People are angry, and that’s why they voted for Mamdani as the next Mayor of New York. People are sick and tired of struggling to make ends meet. In his victory speech, Mamdani said:
“We choose hope over tyranny. Hope over big money and small ideas. Hope over despair. Tonight, we have stepped out from the old into the new.”
His supporters are already marching in the streets, saying they don’t want Trump as a king or a dictator.
Hmm… I think I’ve heard this before.
More than two thousand years ago, in Rome, another man was accused of wanting to be king. His name was Julius Caesar.
A group of Roman senators assassinated Caesar out of fear that his growing power and titles, especially dictator for life, would destroy the Roman Republic. They claimed they were saving democracy, but their actions plunged Rome into chaos and civil war.
It was a betrayal that changed history, and a reminder of how fear, power, and instability often go hand in hand.
History Repeats Itself
Fast forward to France, 1848. The people were exhausted. Food prices were soaring, unemployment was rising, and inequality had reached unbearable levels. King Louis Philippe I, once known as the Citizen King, had promised a fairer, more modern France. But over time, his government became detached from ordinary people’s struggles.
One of the main sources of anger was the tax system. The poor and working class bore a heavy burden through indirect taxes on essentials like food, salt, and fuel, while wealthy landowners and property owners paid relatively little. Voting rights were also tied to property ownership, meaning most citizens had no political voice. When food prices spiked in the late 1840s, ordinary people were paying high taxes on top of already expensive necessities. Economic frustration reached a tipping point.
People in New York voted for Mamdani, who wants to raise taxes and, at the same time, give people fast and free buses. How is that going to be?
When protests erupted in February 1848, the king tried to silence them. Instead, the anger exploded. Barricades filled the streets of Paris, and after just a few bloody days, Louis Philippe abdicated the throne and fled to England in disguise.
The monarchy collapsed. The Second Republic was born. But what came next? A new leader. Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte, nephew of Napoleon I, rose to power, promising to restore stability and hope. Within four years, he declared himself Emperor.
Sound familiar?
It’s the same old story: people rise up against a system they believe is unjust, only to end up under a new one that looks strangely similar. Each era has its slogans: “liberty,” “hope,” “change,” “the people’s revolution”, yet the same problems remain. Prices go up. Ordinary citizens struggle. The rich adapt and survive.
Take a look at France today with its Yellow Vest protesters. People are struggling with their cost of living. I wrote an article about that for the first time, many years ago. And who is to blame now? The King? Napoleon? No, it`s Macron.
So, Why Are Prices Rising Again?
The cost of living has become the defining issue of our time. Food, housing, and energy prices are rising faster than wages. Families feel squeezed, not just in New York or Paris, but across the Western world.
But who is to blame?
It’s tempting to point the finger at politicians, corporations, or billionaires. Yet the truth is more complex. The problem isn’t one person. It’s the system itself.
A mix of factors drives today’s inflation:
Global supply chain disruptions from the pandemic and wars.
Energy shocks as the world shifts away from fossil fuels.
Corporate pricing power in markets where competition has shrunk.
Decades of easy money and debt have inflated asset prices but left wages behind.
Governments print money to stimulate the economy, corporations raise prices to protect profits, and central banks hike interest rates to cool inflation, all while ordinary people pay the price.
It’s a cycle that keeps repeating, no matter the century. In ancient Rome, it was grain shortages. In 1848, in France, it was bread and taxes. Today, it’s rent and electricity.
The Real Lesson
Historically, when people struggle, they often look for someone to blame, such as a king, a tyrant, or a president. Get rid of Trump, and everything will be fine. Get rid of Macron, and the sun will shine. They think removing the person will fix the system. But as history shows us, that rarely works.
Trump isn’t the cause of America’s problems. He’s a symptom of them. Just as Caesar wasn’t the reason Rome was collapsing, but rather the outcome of deep divisions and economic inequality that had built up for years.
When the cost of living becomes unbearable, people revolt. Sometimes at the ballot box, sometimes in the streets.
But unless we learn from history, each “revolution” just sets the stage for the next crisis.
In the end, it’s not about kings or dictators. It’s about systems. And if we don’t fix the system, the anger, fear, and struggle will continue. Just as it has for more than 2,000 years.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee the accuracy of this information. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
President Trump marks the 100th day of his second term, a benchmark that`s widely considered the first impression of any administration.
The milestone has its roots in the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt. Within months of taking office in 1933, he signed dozens of bills and executive orders that helped alleviate the nation`s financial crisis and set the New Deal in motion.
