Author Archives: Ket Garden

Political turmoil in South Africa are downgrading their economy to Junk status

The rand is declining and people in South Africa want President Jacob Zuma to resign. South Africa are in its worst political crisis in a decade, and the economy is growing at the slowest pace since the 2009 recession.

Africa`s former President Kgalema Motlanthe also wants President Jacob Zuma to resign, joining calls by the African National Congress’ (ANC) ally in government the South African Communist Party.

ANC came to power under Nelson Mandela.

 

 

Yesterday, SP Global Ratings downgraded South Africa`s sovereign credit rating to BB+ grade, saying that the recent firing of the internationally respected finance minister posed a risk fiscal policy.

S&P downgraded South Africa to junk. Another rating agency, Moody`s, which has South Africa two notches above «junk» status, are planning to deliver a review on Friday. Fitch is in the middle with only one, which means three different views.

The agency said the outlook is very «negative» claiming it is a political risk that will remain elevated for the rest of this year. We also might see political shifts that would undermine fiscal and economic growth outcomes more than the agency projects.

The rand plummeted right after President Jacob Zuma fired his well-respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan last week during an overnight Cabinet shuffle. The rand plummeted about 5 percent in the aftermath.

President Jacob Zuma has survived several no-confidence votes in recent years, and some analysts say they belive the no-confidence vote is unlikely to pass.

It`s a 400-member parliament in Africa, and the ANC commands a strong majority in the parliament with 249 seats. The opposition must have at least 50 votes in favor by ANC politicians for a no-confidence vote to pass.

Investors want a bigger premium over Treasuries to hold South African dollar-denominated debt than Russia or Brazil. Both are junk credits.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Going in Style is a new comedy about three friends who take revenge on the company that has frozen their pensions

Going in Style is a new comedy about three friends who take revenge on the company that has frozen their pensions by stealing their own money back. The 79-year-old actor Morgan Freeman is in the spotlight with Michael Caine and Alan Arkin.

The comedy film is a remake of the 1979 film of the same name, which is a couple of years before former President Ronald Reagan took place at the White House. A time were the Debt to GDP skyrocketed, which it did under all his years as a President.

 

 

When the company they worked for is bought out, their pensions become a casualty of the restructuring. Inspired by a bank robbery one of the witnesses, three seniors decide to take back what is rightfully owed them from the bank holding the company`s pension funds.

The film follows a trio of retirees who plan to rob a bank after their pensions are canceled. Going in Style premiered at the SVA Theatre on March 30, 2017 and is scheduled to be released in the United States on April 7, 2017.

 

 

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Greek`s productivity was higher than China`s

Greece is considered the cradle of Western civilization, being the birthplace of democracy, Western philosophy, the Olympic Games and mathematical principles to name a few. They were annexed by Rome in the second century BC, becoming an integral part of the Roman Empire and its successor, the Byzantine Empire.

The Greek Orthodox Church also shaped modern Greek identity and transmitted Greek traditions to the wider Orthodox World. Falling under Ottoman dominion in the mid-15th century, the modern nation-state of Greece emerged in 1830 following a war of independence.

 

 

Most of mainland Greece and the Aegean islands was under Ottoman control by the end of the 15th century. The only part of the Greek-speaking world that escaped long-term Ottoman rule was the Ionian islands, which Venetian until their capture by the First French Republic in 1797, then passed to the United Kingdom in 1809 until their unification with Greece in 1864.

While some Greeks in the Ionian islands and Constantinople lived in prosperity, and Greeks of Constantinople achieved positions of power within the Ottoman administration, much of the population of mainland Greece suffered the economic consequences of the Ottoman conquest.

Heavy taxes were enforced, and in later years the Ottoman Empire enacted a policy of creation of hereditary estates, effectively turning the rural Greek population into serfs (status of many peasants under feudalism).

The decline of serfdom in Western Europe has sometimes been attributed to the Black death, which reached Europe in 1347. Tibet is described by Melvyn Goldstein to have had serfdom until 1959, and the United Nations 1956 supplementary Convention on the Abolition of Slavery also prohibits serfdom as a form of slavery.

The Nazis destroyed Greece during the World War II. There were 80 000 jews in Greece at that time and nearly everyone was killed. Now it is about 5 000 left. The Nazis burned Greeks houses and about 1 000 000 were homeless. The U.S Marshall plan gave Greece a boost after WWII and the economy started to grow again.

Its strange because most Western philosophical traditions began in Ancient Greece in the 6th century BC. So, how could the Greeks democracy fail, and why are they in trouble right now?

Their productivity was sky-high only a few years ago. In 2003, the GDP was higher than China`s GDP right now. Greece GDP in 2003 was at an all-time high of 6,80 which is impressive. Now, the picture is very different. GDP is down -1,1 percent.

Greece is the anti-austerity country with a lot of problems after six years of deep recession. Household consumption is the main component of GDP and accounts for 72 percent of its total use. Exports of goods and services account for 33 percent, while imports account for 35 percent.

