Tag Archives: Federal Reserve System

by | December 16, 2013 · 1:15 pm

Market overview

European shares is up today, led by Aggreko with a bullish trading update. The European market is up despite the concern about the FED`s tapering plans this week. Much higher fear in Japan, while Nikkei sled -1,6%.

The S&P was down -1,65% last week. The worst week since August. Facebook (FB) went in the opposite direction and bucked the market trend lower, finished up +11,22%, trading at $53,32. Facebook will now join both the S&P 100 and the S&P 500.

Many investors are very satisfied with this bullish year 2013, but now all the investors eyes are on the Federal Reserve later on this week. The FED have a two-day policy meeting Wednesday.

FED is very powerful! Everything they say have a huge impact of the financial markets. The question now is whether they will continue QE or start to taper, the huge bond buying program that has made the massive mega-rally on Wall Street.

Look out for the brand news later on this week. The FED Statment will be launched at 2pm ET. Later on the same day, a FOMC Press Conference will be held at 2.30pm. This is very very very important news.

News today (all times are Eastern Times) : Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30am, TIC Long-Term Purchases at 9:00am, Capacity Utilization Rate & Industrial Production at 9:15am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 26, 2013 · 2:17 pm

Consumer Spending

«There is only one side to the market.

Not the bull side or the bear side, but the RIGHT side».

Jesse Livermore

Another record high for the DOW yesterday, and Nasdaq topped 4,000 for the first time in 13 years.

Nasdaq closed at 3,994,573. Earlier it touched an intraday high at 4,007,093. The Dow ended at 16,072,54. S&P 500 dipped 2,28% and closed at 1,802,48.

It was not a good day for social media stocks yesterday. Twitter was down 4,7% and are now trading at $39,06. Facebook is down 3,1% and are breaking down from a technical support at $45,80. Facebook is now trading at $44,82. Yelp slid 6,7% and are now trading at $58,20.

Many investors are scared and expect a pullback, but the stock market can still go higher. The Dow has increased seven weeks in a row now, and S&P 500 is up 26,4% for the year. Investors continue to turn their back on gold and they expect the gold price to decline to $1,180 and that is its three year low.

Investors follow U.S data reports closely to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to start tapering in December. Gold prices are sliding down on concerns the Fed would start tapering its 85 billion a month asset-purchase program in December. So do the Silver prices, but Copper is up 1,33% on the week.

The precious metal turned bearish after the Fed`s minutes meeting. Fed said they will start tapering if the economy continues to improve as expected. Consumer confidence will be an important number to follow today. A level below 70 starts to be critical.

It is a shopping week now. Black Friday is the friday following Thanksgiving Day in the United States and this is usually the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. Shops opens earlier than scheduled, and this has been the busiest shopping day of the year since 2005.

Consumer confidence fell to 72,0 in November and that is its lowest since December 2011. The economists expected 74,5 this month so this was a surprise for them all. Forecast for the consumer confidence later today is 72,2 (previous 71,2). I will follow this later today (10.00am EST).

News today: Building permits and housing starts at 8.30am, CB Consumer confidence at 10.00am.

i_love_shopping

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 21, 2013 · 2:08 pm

To taper or not to taper

The FED`s FOMC minutes, said yesterday that they could see the Fed tapering its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program at one of the next few meetings the coming months. In addition, the committee members also saw the U.S. economy growing at a moderate pace.

This is not something new to us. They have earlier said that they want to see the unemployment rate below 6,5% and a better growth with a stabile inflation before they start to taper. Therefore, the U.S employment report in early December will be on traders and investors watch list now.

Once they came out with the news yesterday, the dollar index shot to its daily high, which is a bearish signal for the precious metals traders. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply. Where are the gold headed now?

From 1976 into the peak in 1980, gold rallied from $101,50 to $873 an ounce. A big bullish trend for the gold that time. Fear and greed are reflecting this chart, while people trade on emotions.

The gold indes peaked out and the market backed off and settled into a sideway trend from about 1982 to 1996. Then it started a sideways trend from around $281 to $514. A loooooong sideways trend for a loooong periode of time.

It went sideways in the 90`s and people considered the market to be «dead». But then the market changed in 2001 – 2002. It started a new trend that peaked out in September 2011, trading at $1900.

The chart is now very similar to the chart back in the early 80`s. If this is the future for gold, we are likely to see a sideways trend now.

But many people expect a big drop now because the market seems to be overbought. If that happend, we will se a change for the gold price. Probably a big jump. News today: PPI & Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 12, 2013 · 2:08 pm

FED speakers in focus

The benchmark Nikkei share average rose 2.2 percent to 14,588.68.The highest since Oct 23, and posted the biggest daily percentage gain since early September.

Dow hits record close and this is 35th this year. It was a quit session and bank holiday as the U.S celebrated Veteran`s day. The DOW finished at a new record close of 15,783,10. Up +0,14%.

The Federal Reserve will use its tentative outright treasury purchase schedule will pump nearly six billion dollars into the markets in one day. This can move some markets and look for the bond market.

On friday, Sony lounches its PlayStation 4, while Microsoft releases the Xbox One next week on Nov. 25. Great timing for both of them, but what do you want to buy? Playstation 4 or Xbox One?

Solar stocks are bouncing back again after last thursday’s SolarCity-led sellof. The industry sentiment has been increasingly positive because of the good earnings news, optimism about the demand for 2014 and signs government support remains healthy.

JA Solar (JASO) is up +10,1%. JKS is up 10,5%. CSUN is up +8,8%. STRI is up +7,3%. TSL is up +7,9%. Fed speakers are in focus.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 30, 2013 · 2:06 pm

FOMC conclusion today

Nikkei rose (1,23%) today on expectations that the FED will maintain its easy money policy for the next months. Europe is up today, and Copper jumped 0,9% extending the longest streak since July 24. Gold is trading at $1354,30.

FED started its meeting yesterday and will release a conclution later today. It is expected that the FED will continue the bond-buying campaign into 2014, and they will announce its policy decision at 2 p.m today. The FED has held interest rates near zero since 2008. They have quadrupled the size of its balance sheet to $3,7 trillion. All this with three rounds of bond buying.

It is expected that the FED will keep buying bonds at an $85 billion monthly pace until march next year. If Yellen win confirmation from the Senate, it goes the way people think. She will probably face tough questions from the Republicans who is critical of the Fed`s ultra-easy monetary policy, which is risky for the financial stability and for the future inflation.

The shutdown has slowed down the economy in Q4, and it will be interesting to see the numbers of months of economic data that may convince the FOMC that the recovery is continuing at a solid pace.

The FED conclusions today is important, but I will also look for Facebook earnings today. The traffic on the nr. 1 website in this social media business is expanding. So are the advertising, and so should the number. They could reach $100 billion in sales in the next five years.

Surprisingly, Pinterest drives more traffic to publishers than Twitter. Facebook, and it is undoubtly the best, nearly doubled its traffic since 2012. Forget the rest. Google+, LinkedIn, Youtube and other sosial media is a flop so far.

News today: ADP non-farm Employment change at 8:15am, Core CPI m/m at 8:30am, FOMC statment at 2:00pm.

FOMC-dice

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