Trump has hit multiple records for his first 100 days in office, but the rapidity of his actions also highlights the fragility of relying on presidential actions to cement core politics. Trump has signed 142 executive orders since January 20. No one is near. Obama had 19 in 2009.
Trump left office in 2021 with an approval rate of 38%. Now, the approval rating sits at 42% in March. Biden, in contrast, capped off his first 100 days with an approval rating of 53%. Biden left office with an approval rating of 42%.
Speaker Mike Johnson said Trump has achieved more in 100 days than most presidents in their lifetime. Gingrich said Trump could be among the most consequential figures since the U.S. founding.
On the other side, the Democrats said Trump is failing in round two, and they still want to resist his agenda. Chuck Schumer said it`s been 100 days of hell under Trump. 100 days of hell for the American families. For the economy, and for the Democracy.
He also said that the start of Donald Trump`s second term has been the worst start of any president in modern times.
No matter what people believe, the future will judge him anyway, and money talks. The problems started a long time ago, and the problem is not Trump. He is in the Oval Office because of all the troubles.
The markets are rocky, and it will probably continue to be so for a while. A New World Order is on the way, and you cannot come through this without disruptions. Despite all this, Trump continues to do what he believes in.
One of the biggest problems is inflation. It`s low under Trump but was sky high under Biden. Inflation accelerated notably under Biden. In 2021, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) began to rise sharply, and it peaked at 9,1% in June 2022 (the highest in four decades).
Now, under Trump, the inflation is down to 2,4%, indicating that earlier pressures were easing.
But are we gonna blame Biden for this, and give Trump cred? While the most pronounced inflation occurred during Biden`s presidency, its origins are multifaceted, involving pandemic-era policies from both administrations, global supply issues, and geopolitical tensions.
Thus, attributing the inflation surge solely to one president oversimplifies a complex economic situation.
Under Trump, drug prices are down. The drop in the price was the largest ever recorded. Gasoline prices are down 7% since Trump took office. Energy prices are down 2%. Egg prices are down about 50% since Trump took office.
These price declines are in contrast to the persistently high inflation under President Biden, which reached the highest annual rate in the past 40 years. After suffering for years under the Biden Administration’s inflation, consumers are now getting welcome relief. On Biden`s watch, grocery prices rose 23%, and energy prices rose 34%.
Real average hourly earnings for middle- and low-income workers are up since Trump took office. The automotive sector is growing under Trump. Mortgage rates have declined, and Industrial production was at the seventh-highest monthly level ever recorded in March.
Since the beginning of the Trump Administration, at least $5 trillion in new investment in the U.S. has been pledged from both foreign governments and private companies.
Upon taking office, President Trump immediately blocked all unfinalized Biden-era rules, saving Americans over $180 billion – $2.100 per family of four over the next decade, and launched a bold, multi-agency effort to roll back existing federal regulations that drive up the cost of living. The combined savings from all of Trump’s actions equal just over $900 billion or nearly $11.000 per family of four over the coming decade.
President Trump has created 345,000 jobs since taking office in January. 188,000 (54%) of these were non-government and government-adjacent sectors. This is a dramatic improvement from the last two years of the Biden Administration, when three-fourths of all new jobs were in government or government-adjacent sectors.
Elon Musk also said that he would spend less time on DOGE and focus on Tesla, as the 130-day clock on his appointment as a «special government employee» runs down. «The DOGE team has made a lot of progress in addressing waste and fraud,» Musk said.
In an interview with Time, Trump called DOGE a «very big success.» «We found hundreds of billions of dollars of waste, fraud, and abuse,» he said. «It`s a scam. It`s illegal, in my opinion, so much of the stuff that we found, but I think DOGE has been a big success from that standpoint.»
As Musk steps down, DOGE`s work continues, but it`s too early to say what the long-term impact of DOGE will have on the federal government. Trump`s order gives the temporary DOGE organization a deadline of July 4, 2026, to accomplish its goals.
Musk said he will spend a day or two a week on government work. Trump is finished with the first 100 days of this second term, and will continue to work 100% for only $1. This is how he`s saving Americans. Will Trump`s revolution succeed? To be continued……
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Trump`s tariff is working, and the tariff dollars have started rolling into government coffers, according to the Treasury Department. The Department of Homeland Security deposited $15 billion in «customs and excise taxes,» the category that includes tariffs in April through the 24th og the month.
This is up from $9.6 billion in all of March.
