by | October 29, 2013 · 1:16 pm

Apple`s profit and margins slid

Last year, Apple`s earning rose 61% in september 2012, but fell this year for the first time in at least a decade. On a conference call yesterday Mr. Tim Cook said that fourth-quarter profits slipped roughly 8.5%. Earnings: 7,5 billion in Q3, per diluted share, 2013 (8,2 billion in Q3 2012). EPS:$8,26 in Q3, 2013 ($8,67 in Q3, 2012). Revenue is $37,5 billion. Gross margin came in at 37 percent compared to 40 percent in the year-ago quarter.

Right after the results was released, the stock fell as much as 5,1%. After the closing bell, Apple was trading at $529,88. It is down about 25% since the top in September 2012 following the debut of the Iphone 5. Apple is not a growth company anymore. I hope the holiday season can change that.

Apple sold 33.8 million iPhones, (record for the September quarter), compared to 26.9 million in the year-ago quarter. They sold 14.1 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 14 million in the year-ago quarter. Mac sales came in at 4.6 million, down slight from 4.9 million in the year-ago quarter.

Mr. Tim Cook reported its best quarter in education ever, generating over $1 billion in revenue on sales of iOS and Mac products, including iPads, which took a staggering 94 percent tablet marketshare in schools.

Apple have a huge competition from Samsung, Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Lower-priced products from Samsung are taking marketshares along with the other mentioned companies above. Q4 is a very important season for Apple, and Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook is planning to sell new IPhones and Ipads at the end of this year.

Apple have spent a lot of time in their inovation this summer, and they are exploring new product categories with “significant opportunities,” Tim Cook said on a conerence call today. They will release a new iPad Air on Nov. 1. Later on, they will follow up with their new iPad mini with a high-definition screen.

Apple is happy to go into the holidays with their new products like iPhone 5c, iPhone 5s, iOS 7, the new iPad mini with Retina Display and the icredibly thin and light iPad Air, new MacBook Pros, the radical new Mac Pro, OS X Mavericks and the next generation iWork and iLife apps for OS X and iOS. The new iPhone will be available in 100 countries by the end of the year.

Not only the competitors are pressing Apple on margins. The shareholders are giving them some pressure too. Investor Carl Icahn (The one I wrote about, selling 50% of his shares in Netflix) has publicly said he want Apple to initiate a $150 billion buyback to boost the company`s stock price.

Apple paid out $36 billion in dividends and buybacks in the past 5 quarter, and are now discussing what to do with their cash. News on that case will follow early in 2014. Apple`s cash dividend will be $3,05 per share of the common stock, and is payable on November 14, 2013, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 11, 2013.

Market participants will continue to look at the earnings this week, as well as the FOMC meeting that will be released on Wednesday. News today: Core Retail Sales/Retail Sales & PPI at 8:30am, CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 28, 2013 · 1:38 pm

All time high

Nikkei bounced back on monday and advanced 2,2% after the downturn on friday. Topix rose 1,7% in a light trade with 2,32 billion shares changing hands. The European stocks rose to it`s five year highs today while the dollar is still under pressure. Gold is trading at $1,353,10 an ounce.

The S&P500 is up over 23% YTD. It`s time for Halloween this week, but all the ATH (all time high) are making many people scared, but that is not because of the Halloween. It is simply because the market is overbought.

Take a look at the S&P500 shart below. How many ATH can you count in that chart? You see? The world is going up and forward. Will this megatrend stop? If USA is like Japan twenty years ago, it will stop. They did never come back to it`s top. Take a look at the chart.

SP500_1955

The next months are the favorite months for many investors. If you look back over the past 60 years, the Wall Street results have been dominated by this very productive season.

You have probably heard the word October effec, the year-end effect or the January effect. Historically, November has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P500 and the third best for the Dow since 1950. It has also been the start of the most bullish months of the year, which extend to April.

You have also heard the word: “Sell in may and go away.” But sometimes it isn`t like that. Sometimes we see things are not going the way it should. You can rely on this as the forth and crucial element of the Quadruple Witching Season. Like the one that is sitting on top of other catalysts like the tide lifting all boats, but don`t forget stop loss, simply because what goes up, must come down.

50% of the companies on S&P500 have reportet their Q3 results and some of them have exceeded the investors expectations which made the rally we have seen so far in October. Today it is headed for Apple, and wednesday it is time for Facebook earnings. I look forward to both of them.

Pending Home Sales at 10:00am. (Forecast: 0,5%. Previous: -1,6%).

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 25, 2013 · 2:06 pm

Earnings

Japan`s Nikkei tumbled -2,75% today. Nikkei suffered the biggest one day loss since august, hit by yen`s strength against the dollar. Investors tend to fear that tight credit conditions in China will put the brakes on the world`s second largest economy. The rest of the Asian markets are also a little bit down. The european market is also a little bit down. Seems like the strong Euro hurts the earnings. Gold is up 1,2% to $1.346,60.

