The Revolution of 1848 and Europe like it is today

Euro zone have always been a danger zone, and if you look at Europe right now, it is very similar to what happened in the Revolution of 1848, also know as the Spring of Nations, People`s Spring, Springtime of the Peoples, or the Year of Revolution.

It was a series of political upheavals throughout Europe in 1848. It remains the most widespread revolutionary wave in European history. The revolution was essentially democratic in nature, with the aim of removing the old feudal structure and creating independent national states.

The revolutionary wave began in France in February, and immediately spread to most of Europe and parts of Latin America.

 

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Over 50 countries were affected, but with no coordination or cooperation between their respective revolutionaries. Six factors were involved:

  1. widespread dissatisfaction with political leadership
  2. demands for more participation in government and democracy
  3. demands for freedom of press
  4. the demands of the working classes
  5. the upsurge of nationalism, and finally
  6. the regrouping of the reactionary forces based on the royalty, the aristocracy, the army, the church and the peasants.

The revolutions were most important in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Italy, and the Austrian Empire. As with several instances of revolution in Europe previously that of 1948 was to have its major point of origin in France.

The revolution arose from such a wide variety of causes that it is difficult to view them as resulting from a coherent movement or set of social phenomena.

Technological change was revolutionizing the life of the working classes.

A popular press extended political awareness, and new values and ideas such as popular liberalism, nationalism and socialism began to emerge. Some historians emphasize the serious crop failures, particularly those of 1846, that produced hardship among peasants and the working urban poor.

Poor grain harvests, the appearance of blight. An extremely serious disease. In potato crops, and generally depressed economic conditions across much of Europe in 1845 – 1846 led to sharply rising food prices, unemployment, and a radicalization of political attitudes.

Dramatic increases in the prices of food and fuel contributed to a situation where there were serious outbreaks of hunger-related Typhus fever, causing many fatalities. Trade was disrupted as there was less general spending as food came first where the poorest classes of people struggled to keep themselves fed and everyone found the necessities of life to be much more expensive.

The levels of unemployment rose significantly. Such general economic dislocation brought with it increases in crime as persons broke the laws in their efforts to get food, fuel or cash.

 

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Those suffering from various forms of economic deprivation lost confidence in the authorities ability to help them and became somewhat resentful of occupational groups who could be seen as profit in from the crisis. In many cases the authorities found it very difficult to receive customary tax revenues as the population had a significantly reduced ability to pay.

During this times France was yet a monarchy under Louis Phillipe but with his «Liberal» monarchy having few real supporters. Elections were held on the basis of quite limited suffrage. Only some 170,000 wealthy men, (approximately one person in two hundred of an overall French population of 35 millions), could legally vote.

Many French people felt excluded from any possibility of gaining wealth, many also felt that the bourgeois «Liberal» monarchy of Louis Phillipe compared unfavourably with earlier «Glorious» eras of French Monarchy or Empire.

Louis Phillipe dismissed his unpopular Prime Minister Guizot on the 23rd and himself abdicated on the 24th. In the wake of these dramatic developments there was an establishment of a Provisional Government of a French Republic.

On the 25th February a group of socialists, armed and carrying red flags, gathered in front of the Hotel de Ville (or City Hall) in Paris where their insistence secured a decree which proclaimed that the newly formed provisional government would undertake to provide work and would also recognise workers rights to combine.

«The Government of the French Republic binds itself to guarantee the livelihood of the workers by providing work…. it will guarantee work for all citizens. It recognises that workers may organise in order to enjoy the profits of their labour.»

The rising tide of cultural and linguistic nationalism which Europe had experienced since the later eighteenth century was marked.

The middle class began to agitate. Although Karl Marx and Fredrich Engels, working in Brussels, had written The Communist Manifesto (published in German and London on February 21, 1848) at the request of the Communist league (an organization consisting principally of German workers), once they began agitation in Germany following the march insurrection in Berlin, their demands were considerably reduced.

They issued their «Demands of the Communist Party in Germany» from Paris in March, the pamphlet only urged unification of Germany, universal suffrage, abolition of feudal duties, and similar middle-class goals.

The middle and working classes thus shared a desire for reform, and agreed on many of the specific aims. Their participation in the revolutions, however, differed. While much of the impetus came from the middle classes, much of the cannon fodder came from the lower. The revolts first erupted in the cities.

The population in French rural areas had risen rapidly, causing many peasants to seek a living in the cities. Many in the bourgeoisie feared and distanced themselves from the working poor. Many unskilled laborers toiled from 12 to 12 hours per day when they had work, living in squalid, disease-ridden slums.

Traditional artisans felt the pressure of industrialization, having lost their guilds. Revolutionaries such as Karl Marx built up a following.