The tax collection data shows that April was the month Trump`s campaign of tariffs started to make a real financial impact. Trump`s April 2 «Liberation Day» tariffs against all U.S. trading partners ranged from 10% for many countries to 145% for Chinese products.
Trump`s stated goals for his import taxes include raising revenue to fund the government, restoring U.S. manufacturing by protecting it from foreign competition, and pressuring foreign governments to make trade deals favorable to the U.S. Economists have warned the tariffs are likely to drive up the cost of living, and risk plunging the economy into a recession.
According to Peterson Institute, President Donald J. Trump`s new tariffs could generate trillions of dollars in new federal government revenue over a decade, but the net gain would be reduced by the measures` damaging effects on the U.S economy and the other economies likely retaliation.
Under the tariff rate, the U.S would see lower GDP, investment, employment, and real wages over the following decade than otherwise, i.e., than without the tariff increase, and higher inflation over the initial two years.
The U.S sectors hit hardest would be agriculture, mining, and manufacturing because of their relatively high reliance on foreign demand for their exports. The harm would be amplified by retaliation from trading partners.
Trump said in an interview with Fox News today that tariff revenue will eliminate income taxes for people making less than $ 200 K. Trump wants to cut all income taxes, but will start with those who earn less than 200 K. This is good news for the middle class. Lawmakers are now working to pass the final budget bill.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
President Donald Trump delivered his second inaugural address Monday. In his speech he said «We are at the start of a thrilling new era of national success». He also talked about the coming «golden era» and a «revolution of common sense».
Trump pledged to send American astronauts to Mars, marking a new chapter in space exploration. He also emphasized restoring American manufacturing through a new tariff regime and achieving energy independency by increasing oil production.
He announced plans to recognize only two genders and to restore positions, with full back pay, to federal employees and soldiers discharged for not receiving the COVID-19 vaccine.
President Trump expressed a desire to be known as a peacemaker, stating that a nation`s strength should be measured by the wars it ends or prevents, rather than those it wins. Overall, his speech focused on reversing policies from the previous administration and initiating what he termed «golden age» for America.
Trump had a speech for about 30 minutes in the Capital Rotunda. He described the U.S as «decline» and promised a «tide of change». Here is the trascript of Mr. Trump`s second inaugural address.
The full text of Trump’s inauguration speech
Vice President Vance, Speaker Johnson, Senator Thune, Chief Justice Roberts, justices of the United States Supreme Court, President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, President Biden, Vice President Harris and my fellow citizens:
The golden age of America begins right now. From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world. We will be the envy of every nation. And we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer.
During every single day of the Trump administration, I will, very simply, put America first. Our sovereignty will be reclaimed. Our safety will be restored. The scales of justice will be rebalanced. The vicious, violent and unfair weaponization of the Justice Department and our government will end. And our top priority will be to create a nation that is proud and prosperous and free.
America will soon be greater, stronger, and far more exceptional than ever before. I return to the presidency confident and optimistic that we are at the start of a thrilling new era of national success. A tide of change is sweeping the country. Sunlight is pouring over the entire world, and America has the chance to seize this opportunity like never before.
But first, we must be honest about the challenges we face. While they are plentiful, they will be annihilated by this great momentum that the world is now witnessing and the United States of America. As we gather today, our government confronts a crisis of trust. For many years, the radical and corrupt establishment has extracted power and wealth from our citizens. While the pillars of our society lay broken and seemingly in complete disrepair, we now have a government that cannot manage even a simple crisis at home while at the same time stumbling into a continuing catalog of catastrophic events abroad.
It fails to protect our magnificent, law-abiding American citizens but provides sanctuary and protection for dangerous criminals, many from prisons and mental institutions that have illegally entered our country from all over the world. We have a government that has given unlimited funding to the defense of foreign borders but refuses to defend American borders, or more importantly, its own people.
Our country can no longer deliver basic services in times of emergency, as recently shown by the wonderful people of North Carolina, who’ve been treated so badly. And other states who are still suffering from a hurricane that took place many months ago. Or more recently, Los Angeles, where we are watching fires still tragically burn from weeks ago without even a token of defense. They’re raging through the houses and communities, even affecting some of the wealthiest and most powerful individuals in our country, some of whom are sitting here right now. They don’t have a home any longer. That’s interesting.
But we can’t let this happen. Everyone is unable to do anything about it. That’s going to change. We have a public health system that does not deliver in times of disaster, yet more money is spent on it than any country anywhere in the world. And we have an education system that teaches our children to be ashamed of themselves, in many cases to hate our country despite the love that we try so desperately to provide to them. All of this will change starting today and will change very quickly.
