Risky business

Copper is in red territory today, town -2,03%, followed by Crude oil (brent), which is down -0,80%. Gold and silver is up. Asia is trading down today. Hang Seng is down -1,75%, Shanghai is down -2,86%, while Nikkei closed down 1% at 15,120,14.

Asian markets tumbled today. People are worried about the Ukraine crises and some are disappointed about the surprisingly weak Chinese trade data released today. All this, despite the surprisingly good news from the U.S on friday. Nonfarm payrolls was better than expected.

The commodity-sensitive Australian and Canadian dollars suffered today, as copper of which China is a major consumer, reached a four-year low in Shanghai. Australian and Canadian dollars lost half a percent against a steady U.S dollar. The Chinese yuan opened down 0,5%.

Groupon Inc (Nadaq:GRPN), is still the market leader in the daily deal voucher sales, but the stock is declining while this stocks seems to be a risky stock. Most of the Groupon`s customers are often struggling merchant partner who can`t afford to pay.

In worst case, if many of them go bankrupt, then Groupon will lose a lot of money. In addition; Groupon will pay back the customers if the merchant fails, and unused vouchers has increased to $725 million.

Merchants need to offer discounts of 50%, and share 50% of the rest with Groupon. As you know, this is a risky business. Merchants do not earn money and have no control if too many vouchers are issued.

Groupon say they are «the morst effective local advertiser tool» available for marketers, but I think that the shoppers are the winners here. Mainly because the shoppers are one-time shoppers looking for good deal, better called «coupon hunters», which is not loyal repeated customers.

This can be a ticking bomb, and the stock is now trading at $8,60. The stock will open down today -0,58%. The stock is down -67,16% from the top, and so far this year the stock is down -26,90%. Groupon shows us that not everything in the social space is rosy.

Revenue growth and user growth is the king in the stock market.

Groupon logo

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Commodities, Stock market, Stocks

Digital detox day

It`s a digital detox day today.

Shiny Bull will be back on monday.

shinybull_for_sitesite-7

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Draghi speaks

Shares rose today following gains in Asia, while the Euro held steady on speculation the European Central Bank would ease monetary policy later in the day. The economy in the Euro zone is still fragile and the ECB was expected to keep interest rates on hold.

Emerging stocks and currencies were broadly higher as diplomatic talks to moderate the crises in Ukraine were set to continue. The European leaders are having a meeting in Brussels today. They will discuss Russia and warn them but not sanction them, diplomats said.

Fears of military confrontation is reduced, and the attention now has shifted to what ECB will do now. Investors are waiting for Draghi today. ECB may hesitate to buy government bonds, unlike other major central banks like U.S Fed and BoJ.

The problem in Europe is high unemployment rate and slow growth. Will all this end up in deflation? The Euro is now traded at $1,3720 and it is expected to hear dovish talking from Draghi later today.

When the risk in Ukraine is reduced, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen. It went up half a percent at 102,7 yen. The dollar index rose, which measures the greenback against a currency basket.

Reports today:

08:15 AM ET FOMC Member Dudley speaks
08:30 Am ET ECB Press Conference
08:30 AM ET Unemployment claims
08:30 AM ET Revised Nonfarm Productivity
10:00 AM ET Factory orders m/m
01:00 PM ET FOMC Member Plosser speaks

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Emerging markets, Stock market

Market Update

Nikkei rose +1,20% after comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin eased worries about military action in Ukraine. We also saw a big bullish move in the U.S markets yesterday. It was so green and beautiful.

European shares are steady today and commodities like gold and oil is trading down today. It seems like the U.S markets will open up today. Not bad after the bullish race yesterday: Nasdaq was up +1,75%, while S&P 500 went up +1,53%. The DOW is trading at 16,395,88, up +227,85, which is up +1,41%. Wow!

It is difficult to predict the future for currencies and oil. That`s because it is all about politics. Investors don`t like war, and what Putin or Obama says or do will have a huge impact of the financial markets.

Reports today:

08:15 AM ET ADP Employment Report
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 PM ET Beige Book

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Commodities, Stock market

Stocks rebound

We are in a positive territory again. Stocks up and commodities down. Gold is down -0,81% to 1,339,30. Copper is down -0,41 to 317,45. Crude Oil (Brent) is down -1,27% to 109,79. But Silver is up +0,17 to 21,27.

 

What Putin and Russia did was expensive to Russia. The Russian stock exchange (MICEX) plummeted after Putin declared the right to invade Ukraine. MICEX fell $58,4 bln from friday to monday, but are trading up again today.

 

The cost of the Winter Olympic games was $51 billion, held in the southern city of Sochi. In other words; the decision to invade Ukraine was more expensive for Russia than the whole Winter Olympic games.

 

Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops to turn back to the base and stop all military exercises. That is music in the investors ears, wich is now less nervous and the stock market is turning up again.

 

CAC 40 is up +1,34%. FTSE 100 is up 1,08%. DAX is up 1,03% and FTSE MIB is up +1,71%. Warren Buffet say war is a buying opportunity, because money in it self will lose value. Other investors say commodities like gold is a safe-heaven bet.

 

Tesla (TSLA) don`t care about wars. Trading up +2,13% yesterday and seems to continue up today. Tesla is up +619,3% (1 YR). So far in 2014, Tesla is up 70,1%. What a great company. It seems like the new safe-heaven is Tesla!

money2

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Commodities, Stock market, Stocks