 

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The situation in the German states was similar. Parts of Prussia were beginning to industrialize. During the decade of the 1840`s, mechanized production in the textile industry brought about inexpensive clothing that undercut the handmade products of German tailors.

Reforms ameliorated the most unpopular features of rural feudalism, but industrial workers remained dissatisfied with these and pressed for greater change.

Urban workers had no choice but to spend half of their income on food, which consisted mostly of bread and potatoes. As a result of harvest failures, food prices soared and the demand for manufactured goods decreased, causing an increase in unemployment.

During the revolution, to address the problem of unemployment, workshops were organized for men interested in construction work. Officials also set up workshops for women when they felt they were excluded. Artisans and unemployed workers destroyed industrial machines when they threatened to give employers more power over them.

Rural population growth had led to food shortages, land pressure, and migration, both within and for Europe, especially to North America. In the years 1845 and 1846, a potato blight caused a subsistence crisis in Northern Europe.

 

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The effects of the blight were most severely manifested in the Great irish Famine, but also caused famine-like conditions in the Scottish-Highlands and throughout continental Europe. Aristocratic wealth (and corresponding power) was synonymous with the ownership of farm lands and effective control over the peasants. Peasants grievances exploded during the revolutionary year of 1848.

Despite forceful and often violent efforts of established and reactionary powers to keep them down, disruptive ideas gained popularity: democracy, liberalism, nationalism, and socialism.

The first outbreak came in Sicily, starting in January 1848. There had been several previous revolts against Bourbon rule; this one produced an independent state that lasted only 16 months before the Bourbons came back.

The failed revolt was reveres a dozen years later as the Bourbon kingdom of the Two Sicilian collapsed in 1860 – 1861 with the Risorgimento.

The «February Revolution» in France was sparked by the suppression of the campagne des banquets. This revolution was driven by nationalist and republican ideals among the French general public, who believed the people should rule themselves.

It ended the constitutional monarchy of Louis-Phillippe, and led to the creation of the French Second Republic. This government was headed by Louis-Napoleon, who, after only four years, established the Second French Empire in 1852.

Alexis de Tocqueville remarked in his Recollection of the period, «society was cut in two: those who had nothing united in common envy, and those who had anything united in common terror.»

The «March Revolution» in the German states took place in the south and the west of Germany, with large popular assemblies and mass demonstrations. Led by well-educated students and intellectuals, they demanded German national unity, freedom of the press, and freedom of assembly.

The uprising was not well-coordinated, but had in common a rejection of traditional, autocratic political structure in the 39 independent states of the German Confederation. The middle-class and working-class components of the Revolution split, and in the end, the conservative aristocracy defeated it, forcing many liberals into exile.

Great Britain, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, the Russian Empire (including Poland and Finland), and the Ottoman Empire were the only major European states to go without a national revolution over this period.

Sweden and Norway were little affected. Serbia, though formerly unaffected by the revolt as it was a part of the Ottoman state, actively supported the Serbian revolution in the Habsburg Empire.

Russia`s relative stability was attributed to the revolutionary groups’ inability to communicate with each other.

Switzerland and Portugal were also unaffected in 1848, though both had gone through civil wars in the preceding years (the Sonderbund War in Switzerland and the Liberal Wars in Portugal). The introduction of the Swiss Federal Constitution in 1848 was a revolution of sorts, laying the foundation of Swiss society as it is today.

General Cavaignac was invited by the assembly to continue with the exercise of sweeping powers until a new constitution was in place. In their efforts to secure social peace in Paris the authorities arranged, by law of 19 September, for the emigration of several thousand workers, with their families, to colonial north Africa as agricultural settlers.

A budget of 50 million francs, an enormous sum for those days, spread over several years, was put in place to fund the programme.

Several «french» adminstrative Departments were established in colonial North Africa with an expectation that their politically enfranchised, (i.e. Mainly french colonial), inhabitants would receive rights of representation in the National Assembly.

Europe today is far away from the Revolution of 1848, but many young people feel the same as people did about 150 years ago. They feel that the system is hopelessly anachronistic. They feel in crushes creativity, and they feel that they are being undone by new technologies and lifestyles.

Just like 1848, there is optimism, but at the same time it is also fear of religious, ethnic or nationalist forces unleashed. Everything is going in cycle, and the time we`re living in now is similar to the year of 1848.

skjold5

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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GoPro must rethink its VR strategy

GoPro was once a Wall Street favorite. Right after the IPO, the stock peaked at about $87 in October 2014. That was then. The stock has been falling since then and are now trading at about $12.