Our recent election is a mandate to completely and totally reverse a horrible betrayal, and all of these many betrayals that have taken place, and to give the people back their faith, their wealth, their democracy and indeed their freedom. From this moment on, America’s decline is over.
Our liberties and our nation’s glorious destiny will no longer be denied and we will immediately restore the integrity, competency and loyalty of America’s government. Over the past eight years, I have been tested and challenged more than any president in our 250-year history, and I’ve learned a lot along the way. The journey to reclaim our Republic has not been an easy one, that I can tell you. Those who wish to stop our cause have tried to take my freedom and indeed to take my life. Just a few months ago, in a beautiful Pennsylvania field, an assassin’s bullet ripped through my ear. But I felt then, and believe even more so now, that my life was saved for a reason. I was saved by God to make America great again.
That is why each day under our administration of American patriots, we will be working to meet every crisis with dignity and power and strength. We will move with purpose and speed to bring back hope, prosperity, safety and peace for citizens of every race, religion, color and creed. For American citizens, Jan. 20, 2025, is Liberation Day.
It is my hope that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country. As our victory showed, the entire nation is rapidly unifying behind our agenda with dramatic increases in support from virtually every element of our society. Young and old, men and women, African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, urban, suburban and rural. And, very importantly, we had a powerful win in all seven swing states and the popular vote. We won by millions of people.
To the Black and Hispanic communities, I want to thank you for the tremendous outpouring of love and trust that you have shown me with your vote. We set records, and I will not forget it. I’ve heard your voices in the campaign, and I look forward to working with you in the years to come.
Today is Martin Luther King Day and his honor — this will be a great honor — but in his honor, we will strive together to make his dream a reality. We will make his dream come true.
National unity is now returning to America and confidence and pride is soaring like never before. In everything we do my administration will be inspired by a strong pursuit of excellence and unrelenting success. We will not forget our country. We will not forget our Constitution. And we will not forget our God.
Today, I will sign a series of historic executive orders. With these actions, we will begin the complete restoration of America and the revolution of common sense. It’s all about common sense. First, I will declare a national emergency at our southern border. All illegal entry will immediately be halted. And we will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came. We will reinstate my remain in Mexico policy. I will end the practice of catch and release. And I will send troops to the southern border to repel the disastrous invasion of our country. Under the orders I sign today we will also be designating the cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. And by invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, I will direct our government to use the full and immense power of federal and state law enforcement to eliminate the presence of all foreign gangs and criminal networks bringing devastating crime to U.S. soil, including our cities and inner cities.
As commander in chief, I have no higher responsibility than to defend our country from threats and invasions. And that is exactly what I am going to do. We will do it at a level that nobody has ever seen before. Next, I will direct all members of my cabinet to marshal the vast powers at their disposal to defeat what was record inflation and rapidly bring down costs and prices. The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices. And that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency. We will drill, baby, drill.
America will be a manufacturing nation once again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have: the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth. And we are going to use it. We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again, right to the top, and export American energy all over the world. We will be a rich nation again. And it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it.
With my actions today, we will end the Green New Deal and we will revoke the electric vehicle mandate, saving our auto industry and keeping my sacred pledge to our great American autoworkers. In other words, you’ll be able to buy the car of your choice. We will build automobiles in America again at a rate that nobody could have dreamt possible just a few years ago. And thank you to the auto workers of our nation for your inspiring vote of confidence. We did tremendously with their vote.
I will immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families. Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens. For this purpose, we are establishing the External Revenue Service to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury coming from foreign sources.
The American Dream will soon be back and thriving like never before. To restore confidence and effectiveness to our federal government, my administration will establish the brand new Department of Government Efficiency.
After years and years of illegal and unconstitutional federal efforts to restrict free expression, I will also sign an executive order to immediately stop all government censorship and bring back free speech to America. Never again will the immense power of the state be weaponized to persecute political opponents. Something I know something about. We will not allow that to happen. It will not happen again. Under my leadership, we will restore fair, equal and impartial justice under the Constitution and the rule of law. And we are going to bring law and order back to our cities.
This week, I will also end the government policy of trying to socially engineer race and gender into every aspect of public and private life. We will forge a society that is colorblind and merit based. As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders, male and female. This week I will reinstate any service members who were unjustly expelled from the military for objecting to the Covid vaccine mandate with full back pay. And I will sign an order to stop our warriors from being subjected to radical political theories and social experiments while on duty. It’s going to end immediately. Our armed forces will be free to focus on their sole mission—defeating America’s enemies. Like in 2017, we will again build the strongest military the world has ever seen.
