Where is the gold?

Gold is very difficult to predict. Who knows how much gold USA have at the moment? Russia wanted to know for some time ago, but didn`t have access. What about China? How much gold do they have?

This is a big mystery right now.

Last time we heard something from China was back in April 2009, when they said that it owned 1,054 metric tons (mt) of gold. That is only 1% of its official foreign reserves, but it makes China the world`s sixth largest holder of official gold reserves, after the U.S, IMF, Germany, Italy and France.

What about the U.S? Do they have any gold left at all? Wait and see, because IMF (International Monetary Fund) will probably reveal the secret later this year.

Some gold is missing and where is it?

Gold_reserve_changes_1993-2014

(Picture: Change in US Gold Reserves 1993 – 2014)

 

It can be stored in different banks in China who have licenses to store them, and their gold stocks are not publicly disclosed. Second, it can be «on loan» to jewelry factories located around Shenzhen. This is how they did it in 2013 when the price of gold dropped 28 percent.

IMF and China are negotiating to have yuan or renminbi to be part of the IMF`s menetary reserve denominator. The Special Drawing Rights (SDR). I think that the IMF will come out with some news very soon that will make some investors nervous.

If China want to be a part of the elite club (Dollar, yen, pound and euro), they need to reveal how much gold they have as part of their reserves, and that is very important information investors have been wondering in many years.

Some people guess that China has about 3,000 mt, while others say 6,000 mt. China has replaced India as the world`s largest consumer of gold. They are the biggest importer, and the world`s biggest producer. One way to figure it out is to look at their trade data, domestic gold and numbers from China Gold Association.

As of March 2015, The biggest gold holder are the U.S with 8,133,5 tons. Nr. 2 is Germany with 3,384,2 and Nr. 3 is IMF with 2,814 tons of gold. Central banks stands for 17,2% of the world gold holdings. Investment (bars, coins) stands for 19,26%, while jewellery stands for 49,2%, according to United States Geological Survey (2011).

 

Us_gold_reserves

(Picture: US gold reserves and gold price)

 

The Federal Reserve hold the U.S gold, if they still has some left, but some gold lovers belive that the gold once backed the U.S currency is long gone. The gold has not been audited since 1953. But why are gold so important to China?

China want the world to see a stable renminbi, which means they need to back their balance sheet by gold than other fiat currencies. This is more actual now than never before, because all the central banks are «printing» money like crazy, making it unstable.

China`s currency renminbi is following the U.S dollar, but if their currency becomes a free-floating currency that will change. They will no longer follow the U.S dollar and their currency will not move on news from the Federal Reserve policy.

Renminbi has already surpassed the euro to become the second most used currency in international trade. China`s goal is probably to have all its trade settled in their own currency. As it stands now, every time the U.S dollar moves so does renminbi.

China`s GDP Growth rate expanded to a record low of 1,30 percent in the first quarter of 2015 over the previous quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. China`s GDP annual Growth rate expanded 7 percent in the first quarter of 2015.

I expect more stimulus from China in 2015 despite better than expected results in Q4. The deflationary pressure persists and the slowdown in the estate market is expected to continue. China have more than enough to think about.

The higher the dollar goes, the lower renminbi goes. That`s good for the U.S consumers because they can buy cheap from China, but what about the rest of the world. What about Europe? Of course they will not buy so much anymore, because the prices are in dollar.

China`s export will drop and that`s not China`s goal. This is probably why they want more control over their currency? And here is where the gold comes in. What are China thinking about gold and their own currency? IMF will probably give us the answer very soon?

If everything goes to plan, China will reveal its gold holdings later this year and that will move the markets. The first IMF meeting will take place now in May and the second meeting later this year. The gold price will move up or down, but it depends on the news.

The financial system of the West CAN be destroyed overnight. It will be very expensive if the gold goes up. Can we afford it?

Next meeting is in Q4 2015.

 


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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Hockey is business

It is so much hockey to watch at the moment and as a previous hockey player I`m watching as much hockey as I can. I started to play hockey as a 8-year-old kid, and my favorite team at that time was The Rangers.

I was wearing a hockey shirt from The Rangers and the big hero at that time was Gretzky. What a hockey player. But it`s still a lot of good players out there, and The Rangers have battled for six games against Washington Capitals.

All games have so far been so exiting with only one single goal in the difference, which is a sign of two great teams. But that`s not all. Yesterday, in their Game Nr. 7 in Madison Square Garden, only a six-second sequence separated them.

Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist are doing a great job. He saved all eight shots he faced in overtime, and The Rangers stayed steady. According to The New York Times, the last playoff games, dating back to last year, have been decided by one goal, an N.H.L record. That`s impressive.

