Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Federal Reserve

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asphalt

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Olympic Games starts in Brazil while the GDP is declining

The Olympic Games starts today and will last until 21 August 2016, and the host is Rio de Janeiro. A beautiful place on earth, but if you ask some people there, they have another view. They are against it.

Hundreds of demonstrators demonstrated earlier on Friday, and blocked roads in Copacabana. They protested against the government and the cost of hosting the event. Nothing has obviously changed since last time I wrote about Brazil during the World Cup in 2014.

 

ol2016

People were angry at that time and so is it now. They feel angry because they belive the Brazilian government should spend money on other things than World Cup and now Olympic Games. Brazil still have serious problems with crime.

Brazil still has above-average levels of violent crime and particularly high levels of gun violence and homicide. WHO estimated the number of 32 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, which is one of the highest rates of international homicide of the world.

There are differences between the crime rates in the Brazilian states. While in Sao Paulo the homicide rate registered in 2013 was 10,8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, in Alagoas it was 64,7 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.

Brazil also has high level of incarceration and the third largest prison population in the world (behind only China and the United States), with an estimated total of approximately 700,000 prisoners around the country (June 2014), an increase of about 300% compared to the index registered in 1992.

Brazil is the largest country in both South America and Latin America. As the world`s fifth-largest country by both area and population, it is the largest country to have Portuguese.

Brazil was inhabited by numerous tribal nations prior to the landing on 1500 of explorer Pedro Alvares Cabral, who claimed the area for the Portuguese Empire. Brazil remained a Portuguese colony until 1808, when the capital of the empire was transferred from Lisbon to Rio de Janeiro.

In 1815, the colony was elevated to the rank of kingdom upon the formation of the United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves. Independence was achieved in 1822 with the creation of the Empire of Brazil, a unitary state governed under a constitutional monarchy and a parliamentary system.

The ratification of the first constitution in 1824 led to the formation of a bicameral legislature, now called the National Congress. The country became a presidential republic in 1889 following a military coup dètat.

An authoritarian military junta came to power in 1964 and ruled until 1985, after which civilian governance resumed. Brazil`s current constitution, formulated in 1988, defines it as a democratic federal republic.

The federation is composed of the union of the Federal District, the 26 states, and the 5,570 municipalities.

(PPP) as of 2015. A member of the BRICS group, Brazil until 2010 had one of the world`s fastest growing economies, with its economic reforms giving the country new international recognition and influence.

Brazils national development bank plays an important role for the countrys economic growth.

The country has been the largest producer of coffee for the last 150 years.

 

 

 

GDP-Brazil

 

 

Now, things have turned upside down, and it has been a sharp and quick drop for the Brazilian economy and for Ms Dilma Rousseff. Brazil`s economic woes started in 2011, when China began to decelerate and Brazilian commodities began losing value.

Brazil`s GDP YoY is -5,40%, and their Interest rate is 14,25% with a jobless rate of 11,30%.

There is something strange here.

Argentina and Venezuela is not far away from Brazil, and if we scrutinize the numbers we can see that they have something in common. The Interest rate and Inflation rate is very high.

In Brazil, the Interest rate is 14,25%, but in Venezuela, the Interest rate is 21,36%. In Argentina; 30,25%. Not only that. Take a look at the Inflation rate; in Argentina it is 40,50%, but in Venezuela it is 180,90%. Can you belive that? The Inflation rate in Venezuela is 180,90%! Wow.

Its not so bad for the growth in Argentina, but Venezuela is in same boat as Brazil when it comes to growth. GDP in Brazil is -5,40% and in Venezuela it is -7,10%. Argentinas GDP YoY is 0,49%. Not much, but they`re on the right side.

By comparison; Chinas GDP is 6,70%, and Indias GDP is 7,90%.

It went wrong for both Brazil and Venezuela, but this can also happen in your country. Remember that.

 

asphalt

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Banks & Guns

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by | July 15, 2016 · 10:56 pm

Portugal and France will compete in the UEFA EURO 2016 final on Sunday

Portugal and France will compete in the UEFA EURO 2016 final in Saint Denis on Sunday. Host France beat world champions Germany to reach UEFA EURO 2016 final, and they will have the chance to emulate their 1984 European champions after two assured Anoine Griezmann finishes earned a semi-final win in Marseille and ended Germany`s hopes of adding the European crown to the world title they lifted two years ago.

 

france-final

 

asphalt

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Will Britain leave the European Union today?

 

Finally the day is here, June 23, 2016. The day all traders have talked about in months. The day when Britons go to the polls to decide whether to leave or remain in the European Union. Traders have talked about it because a Brexit will move the markets.

I don`t trust the polls because they are never perfect. In this case, we have seen remain in the EU to win against leave the EU camp. Until now. The wind changed, and Leave the EU camp went straight up last month.

 

Latest Brexit polls odds - UK EU referendum

 

Now, only hours before the Britain’s are finish to vote,  remain in the EU camp have been fighting back and lead with only 2%. So, who can change the game? About 10% doesn`t know what to do, which means they will make up their mind in the last hour.

The polls indicate the vote result is too close to call.

Traders I have talked  with expect Britain to remain, but if we wake up to a Brexit tomorrow I think the volatility will increase. Not only that. We will also see economic and political turmoil. The value of the British pound will plunge and BOE will touch the interest rate.

The British pound have already moved before the referendum, and the British pound had its strongest surge since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Its up 3% against many other major peers in one single week.

I think the British pound are skyrocketing because the traders belive Britain will remain in EU.

The Euro have consolidated since June 2014, when ECB President Mario Draghi introduced negative interest rates. The Euro have since then moved up and down of about $1,05 to $1,15. Right after Draghi introduced the bad news, the Euro dropped 20%. According to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Euro is 17 percent undervalued.

The leader of the leave the EU campaign, Former London Mayor Boris Johnson, told Sky News “This is our last chance to take back control and it`s worth fighting for, he said.

The voting booths opened at 7 a.m on Thursday, and a record 46,5 million Britons registered to cast ballots.

 

BRIT

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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