Finally the day is here, June 23, 2016. The day all traders have talked about in months. The day when Britons go to the polls to decide whether to leave or remain in the European Union. Traders have talked about it because a Brexit will move the markets.
I don`t trust the polls because they are never perfect. In this case, we have seen remain in the EU to win against leave the EU camp. Until now. The wind changed, and Leave the EU camp went straight up last month.
Now, only hours before the Britain’s are finish to vote, remain in the EU camp have been fighting back and lead with only 2%. So, who can change the game? About 10% doesn`t know what to do, which means they will make up their mind in the last hour.
The polls indicate the vote result is too close to call.
Traders I have talked with expect Britain to remain, but if we wake up to a Brexit tomorrow I think the volatility will increase. Not only that. We will also see economic and political turmoil. The value of the British pound will plunge and BOE will touch the interest rate.
The British pound have already moved before the referendum, and the British pound had its strongest surge since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Its up 3% against many other major peers in one single week.
I think the British pound are skyrocketing because the traders belive Britain will remain in EU.
The Euro have consolidated since June 2014, when ECB President Mario Draghi introduced negative interest rates. The Euro have since then moved up and down of about $1,05 to $1,15. Right after Draghi introduced the bad news, the Euro dropped 20%. According to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Euro is 17 percent undervalued.
The leader of the leave the EU campaign, Former London Mayor Boris Johnson, told Sky News “This is our last chance to take back control and it`s worth fighting for, he said.
The voting booths opened at 7 a.m on Thursday, and a record 46,5 million Britons registered to cast ballots.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Ket Garden
Shiny bull 