Henrik Lundqvist is born in Aare, Sweden, and on 4 December 2013, he signed a seven-year, $59,5 million contract extension with the Rangers. He is the highest-paid goaltender in the NHL with an average cap hit of $8,5 million. Salary; $11 million USD (2015). Rangers fans gave him the nickname «King Henrik».

Talking about Lundqvist leads me to Sweden. It`s the World Hockey Championships right now, and Sweden will play against Russia later today. A match I`m looking forward to. Having Sweden in the finale would be a dream.

I`m also impressed by Canada, which is probably the best hockey team in the world right now. They won 9-0 in a match against Belarus earlier today. Canada is extremely strong and economic activity in Canada related to hockey is worth over $11 billion annually, according to a new report; Ice Hockey In Canada, 2015 Impact Study; The economic, Social, Community and Sport Benefits of Canada`s Favourite Game.

The study’s results estimate that $2.6 billion moves directly between communities in Canada each year as a result of hockey, with the division of revenue breaking down as follows:
· Tourism: 52%
· NHL clubs and major events: 31%
· NHL salaries that come back home: 10%
· Corporate sponsorships: 6%

 

Canada hockey

 

One of the best hockey players in the world right now is Sidney Crosby (Nr 87 on team Canada). He`s playing so smart and is so strong. Have you seen his shots? Awesome. Canada and Crosby knows what this is about. It is all about business. Show business. It`s fun to watch their games, and that`s business to me.

USA was also playing in a quarter-final earlier today in Ostrava, Czech Republic. Switzerland started to score one goal early in the match and was the leader after period one. The 2015 U.S Men`s National Team used two quick goals in the second period to spark a 3-1 victory over Switzerland.

Both, USA and Canada have the opportunity to be the world champions, but I will watch the game between Sweden and Russia later today. Lundqvist is doing a great job for Rangers and he should be playing for team Sweden today, but unfortunately he`s not. He`s in New York.

Sweden – Russia starts in a few minutes.

It`s showtime.

 


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Assassination attempt on the Pope

Today, on 13 May 1981, the fires attempted assassination of Pope John Paul II took place in St. Peter`s Square at Vatican City. The Pope was shot and he was struck four times and suffered severe blood loss. Who can do things like that?

The man behind this assassination attempt is Mehmet Ali Agca, born January 9, 1958, in Turkey. Agca has described himself as a mercenary with no political orientation, although he is known to have been a member of the Turkish ultra-nationalist Grey Wolves organization, which is a militant fascist group.

Agca was quoted as saying that «to me the Pope was the incarnation of all that is capitalism,» and attempted to murder him.

pope-john-paul

(Picture: Pope John Paul II in 1980)

John Paul II (born Karol Jòzef Wojtyla) is born in Poland and was the first non-Italian pope since the Dutch Pope Adrian VI, who served from 1522 to 1523. John Paul II is recognised as helping to end Communist rule in his native Poland and eventually all of Europe.

He significantly improved the Catholic Church`s relations with Judaism, Islam, the Eastern Orthodox Church, and the Anglican Communion. His wish was «to place his Church at the heart of a new religious alliance that would bring together Jews, Muslims and Christians in a great religious armada.

John Paul II had good relations with the Armenian Apostolic Church, and in 1996 he brought the Catholic Church and the Armenian Church closer by agreeing with Armenian Archbishop Karekin II on Christ`s nature.

During an audience in 2000, John Paul II had Karekin II, by then head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, issued a joint statement condemning the Armenian genocide.

The Armenian Apostolic Church is the world`s oldest national church. It is part of Oriental Orthodoxy and is one of the most ancient Christian communities. Armenia was the first country to adopt Christianity as its official religion in the early fourth century (traditionally in 301) in establishing this church.

The church claims to have originated in the mission of Apostles Bartholomew and Thaddeus in the 1st century and is an early center of Christianity. It is sometimes referred to as the Gregorian Church but this name is not preferred by the church itself, as it views the Apostles Bartholomew and Thaddeus as its founders, and St. Gregory the illuminator as merely the first official governor of the church.

Between the 16th and early 19th century, the traditional Armenian homeland composed of Eastern Armenia and Western Armenia came under rule of the rivaling Ottoman and Persian Empires, passing between the two over the centuries.

By the mid 19th century, Eastern Armenia had been conquered by Russia, while most of the western parts of the traditional Armenian homeland still remained under Ottoman rule. During World War I, the Armenians living in their ancestral lands in the Ottoman Empire were systematically exterminated in the Armenian Genocide.

After almost 600 years of statelessness, Armenia achieved Independence in 1918; however, the First Republic of Armenia, surrounded by hostile countries, was Sovietized in 1920. Between 1922 and 1991, Armenia was part of the Soviet Union.

The modern Republic of Armenia became independent in 1991.