The stock has plummeted on weaker demand and an economic slowdown in China. Many analysts have lowered GoPro`s expectations for 2016 and 2017 EPS and revenue, as well as average selling price expectations.

 

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The competition in the market put a pressure on GoPro as both Sony and Xiaomi are launching similar products. The action camera space has become increasingly crowded and commoditized. The company`s target market has become saturated with cheaper and more innovative products, severely hurting its bottom line.

They will also meet challenges from Facebook on their VR ambitions. Facebook encourage everyone on the platform to make their own high-end 360-degree cameras, which means GoPro need to build a new strategy for their VR ambitions.

Investor need to know that GoPro is innovative enough to create a new VR capture device that can beat their competitors like Facebook.

GoPro President, Bates said last quarter that virtual reality is a «key initiative,» and that it had «several products in development that will position GoPro as a leader in VR.»

The competition between Surround 360 makers are tightening and GoPro can lose the high-end VR camera market to other new players and one of the cheaper rivals are Ricoh.

The $400 HEO4 camera has consistently missed sales forecasts, leading to steep price cuts to spur demand. Thats not profitable for the company in the long run, so investors are now holding out hope that GoPros Karma Drone, set to launch later this quarter, is the product that can resuscitate the company.

GoPro bulls belive the launch of Karma drone and a new HERO5 cameras might get the firm back on track, but the company doesnt have a new release date for either device. We only know its gonna be later this quarter.

This puts growth expectations at -302% for EPS and -48% for sales.

Esimize consensus calls for EPS of $-0,55, which is three cents above Wall Street. Revenue expectations of $171,6M are just slightly higher than the Street`s $169,6M. Numbers on the bottom-line have been ratcheted down 899% in just the last 3 months, with top-line numbers reduced 49%.

Watch out for the report on May 5, 2016, after the close.

GoPro aquired smaller companies like Kolor, which produces 360-degree videos, and video editing startups Stupeflix and Vemory, and remain to see if that can help the company to diversify their business.

 

skjold5

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Tesla plans to sell 400 000 Model 3 for under $35,000 each

Tesla is a great vehicle, but the stock is not among my top ten favorite stocks. It`s expensive to build vehicles in a very competitive industry which means they are burning a lot of money with a high cost.

Tesla will report results on Wednesday, May 4, 2016, after the bell.

tesla

Tesla plans to sell Model 3 to the mass-market in 2017, and the price is set to $35,000 and have already 400,000 preorders. That sounds good, but investors are concerned about their ability to deliver.

The company guided for about 80,000 – 90,000 deliveries of their Model X and Model S last year, but we all know that this was too optimistic. In 2016, they delivered a record 50,000 vehicles but failed to meet volume expectations the company set earlier in the year.

Tesla is still aiming to scale production up to 500,000 vehicles per year by 2020, and is now on the hook to deliver 400k of one model, with production starting next year. Model 3 will come with lower margins.

Model 3 comes on top of Model X and Model S, and a third model will keep Tesla`s profits in the red for the foreseeable future. Operating expenses currently accounts for almost 50% of their revenue.

Large amounts of money is already spent in launching their first SUV and building out a sustainable battery. As production ramps up for each of these models, energy credits from green technology are expected to shrink proportionally to sales growth.

Estimize call for EPS of $-0,51, which is 1 cent higher than Wall Street, while revenue estimates of $1,60B are just slightly above the sell-sides $1,59B. The crowd has been bearish on Teslas profitability, moving EPS estimates down -326% since the Q4 report, now expecting earnings to decline 10% on a YoY basis.

Revenue estimates have also been ratcheted down by 8% but are expected to grow 47% from the year-ago period.

Investors are waiting for a forward-looking guidance on Wednesday. Not only Q1 results.

 

skjold5

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Halliburton`s merger plan with Baker Hughes collapsed

The oil price has plummeted. So has the stocks in this sector, but where is the bottom for the oil price. And what about all the companies that are struggling because of the low oil price? I will take a closer look at Halliburton Company this time.

They postponed the earnings call and the company is set to report first-quarter earnings 2016 on Tuesday May 3.

 

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Halliburton`s stock peaked in the summer of 2014 at about $70, but that was then. The stock has, like many other stocks in the same sector, plummeted, trading at about $40. When it comes to earnings, Halliburton have surprised investors with a positive earnings surprise of about 30% last quarter.

Halliburton Company is a provider of services and products to the upstream oil and natural gas industry. The company operates under two divisions, which form the basis for its two operating segments: the completion and production segment, and the Drilling and Evaluation segment.

Their business is positively correlated with the oil price, and they support upstream companies that include drilling firms setting up their oil and gas wells. It speak for itself. The lower the oil price, the lower the demand for oil field services firms it will be.

