Author Archives: Ket Garden

by | November 25, 2013 · 2:06 pm

Consumer Confidence is declining

It is thanksgiving week and this week is usually a low volume week. Traders are off enjoying the extended holiday, and if something moves, it will move monday and Tuesday. Since we are at the all time high, maybe some people are thinking profit taking?

Consumer confidence is declining. This gives us an idea about the consumer spending in the U.S economy. If people don`t feel great about their own economy, they will not spend so much money. It is just that simple.

I wrote about Apple and their new products and they really need to do it well in Q4. If people don`t have money to spend, they will not buy any Apple products like phones, tablets or other innovative products. They will rather keep what they have and cut back on their discretionary spending.

If people don`t spend money this holiday season, companies will not earn so much money and the stock prices will not go up. Nor the GDP (gross domestic product) will go up.

What really drives the U.S economy are suggesting there isn`t much light at the end of the tunnel. What about the so-called economic recovery we have seen since the financial crises? Does it work?

Gold is trading at $1231,50. Down -1,01%. As long as the inflation is low, the gold will continue to decline. People expect hyper inflation, but Janet Yellen are fighting against deflation. News today: Pending Home Sales at 10:00am.

 um-consumer-sentiment-through-november-2013

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 22, 2013 · 2:25 pm

Price to sales ratio (P/S)

When you evaluate companies, you have many tools to use. You can do the research by looking at the numbers in companies that have made money in the past. The tools I have been written about earlier is very useful.

But what if a company don`t have any earnings? Is it a bad investment? Not necessarily, but you should be very careful with companies with no income history.

The tech bubble is a good example. Many companies didn`t have earnings history and some of them didn`t have products either. That was the 90`s. Fortunately. However, sometimes you find a great company that is worthy of consideration. Therefore, you need to measure the young companies without the earnings.

You can calculate like this:

P/S = Market Cap / Revenues
or
P/S = Stock Price / Sales Price Per Share

Price to Sales (P/S) ratio is a tool you can use and the lower the P/S the better the investment is because you are paying less for each unit of sales. However, sales do not reflect the whole picture as the company may be unprofitabel with a low P/S ratio. This ratio is usually used only for unprofitable companies. That is because they don`t have a price-earnings ratio (P/E).

Like the other tools I have been writing about, you shouldn`t use only one of them to determine your investments. Especially, when you are dealing with young companies, you will have a lot of questions to answer and the P/S ratio is only one of them. Remember; Microsoft was without earnings at the beginning of their carreer.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 21, 2013 · 2:08 pm

To taper or not to taper

The FED`s FOMC minutes, said yesterday that they could see the Fed tapering its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program at one of the next few meetings the coming months. In addition, the committee members also saw the U.S. economy growing at a moderate pace.

This is not something new to us. They have earlier said that they want to see the unemployment rate below 6,5% and a better growth with a stabile inflation before they start to taper. Therefore, the U.S employment report in early December will be on traders and investors watch list now.

Once they came out with the news yesterday, the dollar index shot to its daily high, which is a bearish signal for the precious metals traders. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply. Where are the gold headed now?

From 1976 into the peak in 1980, gold rallied from $101,50 to $873 an ounce. A big bullish trend for the gold that time. Fear and greed are reflecting this chart, while people trade on emotions.

The gold indes peaked out and the market backed off and settled into a sideway trend from about 1982 to 1996. Then it started a sideways trend from around $281 to $514. A loooooong sideways trend for a loooong periode of time.

It went sideways in the 90`s and people considered the market to be «dead». But then the market changed in 2001 – 2002. It started a new trend that peaked out in September 2011, trading at $1900.

The chart is now very similar to the chart back in the early 80`s. If this is the future for gold, we are likely to see a sideways trend now.

But many people expect a big drop now because the market seems to be overbought. If that happend, we will se a change for the gold price. Probably a big jump. News today: PPI & Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 20, 2013 · 1:35 pm

Price-to-earnings growth (PEG)

PEG ratio is used to determine the value of the stock while you look at the company’s earnings growth. This gives you a better picture and overview than P/E ratio. Take a look at LinkedIn. Price-to-earnings is just below 1000 now.