Armenian_SSR

(The coat of arms of Soviet Armenia depicting Mount Ararat in the center).

 

The church struggled under Soviet rules, and suffered greatly under Stalin. Fears decreased when Stalin died in 1953, and the new era with Nikita Khruschev changed peoples life in Soviet Armenia. They began to see rapid improvment.

During the Gorbachev era of the 1980`s, with the reforms of Glasnost and Perestroika, Armenians began to demand better environmental care for their country, and Gorbachev collaborated much with John Paul II.

Gorbachev once said “The collapse of the Iron Curtain would have been impossible without John Paul II.”  On John Paul II’s death, Mikhail Gorbachev said: “Pope John Paul II’s devotion to his followers is a remarkable example to all of us.”

Pope John Paul II was born in 1920 and faced deportation in Poland by the Germans, probably because he was of Jewish descent. So, he took a difficult Laborer`s job in a Stone Quarry to escape deportation and imprisonment. He also worked in War Chemical Plant to escape 1944 deportation. He worked in a chemical plant until August of 1944.

Most of the Pope`s family friends were jewish, and John Paul II became the first Pope to visit a synagogue and the first to visit the memorial at Auschwitz to victims of the Holocaust. In ending the Catholic-Jewish estrangement, he called Jews «our elder brothers.»

His father died of a heart attack in 1941, and at the age of twenty he had already lost all the people he loved. Wojtyla was the immediate family`s only surviving member. He was not at his mothers, brothers or fathers death.

When he became pope in 1978 at the age of 58, John Paul II was an avid sportsman. He was extremely healthy and active, jogging in the Vatican gardens, wight training, swimming, and hiking in the mountains. He was fond of football.

On 1 May 2011, Pope Benedict XVI attributed one miracle to John Paul II; the healing of a French nun from Parkinson`s disease. A second miracle attributed to John Paul II in 2013, confirmed by Pope Francis. (Two miracles must be attributed to a person to be declared a saint). In the years since his death, John Paul II has since been made a saint by the Roman Catholic Church. He is referred to by Roman Catholics as Pope Saint John Paul II or Saint John Paul the Great.

The three popes who today commonly are known as «Great» are Leo I, who reigned from 440-461 and persuaded Attila the Hun to withdraw from Rome; Gregory I, 590-604, after whom the Gregorian Chant is named; and Pope Nicholas I, 858-867.

John Paul II the Great is only the fourth pope to be so acclaimed, and the first since the first millenium.

According to John Lewis Gaddis, one of the most influential historians of the Cold War, the Pope`s trip to Poland led to the formation of Solidarity and would begin the process of Communism`s demise in Eastern Europe:

When Pope John Paul II kissed the ground at the Warsaw airport he began the process by which Communism in Poland and ultimately elsewhere in Europe would come to an end.

On later trips to Poland, he gave tacit support to the Solidarity organisation. These visits reinforced this message and contributed to the collapse of East European Communism that took place between 1989/1990 with the reintroduction of democracy in Poland, and which then spread through Eastern Europe (1990–1991) and South-Eastern Europe (1990–1992).

John Paul II was the catalyst for «a peaceful revolution» in Poland. The founder of Solidarity, Lech Walesa, credited John Paul II with giving Poles the courage to demand change. It has also been widely alleged that the Vatican Bank covertly funded Solidarity.

He has been credited with being instrumental in bringing down Communism in Central and Eastern Europe, by being the spiritual inspiration behind its downfall.

He was the second longest-serving pope in modern history after Pope Pius IX, who served for nearly 32 years from 1846 to 1878. Wojtyla became the 264th pope according to the chronological list of popes, the first non-Italian in 455 years.

Several theories exist concerning Mehmet Agca`s assassination attempt.

Agca was born in the Hekimhan district, Malatya Province in Turkey. As a youth, he became a pretty criminal and a member of numerous street gangs in his hometown. He became a smuggler between Turkey and Bulgaria.

He claims to have received two months of training in weaponry and terrorist tactics in Syria as a member of the Marxist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine paid for by the Communist Bulgarian government, although the PFLP has denied this.

After training he went to work for the far-right Turkish Grey Wolves, who were at the time destabilizing Turkey, which led to the 1980 Turkish coup dètat. It has been claimed ultranationalist Grey Wolves were being used by the CIA. For instance, according to Kendal Nezan of the Kurdish Institute of Paris, they were infiltrated and manipulated by the Operation Gladio «Stay-behind» networks, a NATO clandestine structure.

In 1979, he murdered Abdi Ipekci (Editor of the major Turkish newspaper Miliyet) under order from the Grey Wolves. He was caught due to an informant and was sentenced to life in prison. After serving six months, he escaped with the help of Abdullah Catli, second-in-command of the Grey Wolves and a prominent Gladio operative, and fled to Bulgaria, which was a base of operation for the Turkish mafia.