We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end. And, perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into. My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be. A peacemaker and a unifier. I’m pleased to say that, as of yesterday, one day before I assumed office, the hostages in the Middle East are coming back home to their families.
America will reclaim its rightful place as the greatest, most powerful, most respected nation on earth, inspiring the awe and admiration of the entire world. A short time from now, we are going to be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. And we will restore the name of the great President William McKinley to Mount McKinley, where it should be and where it belongs. President McKinley made our country very rich through tariffs and through talent.
He was a natural businessman and gave Teddy Roosevelt the money for many of the great things he did, including the Panama Canal, which has foolishly been given to the country of Panama after the United States — the United States, I mean, think of this, spent more money than ever spent on a project before and lost 38,000 lives in the building of the Panama Canal. We have been treated very badly from this foolish gift that should have never been made. And Panama’s promise to us has been broken. The purpose of our deal and the spirit of our treaty has been totally violated. American ships are being severely overcharged and not treated fairly in any way, shape or form, and that includes the United States Navy. And above all, China is operating the Panama Canal. And we didn’t give it to China, we gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.
Above all, my message to Americans today is that it is time for us to once again act with courage, vigor and the vitality of history’s greatest civilization. So as we liberate our nation, we will lead it to new heights of victory and success. We will not be deterred. Together, we will end the chronic disease epidemic and keep our children safe, healthy and disease free. The United States will once again consider itself a growing nation, one that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities, raises our expectations and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons. And we will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars.
And it’s the lifeblood of a great nation. And, right now, our nation is more ambitious than any other. There’s no nation like our nation. Americans are explorers, builders, innovators, entrepreneurs and pioneers. The spirit of the frontier is written into our hearts. The call of the next great adventure resounds from within our souls. Our American ancestors turned a small group of colonies on the edge of a vast continent into a mighty republic of the most extraordinary citizens on Earth. No one comes close. Americans pushed thousands of miles through a rugged land of untamed wilderness. They crossed deserts, scaled mountains, braved untold dangers, won the Wild West, ended slavery, rescued millions from tyranny, lifted millions from poverty, harnessed electricity, split the atom, launched mankind into the heavens and put the universe of human knowledge into the palm of the human hand. If we work together, there is nothing we cannot do and no dream we cannot achieve.
Many people thought it was impossible for me to stage such a historic political comeback. But as you see today, here I am. The American people have spoken. I stand before you now as proof that you should never believe that something is impossible to do. In America, the impossible is what we do best. From New York to Los Angeles, from Philadelphia to Phoenix, from Chicago to Miami, from Houston to right here in Washington, D.C., our country was forged and built by the generations of patriots who gave everything they had for our rights and for our freedom. They were farmers and soldiers, cowboys and factory workers, steel workers and coal miners, police officers and pioneers who pushed onward, marched forward and let no obstacle defeat their spirit or their pride. Together they laid down the railroads, raised up the skyscrapers, built great highways, won two world wars, defeated fascism and communism, and triumphed over every single challenge that they faced.
After all we have been through together, we stand on the verge of the four greatest years in American history. With your help, we will restore an American promise and we will rebuild the nation that we love. And we love it so much. We are one people, one family and one glorious nation under God. So to every parent who dreams for their child and every child to dreams for their future: I am with you, I will fight for you and I will win for you. And we’re going to win like never before.
In recent years, our nation has suffered greatly. But we are going to bring it back and make it great again. Greater than ever before. We will be a nation like no other. Full of compassion, courage and exceptionalism. Our power will stop all wars and bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent, and totally unpredictable.
America will be respected again and admired again, including by people of religion, faith and goodwill. We will be prosperous. We will be proud. We will be strong and we will win like never before. We will not be conquered. We will not be intimidated. We will not be broken. And we will not fail.
From this day on, the United States of America will be a free, sovereign and independent nation. We will stand bravely. We will live proudly. We will dream boldly, and nothing will stand in our way. Because we are Americans. The future is ours. And our golden age has just begun.
Thank you. God bless America. Thank you all. Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Some people love Trump, and some people hate him. 75 million voted for Trump and they are satisfied. Trump and his supporters believe a «golden era» is coming. But people on the other side are scared as hell. They believe that Trump will take the U.S. out of NATO. That doesn`t make sense. What in the world is going on here?