Many of the Greek citizens claim that they got problems after joining the European Union in 2001. In 2007, right before the financial crisis, GDP per capita reached an all-time high of 30056,68, but now it has declined to 22573,42 US dollars.

The Anti-Austerity country is also seeing their own wages falling. Wages in Greece decreased to 1092,01 EUR per month in April last year. The good news is that the Unemployment rate is down to 23,1 in December last year, which is much better than their all-time high of 27,90 in July of 2013.

Data shows growth for the year proves the economy is performing better than expected and that no more austerity measures are needed. A Greek spokesman said the government won`t pass one more euro of extra austerity measure.

The European Commission expect the Greek economy to expand 2,7 percent this year and 3,1 percent in 2018. Uncertainty over completion of the current bailout review poses a downside risk to those forecasts, the Commission said.

In a big picture, what we face in Greece now is just a part of an evolution.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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The FED`s “Adverse Scenario” and the major shift in the economy

The stock market has been in a euphoric rally since Donald Trump won the election in November last year. This is something that Janet Yellen and the FED has monitored. Not only that. They also monitored strong economic data which have strengthened the case for a rate hike.

As you may know, the FED raised the rates a few days ago, and normally after a rate hike, the stock market drops. Thats the case right now, but the market didnt fall much. Janet Yellen said the FED will continue to raise the rates. What will happen then?

The FED came out with Scenarios for annual stress test required under the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing Rules and the Capital Plan Rule on February 10, 2017. It is just a forecast; an Armageddon forecast, which is called «Adverse Scenario» Report, and the scenarios are not forecasts of the FED.

The adverse and severely adverse scenarios describe hypothetical sets of conditions designed to assess the strength of banking organizations and their resilience to adverse economic environments. The baseline scenario follows a profile similar to the average projections from a survey of economic forecasters.

We must be prepared for higher long-term interest rates. What is that suppose to mean? First of all; that is good for banks with retail customers, simply because retail customers usually have checking accounts with zero interest on them.

So, if the rates rise, the spread in the banks rise simply because the banks will make more on their lending. About 2,000 banks has disappeared the last seven years, which means the competition among the rest is not that big anymore.

We can also see a steeper yield curve and regionally concentrated episodes of deflation. More pronounced in Japan, but less severe in the Euro zone and Asia and absent in the UK and US.

This is the major shifts we will see in the FED`s «Adverse Scenario» for 2017, and U.S banks will be stress-tested again. The apocalyptic scenario means that the level of U.S real GDP will decline in the first quarter of this year.

The US economy advanced an annualized 1,9 percent on quarter in the three months of 2016, slowing from a 3,5 percent growth in the previous period and matching earlier estimates. Consumer spending rose faster than anticipated while business investment was revised lower. Last year, the GDP expanded 1,6 percent, which is the lowest since 2011.

Check out next GDP number at 2017-03-30 at 12:30 PM.

In the scenario, the unemployment rate increases to 10 percent, by the third quarter of 2018, and short-term treasury rates fall and remain near zero. House prices will also decline by about 25 – 35 percent, through the first quarter of 2019, and so will equity prices.

In the same scenario, we will se a slowdown in Asia, severe recessions and the dollar will appreciate against euro, the pound sterling and the currencies of developing Asia.

I think the next big think to look at now is the election in France. If Le Pen and the populist wins, it can turn things upside down, and start a new international crisis. Until then, trade in small caps are profitable when rates rise, and higher rates doesn`t stop tech stocks like Alphabet, Apple and Amazon from surging. This is the bull market that everyone hates.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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LIVE STREAM: President Donald Trump Holds a National Economic Council Meeting

LIVE STREAM: President Donald Trump Holds a National Economic Council Meeting 3/24/17 LIVE SPEECH

President Donald Trump’s Schedule for Friday, 3/24/17
10:15 AM Hold a National Economic Council meeting – Oval Office
11:00 AM Meet with Charter Communications CEO Thomas Rutledge and Texas Governor Greg Abbott – Oval Office
12:30 PM Lunch with Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin – Presidential Dining Room
2:20 PM Host a Greek Independence Day celebration – East Room
4:00 PM Meet with Medal of Honor recipients – Roosevelt Room

The House of Representatives is planning to vote on the American Health Care Act — the Republican bill to repeal and replace Obamacare — today. A specific time for the vote has not yet been announced, but if in fact it does happen, it’s expected to take place sometime in the late afternoon Eastern time.

President Donald Trump is endorsing the Republican proposal on health care as “a great plan,” ahead of a make-or-break vote in the House. The president tweeted Friday that “After seven horrible years of ObamaCare (skyrocketing premiums & deductibles, bad healthcare), this is finally your chance for a great plan!”
The vote had been scheduled for late Thursday but was postponed after administration officials failed to convince skeptical conservative Republicans to support the bill.
Trump claimed he was finished negotiating with GOP holdouts and determined to pursue the rest of his agenda, win or lose.
Barring any further delays, the vote is expected to take place later Friday.

Supreme Court nominee unscathed facing last day of hearings

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