According to Reuters, Agca had «escaped with suspected help from sympathizers in the security services».

On 13 May 1981, Agca`s plan (according to himself) was to open fire in St. Peter`s Square and escape to the Bulgarian embassy under the cover of the panic generated by a small explosion. On May 13 he sat in the square, writing postcards and waiting for the Pope to arrive.

When the Pope passed him, Agce fired several shots and wounded him, but was grabbed by spectators and Vatican security chief Camillio Cibin and prevented from finishing the assassination or escaping.

Four bullets hit John Paul II, two of them lodging in his lower intestine, the others hitting his lift hand and right arm. Two bystanders were also hit. Celik panicked and fled without setting off his bomb or opening fire.

The Pope survived the assassination attempt.

Agca was sentenced in July 1981 to life imprisonment in Italy for the assassination attempt. After serving almost 20 years of a life sentence in prison in Italy, Agca was pardoned by the then Italian president Carlo Azeglio Ciampi in June 2000 and deported to Turkey.

Agca was extradited to Turkey in 2000 by benefiting from the Conditional Amnesty Law.

In early February 2005, durig the Pope`s illness, Agca sent a letter to the Pope wishing him well and also warning him that the world would end soon. While in prison in 2007, he claimed to convert to Christianity. He claimed to be the Messiah at his trial and has made many bizarre statements over the years, although it has never been clear whether he is mentally unstable or merely acting.

On May 2, 2008, Agca asked to be awarded Polish citizenship as he wished to spend the final years of his life in Poland, Pope John Paul II`s country of origin.

Agca was released from jail on January 18, 2010. He was transferred to a military hospital in order to assess if, at 52, he was still fit for compulsory military service. The military found him unfit for military service for having «antisocial personality disorder».

In a statement, he announced: «I will meet you in the next three days. In the name of God Almighty, I proclaim the end of the world in this century. All the world will be destroyed, every human being will die. I am not God, I am not son of God, I am Christ eternal.»

On April 2 2005, Pope John Paul II died in his private apartment of heart failure, 46 days before his 85th birthday. He had no close familiy by the time of his death. Present at the bedside was a cardinal from Ukraine, which is an heavily Orthodox nation.

The former assassin visited the tomb of John Paul II on the 27 December 2014.

 


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Apple beats Xiaomi in China

It is a big difference between Apple and Xiaomi, and the difference is that Apple is at the top while Xiaomi is at the bottom of the price scale. Xiaomi`s price strategy is to sell cheap mobile phones while Apple is an expensive brand.

Xiaomi has so far been the fastest growing handset maker and often described as the Chinese version of Apple. In August last year they went to be the new No. 1 smartphone vendor in China. At that time, they took the place from the big brand Samsung Electronics Co.

Think different

Xiaomi`s sale was booming and exploded by 240% last year, and they bolstered by the booming sales of its low-cost RedMi range, and took a 14% market share in the world`s largest smart phone market.

The reason why Apple is successful in the Chinese market is many, but one of them could be China Mobile`s aggressive 4G strategy last year. It may have helped China`s Apple but also the U.S Apple as well.

Now, for the first time, Apple has overtaken Xiaomi to become the largest vendor of smartphones in China, and as you probably know; China is the world`s biggest market and Xiaomi`s home market.

Apple surpassed Xiaomi in Q1 of 2015, and grabbed 14,7% market share, while Xiaomi had 13,7% market share, according to market researcher the International Data Corporation (IDC). Both, Apple and Xiaomi are on top in the Chinese market, followed by Huawei, Samsung and Lenovo.

This is all big brands not only on the Chinese market, but also on the international mobile phone market. The Chinese market is one of the world`s largest smartphones market, but it is also one of the most fiercely competitive.

A few companies has occupied that market and that is Samsung and Lenovo which have topped the list last year. Apple, Xiaomi, Huawei, Samsung and Lenovo took up 57,8% of the market in the first three months of 2015.

But there is a shift in the market, while Apple, Xiaomi and Huawei saw shipments increase, previous leaders in the smartphones market like Samsung and Lenovo declined. 4,3% fewer smartphones were shipped in Q1 2015 compared to Q1 2014.

This is the first drop in over 6 years, but this is still big business.

The growth in tech and biotech has been so huge in the U.S market, that the market cap of U.S tech and biotech companies exceeds the market cap of ALL the companies in emerging markets and the euro zone.

The technology innovation is disrupting everything and it took 5,500 days for Nasdaq to retrace the highs that were hit in March of 2000, but the technology now is light years ahead of where is was then.

Everything in the world is about to change right now!

 


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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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