Tag Archives: Gold

by | March 5, 2014 · 2:11 pm

Market Update

Nikkei rose +1,20% after comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin eased worries about military action in Ukraine. We also saw a big bullish move in the U.S markets yesterday. It was so green and beautiful.

European shares are steady today and commodities like gold and oil is trading down today. It seems like the U.S markets will open up today. Not bad after the bullish race yesterday: Nasdaq was up +1,75%, while S&P 500 went up +1,53%. The DOW is trading at 16,395,88, up +227,85, which is up +1,41%. Wow!

It is difficult to predict the future for currencies and oil. That`s because it is all about politics. Investors don`t like war, and what Putin or Obama says or do will have a huge impact of the financial markets.

Reports today:

08:15 AM ET ADP Employment Report
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 PM ET Beige Book

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 26, 2014 · 1:53 pm

Gold price forecasts

Gold seems to have started a new bull market and the gold price is near a four-month high. Silver is at its highest since October 2013. A report from Street Research say that Chinese monetary authorities may be planning to convert the yuan into a gold-backed international currency. Primarily to deliver the dollar its comeuppance.

 

Data from CFTC shows that large players like hedge funds and other portfolio managers boosted their long exposures by 31% as on February 18. Gold prices should rebound because of the shift in the market from QE to tapering and global investor perception regarding currency values.

 

Technical selling, dollar`s strength, the sustained rise in equity and the Fed`s taper is the primary factors that caused the most recent fall in gold. The chart below is a study of the gold triggers since 1970:

Goldprice 1970 - 2014

The correlations between the gold price and the country’s balance sheet have turned negative lately. Combined assets of the U.S Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and BOJ could reach somewhere between $8 – 9 trillion in 2014. The analysts warn it can stay there for a while.

 

Liquidity and currency perception can drive the gold price movements rather than traditional supply – demand analytics. Chinese demand and the likelihood that Indian restrictions on gold imports could be lifted are macro factors that can be positive on gold prices.

 

The analysts expect that Central Banks would be strong buyers of gold in the future too. The analysts observe a 98% correlation between the US public debt and gold prices. With federal debt projected to rise to World-War-II levels by 2038, gold prices could be headed much higher.

 

Mining companies have adjusted their business models to the new low price environment and it is expected that the mining companies will sustain the performance and profit from it in the future. Commodity experts say India is playing a key role in the gold price.

 

The forecasts for gold are an average about $1300 per oz in 2014 estimates Sterne Agee. Silver is forecast at $23 per oz. The gold can vary from high $1,450 and a low of $1,100, while silver can reach $25 per oz.

Reports today:

10:00 AM ET New home sales

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | February 18, 2014 · 2:18 pm

Earnings reports

Nikkei rose 3,13% today. What a jump! This jump is based on good news for Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ kept monetary policy steady and maintained its upbeat assessment on the economy. It also decided to extend three special loan facilities.

It is mixed in Europe and it seems like the U.S markets will open up today. Gold is trading down -0,34% at $1314,50. Silver is down -0,03%, trading at $21,41. Copper is up +0,32%, trading at 327,50.

Earnings reports to follow today: Coca cola (KO) is reporting for the quarter ending December 31, 2013. Consensus earnings per share is $0,46. This is a 2,22% increase compared to the earnings for the same quarter last year.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) is reporting for the quarter ending December 31, 2013. The companies consensus earnings per share forecast is $0,17. This is a 1600% increase compared to the same period last year. Price to earnings for NCLH is 26,90, while the industry ratio is 22,10, which means NCLH have a higher earnings growth than their competitors.

I look forward to the earnings report from Tesla (TSLA) tomorrow. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending December 2013. Consensus Eearnings per share forecast for the quarter is $0,04. EPS for the same periode last year was $-0,78. A great jump!

tesla

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | February 12, 2014 · 2:07 pm

The other currency

The U.S stocks surged yesterday as the Fed and Janet Yellen said they would continue the central bank’s policy of providing monetary stimulus to bolster the economy. This is music in the investors ears!

 

«What would cause the committee to consider a pause in tapering is a notable change in the outlook,» Janet Yellen said. Republicans don`t want to fight anymore, so he house voted to raise the government`s borrowing l limit. This will continue until March 2015.

 

Asian and European stocks is up today, as the investors cheered Janet Yellens stance. Gold is down today. USD have always had an interesting relationship with Gold. When gold is rising the dollar has declined in the long term, but that is not true, in the short term, so the relationship can be tenuous at best. Take a look at the charts, and you can see for yourself. You can see a strong negative correlation to a strong positive correlation and back again.

 

This relationship can be linked to the Bretton Woods System. International settlements were made in U.S dollars and the U.S goverment promised to redeem dollars at a fixed gold rate. Bretton Woods Systems was dissolved in 1971. When gold is discussed, talk of the U.S dollar usually ensues.

 

Gold and U.S dollars can be seen as a trading pair like EUR/USD or other currency pairs, but it is important to remember that gold and currencies are dynamic and have more than one simple input.

 

Gold is impacted by far more than just U.S dollar, inflation or war. Gold can be traded all around the world as a global commodity and it reflects global sentiment. Not only a sentiment of one economy or group of people.

 

It seems like a new bullish trend have started, but be careful and take a look at the gold, equity markets and the U.S dollars during the 2008 financial crises. Gold plummeted like the stock market, and the U.S dollar skyrocketed. This is just a reminder.

Gold

 

Reports today:

 

10:30:00am EUR ECB Precident Drahi speeks        
10:30:00am USD Crude oil inventories        
01:01:00pm USD 10-y bond Auction        
02:00:00pm USD Federal budget Balance        

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | February 11, 2014 · 1:36 pm

Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies

An uneventful trading session yesterday made it a quiet session. The U.S indices finished up a few points. Dow +0,05%, S&P 500 +0,16% and Nasdaq +0,54%. Gold is running fast now. Trading at 1285,01. It seems like the market will open up today, but the rest of the day will be interesting.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is testifying before the House Financial Service Committee. The testimony comes in two parts: first part is a prepared statement that is releases before the testimony. The second part is a Q&A part.

As a Fed chairman/woman you need to be careful for what you say. Wrong word can be a disaster in the stock markets and vica verse. Therefore; the second part in the testimony can be a very interesting moment for the traders.

Gold rose today on expectations that the Fed Chair Janet Yellen will stay the course in winding down bullion-frendly monetary stimulus. What will Janet Yellen say today? The financial markets are hoping for reassurance that the Federal Reserves bond purchases will continue for a long time to come. Gold also rise up on worries over debt-ceiling talk. Silver is trading at $20,04.

Janet Yellen has served the Fed in different roles over the past 36 years. In this testimony she has a unique chance to reintroduce her self to the rest of the world. She need to be able to answer questions about the unemployment rate. What is the bottom line? What is the expectations about the growth? How fast and how long will it take to grow in the long run? Wages growth or inflation?

Reports today: Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies at 10:00am.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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