You have probably seen the father and son drama over Netflix stake? Billionaire investor Carl Icahn mean he did the right thing when he sold his Netflix stake, possibly worth hundreds of millions of dollars. But his son Brett, disagree. Icahn acquired Netflix shares for an average price of $58. Netflix shares are now trading at $331,22.

Carl Icahn cut his 9,4% stake by more than half to 4,5%. As I was writing about yesterday about risk/reward and how to buy stocks earlier, Icahn have, for all I know already decided when to go out and sell.

It will be interesting to see who of them, father or son, who was right. Anyway, It`s never wrong to take some profit. If the stock plummet, Carl Icahn can buy more. If the stock continue to go up, he still have 50% of the stocks in Netflix in his portfolio.

Earning came in yesterday. Here is some of them:

Microsoft (MSFT) beats estimates and shares rise +5,8% AH. EPS of $0,62 beats by $0,08. Revenue of $18,53B (+16% Y/Y) beats by $740M.

Zynga (ZNGA) beats Q3 estimates and shares soar. Up +11,3% AH. Q3 EPS of -$0,02 beats by $0,02. Bookings of $152,1M (-40% Y/Y) beats by $8,4M.

Samsung investing in Corning (GLW) +20,7% AH. Full Q3 results arrive on Oct. 30. GLW is taking full control of the Samsung Corning LCD glass JV. 43%-owned by Samsung Display. The Company says it expects to report Q3 revenue of $2,1B (+10% Y/Y) and EPS of $0,33.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 24, 2013 · 1:54 pm

Risk and reward

The U.S market fell yesterday and it was all red. Today the Asian market i up. Nikkei is up from a two week low. Gold is trading at $1334,50. Netflix is down -15% from it`s all time high. Are you willing to buy stocks in Netflix now? Or blue chips? What about risky small-cap stocks? Bonds?

Investing carries a certain amount of risk, but how much risk are you willing to take? What are you willing to pay for a stock? How much can you afford to lose? You have to look for risk and reward.

When you invest, you can get some pain, but you can also get some gain. That`s why you have to weigh the reward against the risk when you are investing. Understanding risk and reward is the key in investing in stocks and other financial papers.

You have all heard the words: “the higher the risk, the higher the potential return”. It`s very important to understand you own comfort level when you are investing. Then you will clearly understand the relationship between risk and reward.

Bank certificates of deposit (CDs) with a fedrally insured bank are also very secure. But the price for this safety is a very very low return on you investment. You can end up earning nothing when you calculate taxes on your gain and inflation.

To invest you need to think about the amount you are willing to put into the market. Before you invest, you must decide when you are willing to sell. How much rate of return or growth do you accept? And don`t forget fees, inflation and tax and the value of the dollar.

All those thing goes in different directions. That`s why many investors like to put different eggs in different baskets. Investors are diversifying their portfolios, and invest in different papers with various degree of risk. The goal is to take profit from a rising market, and to protect themself against dramatic losses in a down market.

New today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9:00am, New Home Sales at 10:00am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 23, 2013 · 12:27 pm

Alan Greenspan talks

Asian markets are down today. Hang Seng is down -1,36%. Nikkei -1,95%. KOSPI -0,99%. Shanghai -1,25%. All the European markets are down today. Everyone is red. Markets are falling, and Yen strengthened against the dollar following a bad miss for U.S employment data yesterday. It drops on concerns about central-bank tightening and debt write-offs at banks.

ECB plans to stress test 128 top eurozone banks over the next year and ECB intends to complete the testes by October 2014. ECB plans to stress test 128 top eurozone banks over the next year and ECB intends to complete the testes by October 2014. It aims to build confidence in the financial sector by improving transparency and implementing “corrective action” where needed.

Mr. Alan Greenspan is out with a new book, worries about the U.S economy. In his latest book, “The Map and the Territory,” he is talking about a warning to the FED balance expansion that may unleash inflation. We can see a price acceleration with today`s FED`s balances unchanged, ranging from 3% per unnum to double digits over the next five to six years, he writes.

Nobody have talked about a higher inflation, but instead the inflation has been on a record low level. That`s why Mr. Alan Greenspan is worried. The FED can prevent this threat by selling the bonds, and take the money back and out of the economy.

But; the FED are confident in plan 2: The FED pays interest on the money that the banks hold on deposit, and when the economy is getting better, the FED can increase the interest rate to induce the banks to hold the money on deposit. That can eliminate the inflationary pressure.

If the economy unexpectedly moves to go wild on a high gear, any credit tightening will run into political opposition. We have seen that before. It is also possible that the inflationary pressures won`t build until the economy has gone into a higher gear. It is possible for the FED to stay against inflationary and political pressures at the same time if the FED do their job right. News today: Import Prices at 8:30am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am.

Alan Greenspan

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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