

Risk and reward

The U.S market fell yesterday and it was all red. Today the Asian market i up. Nikkei is up from a two week low. Gold is trading at $1334,50. Netflix is down -15% from it`s all time high. Are you willing to buy stocks in Netflix now? Or blue chips? What about risky small-cap stocks? Bonds?

Investing carries a certain amount of risk, but how much risk are you willing to take? What are you willing to pay for a stock? How much can you afford to lose? You have to look for risk and reward.

When you invest, you can get some pain, but you can also get some gain. That`s why you have to weigh the reward against the risk when you are investing. Understanding risk and reward is the key in investing in stocks and other financial papers.

You have all heard the words: “the higher the risk, the higher the potential return”. It`s very important to understand you own comfort level when you are investing. Then you will clearly understand the relationship between risk and reward.

Bank certificates of deposit (CDs) with a fedrally insured bank are also very secure. But the price for this safety is a very very low return on you investment. You can end up earning nothing when you calculate taxes on your gain and inflation.

To invest you need to think about the amount you are willing to put into the market. Before you invest, you must decide when you are willing to sell. How much rate of return or growth do you accept? And don`t forget fees, inflation and tax and the value of the dollar.

All those thing goes in different directions. That`s why many investors like to put different eggs in different baskets. Investors are diversifying their portfolios, and invest in different papers with various degree of risk. The goal is to take profit from a rising market, and to protect themself against dramatic losses in a down market.

New today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9:00am, New Home Sales at 10:00am.

risky.behavior

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 23, 2013 · 12:27 pm

Alan Greenspan talks

Asian markets are down today. Hang Seng is down -1,36%. Nikkei -1,95%. KOSPI -0,99%. Shanghai -1,25%. All the European markets are down today. Everyone is red. Markets are falling, and Yen strengthened against the dollar following a bad miss for U.S employment data yesterday. It drops on concerns about central-bank tightening and debt write-offs at banks.

ECB plans to stress test 128 top eurozone banks over the next year and ECB intends to complete the testes by October 2014. ECB plans to stress test 128 top eurozone banks over the next year and ECB intends to complete the testes by October 2014. It aims to build confidence in the financial sector by improving transparency and implementing “corrective action” where needed.

Mr. Alan Greenspan is out with a new book, worries about the U.S economy. In his latest book, “The Map and the Territory,” he is talking about a warning to the FED balance expansion that may unleash inflation. We can see a price acceleration with today`s FED`s balances unchanged, ranging from 3% per unnum to double digits over the next five to six years, he writes.

Nobody have talked about a higher inflation, but instead the inflation has been on a record low level. That`s why Mr. Alan Greenspan is worried. The FED can prevent this threat by selling the bonds, and take the money back and out of the economy.

But; the FED are confident in plan 2: The FED pays interest on the money that the banks hold on deposit, and when the economy is getting better, the FED can increase the interest rate to induce the banks to hold the money on deposit. That can eliminate the inflationary pressure.

If the economy unexpectedly moves to go wild on a high gear, any credit tightening will run into political opposition. We have seen that before. It is also possible that the inflationary pressures won`t build until the economy has gone into a higher gear. It is possible for the FED to stay against inflationary and political pressures at the same time if the FED do their job right. News today: Import Prices at 8:30am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am.

Alan Greenspan

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 22, 2013 · 12:19 pm

The biggest gainer in S&P 500 in 2013!

Netflix exceeded most of the expectations yesterday with their business model for streaming tv and film service. In the third quarter, they added 1,3 million streaming subscribers in the U.S and that is the highest ever.

It`s funny to think about. Ten years ago, Netflix delivered the films only through DVD`s mailed to the customers, which made them the highest-performing stock on Nasdaq. Now the business model is totally different and more profitable.

Netflix is big in the U.S, but are growing outside of the country. They have a new agreement with Virgin and so far they have added 1,4 million subscribers for a total of 9,2 million. Investors are impressed and sent the stock up to $390 in after-hours trading. That`s 10%.

History tells us that this can be a very volatile stock. In 2003 Netflix was the highest performing stock on Nasdaq. They had solid results compounded by momentum. Now, they say it feels like 2003 euforia.

Despite the huge swings in the stock price since 2002 IPO ($8 down to $3 to $39 to $300 to $55 to $330) they continued to grow the membership every year fairly steadily. What they have made over the last 10 years is stunning. Netflix say they want to make the next 10 years remarkable. Earnings-per-share is 52 cents and the net income for the quarter reached $32 million and that is up from $8 million in 2012.

Investors paid close attentions to the number of subscribers because they have predicted that they could have 60 million to 90 million members in the U.S, and even more overseas. Yesterday, Mr. Reed Hastings (CEO), who frequently singles out HBO as the main competitor, hinted at a specific number it`s aiming for.

They have a long way to go to match HBO`s 114 million global member count. Mr. Hastings also talked about Netflix`s tv show like «House of Cards,» and the new and bigger hit «Orange is the New Black.» Mr. Reed Hasings (CEO) says that «Orange» will end the year as Netflix`s most-watched original series ever. The typical Netflix subscriber still spends a lot of time streaming repeats of TV shows.

More than 25% of the companies on S&P 500 are comming with their earnings report this week. Yesterday, I was looking for the earning from Netflix. The stock have soared this year and few investors expect the stock to pull back following its results on monday.

People want to see films. Watch movies and TV shows. They don`t want to spend money on burgers. McDonald’s fell 0,8% to $94,42. They warned global October sales could be flat. Apple rose 2,5% to a shareprice of $521,83 and was the largest winner on Nasdaq.

Guidance for Apple numbers from September 23 told us that it is sold over nine million iPhone 5cs and 5s`s in their first three days (SEC 8-K filing). Apple`s guidance results in EPS is between $7,23 and $8,09 for september quarter.

It is expected to see a revenue of $37,5 billions. Up 4,3%, which is above the guidence of $37 billion. Iphone should be over 50% of revenue and 65% of profits. I think the future is in the hi tech now. The tablet sale is just in the beginning of a new era. I look forward to Apple`s earnings report.

News today: Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate at 8:30am.

Reed Hastings

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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