A high P/E like that may look like a good buy, but factoring in the company`s growth rate to get the stock`s PEG may tell you another story. A company with a lower PEG ratio may be undervalued given its earnings performance.

The PEG ratio tells you whether the stock is over or underpriced and that varies by industry and what kind of business it is. The accuracy of the numbers in the PEG depends on all the inputs used. If you use historical growth rates, you may provide an inaccurate PEG ratio because the future growth can deviate from historical growth rates. Some use the terms “forward PEG” and some use the terms “trailing PEG” to distinguish between the calculation methods using future growth and historical growth.

The most popular way to compare two different stocks are to look at the P/E. You simply calculate it by taking the current price of the stock and divide it by the EPS. It tells you whether the stock is high or low relative to its earnings.

A stock with a high P/E is often considered as overpriced and that is probably right. It signals that the traders have pushed the stock price too high and above any reasonable near term growth that is probable.

However, a high P/E can also signal a strong vote of confidence that the company still has strong growth prospects in the future. This tells us that the stock price can go even higher.

Investors are usually more concerned about the future than the present. That`s why it is better to look at future earnings growth or the PEG ratio. You calculate the PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the projected growth in earnings.

PEG = P/E ratio / (projected growth in earnings)

For example:

P/E in Company A is 100, and projected earnings growth next year is 20%. PEG in this case is 5 (100 / 20 = 5). Like all other ratios, the number five in this case is just a number you can compare in relationship to others. The lower the number, the less you pay for each unit of future earnings growth. A company with a high P/E and a high projected earnings growth may be a good value.

A company that is not growing any more with a P/E of 10, and a low or no projected earnings growth, gives you a PEG like the P/E. This can tell you that the investment in here is very expensive.

Take a look at the chart below. I have compared Sony with Starbucks. People are not buying vinyl records or cd`s anymore. What do they buy? They simply buy coffee! Sony traded at $120 in year 2000, and now the stock is just below $20. By the way, do you know what company that is selling most cd`s in this world right now? Belive it or not; it is Starbucks!

SNE and SBUX

News today:

Core CPI & Retail Sales at 8:30am,

Existing Home Sales & Business Inventories at 10:00am,

Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am,

Fed Meeting Minutes at 2:00pm.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 19, 2013 · 12:23 pm

Earnings per share (EPS) 2

EPS is considered to be the single most important variable in determining a companies share price.

Definition:

The portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. Earnings per share serves as an indicator of a company’s profitability.

The most important thing in finance is “time”. When are the transactions going to be paid? That`s because the world it changing, so are the currency and the value of the money.

So, it is very important to compare apples to apples. Otherwise, it will be difficult to make an investment decision. It`s meaningless to compare the price of two different stocks.

It doesn`t make sense to compare the earnings of two different companies either. Why? Because, like I said in my article: “Earnings per share 1”, all the companies have different number of outstanding shares. This is important to know.

Let`s say Company Company A and B both earn $1000, but Company A have 10 shares outstanding and Company B have 100 shares outstanding. See? What company do you want own?

It`s better to compare two different companies by looking at the earnings per share (EPS). A simple tool to use. You calculate earnings per share by taking the net earnings and divide it by outstanding shares.

EPS = Net Earnings / Outstanding shares

In our example, Company A had earnings of $1000 and 10 shares outstanding. EPS for Company A is 100. (1000/10=100).

Company B also had earnings of $1000 but 100 shares outstanding. EPS for Company B is 10. (1000/100=10).

Wow! Buy shares in Company A you say. Maybe, but it is not enough to make that decision only on the basis of its EPS. It`s helpful to compare two companies, assuming they are in the same business, but it doesn`t tell you whether it`s a great stock or not. It doesn`t tell you what the market think of the stock either. We need to look at some ratios.

Keep in mind that there are three types of EPS:

Trailing EPS – last year’s numbers (the only actual EPS)

Current EPS – this year’s numbers (still projections)

Forward EPS – future numbers (obviously projections)

I have tried to make this as easy as possible, but if you want, we can make it more difficult. We need to remember diluted shares, dividende, warrants and so on. I am not gonna write about that today, so hang on, we will discuss that later. I just don`t want to complicate it now.

News today: FED Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks today at 7:00pm.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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