I`m sick and tired of the blame game we see. Legacy Media is blaming Trump for all the wrong things that are going on. And some people believe in it. Europe is building its own defense system, and don`t blame Trump for that.
It can be a huge problem, but it can also be great. But are we friends or foes?
EU, NATO, and PESCO
The European Union’s push to develop its own defense capabilities through initiatives like PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) has sparked discussion over its future relationship with NATO and the United States. While NATO has been the backbone of European security since its founding in 1949, Europe’s focus on an independent military framework reflects a changing security landscape. Although the U.S. and EU share foundational values of freedom and peace, recent defense dynamics raise questions about the stability of this historic alliance.
NATO and the Trump Era: Increased Accountability
During his presidency, Donald Trump pressed NATO members to meet the alliance’s defense spending guideline of 2% of GDP, arguing that the U.S. bore too much of the financial burden for European security. This pressure led to significant increases in European defense budgets and served as a catalyst for Europe’s own defense initiatives. Contrary to fears of Trump wanting to leave NATO, his administration actually reinforced the alliance by pushing members to fulfill their financial commitments. As a result, Europe began preparing for a future where it could play a larger role in its own security.
The Emergence of PESCO: Europe’s Bid for Strategic Autonomy
PESCO represents the EU’s efforts to streamline its defense policies and collaborate more closely on security issues. Established in 2017, PESCO involves 25 EU member states who have agreed to invest, plan, develop, and operate defense capabilities collaboratively. The initiative seeks to address European security needs in a manner complementary to NATO, ensuring that Europe can act independently if required while supporting NATO’s broader objectives.
While some interpret PESCO as a step toward a “European army,” EU leaders have emphasized that the initiative is not intended to replace NATO but to strengthen Europe’s defense posture. The goal of “strategic autonomy” remains complex, as Europe’s leaders debate how to balance independence with their commitment to the NATO alliance.
Complex Relations Between Allies: NATO, PESCO, and the U.S.
The relationship between the EU and the U.S. is marked by shared interests but also significant challenges. Traditionally, both have aligned on security matters through NATO, yet the EU’s pursuit of PESCO hints at a desire for more independent decision-making. In scenarios where U.S. priorities shift toward the Indo-Pacific, Europe’s stronger defense mechanisms could offer the flexibility to address regional security concerns independently, such as issues in North Africa and Eastern Europe.
At the same time, a divergence in priorities, such as differing views on China or the Middle East, could test NATO’s cohesion. NATO’s structure requires a consensus, meaning that conflicting EU and U.S. agendas might hinder unified responses to global crises. Europe’s need for strategic autonomy may strengthen its regional security, but risks duplicating NATO’s efforts without close alignment, raising concerns about potential inefficiencies and gaps in defense.
Russia, Ukraine, and NATO’s Role
The Russian invasion of Ukraine underscored NATO’s role in European security. NATO’s support for Ukraine demonstrates the alliance’s commitment to European stability and its role in deterring aggression on the continent. However, NATO members have been cautious about allowing Ukraine to join as a full member due to the potential escalation with Russia. This ongoing conflict has prompted European nations to reconsider their dependence on U.S. security support, highlighting the importance of a robust European defense capability within PESCO while maintaining NATO’s strategic unity.
Challenges and Opportunities for NATO and EU Cooperation
In an ideal scenario, NATO and PESCO would complement each other, with Europe taking on more regional security responsibilities to balance the alliance. A stronger European defense framework could allow the U.S. to address global priorities while ensuring Europe’s security. However, if cooperation between the EU and NATO falters, their overlapping efforts could result in competition rather than synergy, impacting collective peace and stability.
The rise of cyber threats, climate change, and global health crises underscores the need for close transatlantic coordination. NATO’s historical role has been to unify Western democracies under a shared vision of freedom and peace. As the EU strengthens its defense mechanisms, NATO’s role may evolve, necessitating a recalibrated approach that respects Europe’s pursuit of autonomy while preserving shared security interests.
Conclusion: A Balanced Path Forward
The EU’s defense initiatives through PESCO represent a logical evolution in Europe’s security landscape, reflecting both its commitment to NATO and its desire for greater self-reliance. This development could reinforce NATO by sharing the security burden more equitably. However, maintaining cohesion and avoiding unnecessary duplication is essential. The EU and the U.S. must prioritize open dialogue and collaboration to ensure that NATO and PESCO complement each other, creating a resilient security framework for the modern world.
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