Todays low oil price is not good for the energy sector and so is it for Halliburton and their upstream operations or oilfield services players in the same sector. Therefore, it can be difficult for them to increase the earnings this time.

Halliburton`s market cap is $35,72 billion, and the company conducts its business in approximately 80 countries. But they want more. They want to grow and find a new business combination to deliver benefits for shareholders, customers and their employees.

In November 2014, Halliburton announced the Baker Hughes takeover in a bid to better compete against its competitor and industry leader Schlumberger Ltd. The deal could be great for Halliburton, but merger watchdogs from Washington and Brussels wanted it different.

On Sunday, May 1, the merger plan collapsed under the weight of worldwide antitrust opposition. EU`s Vestager says firms’ customers warned of risks of deal. They tried to get approval from regulators in the U.S, EU, Australia and Brazil, but Halliburton and Baker Hughes failed to overcome concerns shared by watchdogs who claim that the deal would reduce choice in oilfield services, and that in turn would push the oil and gas prices higher for the consumers. The $28 billion deal ended on Sunday May 1.

U.S Justice Department chief Bill Baer said in April that the problems were «unfixable» for a transaction critical to the American economy. Investigators in the country identified 23 markets where they said the transaction would create a duopoly with market leader Schlumberger.

Brazils oil company Petrobras told antitrust regulator CADE about its competition concerns in a number of service lines. CADE challenged the deal in court last year, citing possible price increase and less innovation that might harm Brazils oil and gas industry.

Australia`s competition watchdog raised concerns in October last year. They said the merger might shrink the number of suppliers for oilfield goods and services, particularly offshore drilling. They said the proposed acquisition «may create conditions that would facilitate coordinated behavior» in the oil-services market.

Schlumbers are the global leader, while the two U.S companies in the planned merger are number 2 and 3 providers of equipment for oil and gas exploration and production required approval internationally.

EU`s Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager said Monday, such services are crucial to «ensuring competitive energy prices for consumers and companies across the EU.»

«Today`s outcome is disappointing because of our strong belief in the vast potential of the business combination to deliver benefits for shareholders, customers and both companies’ employees,» said Martin Craighead, Chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes.

In connection with the termination of the merger agreement, Halliburton will pay Baker Hughes the termination fee of $3,5 billion by Wednesday, May 4, 2016.

Halliburton will discuss the termination of the merger agreement during its previously scheduled conference call on Tuesday, May 3, 2016, at 8:00 AM Central Time (9:00 AM Eastern Time).

skjold5

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Amazon are fighting with Netflix and YouTube

Amazon continue to rise up and the average 12-month price target is about $750, which means the company has the potential to jump another 20%. Not a surprise for bullish investors were about 90% is bullish on that stock.

The e-commerce giant will post first quarter earnings on Thursday 28 April after market close, and it`s expected to post EPS of $0,64 on $28 billion in revenue which is three cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and around $60 million higher on top.

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Since the start of the quarter, estimates have fallen 6% for EPS but increased 2% for revenue. Despite the decline estimates, profits are anticipated to increase and so are revenue. Amazon have been posting losses, ut is coming off three straight quarters of profitability.

Amazon Prime and the dominance of Amazon Web Services (AWS) is expected to carry the retailer this year. They have doubled it membership in Amazon Prime for the past two years, and that is up 54 million, and almost half of all adults in the U.S have Prime subscriptions.

AWS is the leading in the cloud infrastructure industry, representing about 30% of the market, and large enterprises such as Netflix have migrated to AWS to be its platform provider which validates their credibility and reliability.

A study showed that Amazon had a better catalogue of Prime Video movies on TV shows compared to Netflix. According to Barclays, Netflix`s overall catalog has experienced a slide of up to 28% over the past year.

Mark Fahey revealed that Amazon offered a better deal in terms of amount and quality of video streaming compare to Netflix. Additionally, it had more titles with high ratings from users, and quality is of more importance than quantity.

Having a platform with a great library is not enough while quality that is offering constantly refreshed content will be vital in the future. it`s a shift from licensing non-exclusive content to original series and movies that one can get anywhere else.

Netflix has a budget of $5 billion on content in 2016 and that number will rise to about $6 billion in 2017. That doesn`t mean the entertainment value will increase. While Amazon and Netflix are fighting we can see a third player in this game, and that is YouTube with its amazing content.

Amazon has expanded its web services in five new regions this year, including China, India, and the U.K. Heavy investments in global expansion on top of Google and Microsofts ascension in cloud computing will put pressure on Amazons margins.

Expected growth in cloud computing and IoT should make a great outlook for Amazon as they continue to expand their web services.

 

skjold5

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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