Category Archives: Stocks

Apple`s profit and margins slid

Last year, Apple`s earning rose 61% in september 2012, but fell this year for the first time in at least a decade. On a conference call yesterday Mr. Tim Cook said that fourth-quarter profits slipped roughly 8.5%. Earnings: 7,5 billion in Q3, per diluted share, 2013 (8,2 billion in Q3 2012). EPS:$8,26 in Q3, 2013 ($8,67 in Q3, 2012). Revenue is $37,5 billion. Gross margin came in at 37 percent compared to 40 percent in the year-ago quarter.

Right after the results was released, the stock fell as much as 5,1%. After the closing bell, Apple was trading at $529,88. It is down about 25% since the top in September 2012 following the debut of the Iphone 5. Apple is not a growth company anymore. I hope the holiday season can change that.

Apple sold 33.8 million iPhones, (record for the September quarter), compared to 26.9 million in the year-ago quarter. They sold 14.1 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 14 million in the year-ago quarter. Mac sales came in at 4.6 million, down slight from 4.9 million in the year-ago quarter.

Mr. Tim Cook reported its best quarter in education ever, generating over $1 billion in revenue on sales of iOS and Mac products, including iPads, which took a staggering 94 percent tablet marketshare in schools.

Apple have a huge competition from Samsung, Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Lower-priced products from Samsung are taking marketshares along with the other mentioned companies above. Q4 is a very important season for Apple, and Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook is planning to sell new IPhones and Ipads at the end of this year.

Apple have spent a lot of time in their inovation this summer, and they are exploring new product categories with “significant opportunities,” Tim Cook said on a conerence call today. They will release a new iPad Air on Nov. 1. Later on, they will follow up with their new iPad mini with a high-definition screen.

Apple is happy to go into the holidays with their new products like iPhone 5c, iPhone 5s, iOS 7, the new iPad mini with Retina Display and the icredibly thin and light iPad Air, new MacBook Pros, the radical new Mac Pro, OS X Mavericks and the next generation iWork and iLife apps for OS X and iOS. The new iPhone will be available in 100 countries by the end of the year.

Not only the competitors are pressing Apple on margins. The shareholders are giving them some pressure too. Investor Carl Icahn (The one I wrote about, selling 50% of his shares in Netflix) has publicly said he want Apple to initiate a $150 billion buyback to boost the company`s stock price.

Apple paid out $36 billion in dividends and buybacks in the past 5 quarter, and are now discussing what to do with their cash. News on that case will follow early in 2014. Apple`s cash dividend will be $3,05 per share of the common stock, and is payable on November 14, 2013, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 11, 2013.

Market participants will continue to look at the earnings this week, as well as the FOMC meeting that will be released on Wednesday. News today: Core Retail Sales/Retail Sales & PPI at 8:30am, CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00am.

too-green-130910

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Risk and reward

The U.S market fell yesterday and it was all red. Today the Asian market i up. Nikkei is up from a two week low. Gold is trading at $1334,50. Netflix is down -15% from it`s all time high. Are you willing to buy stocks in Netflix now? Or blue chips? What about risky small-cap stocks? Bonds?

Investing carries a certain amount of risk, but how much risk are you willing to take? What are you willing to pay for a stock? How much can you afford to lose? You have to look for risk and reward.

When you invest, you can get some pain, but you can also get some gain. That`s why you have to weigh the reward against the risk when you are investing. Understanding risk and reward is the key in investing in stocks and other financial papers.

You have all heard the words: “the higher the risk, the higher the potential return”. It`s very important to understand you own comfort level when you are investing. Then you will clearly understand the relationship between risk and reward.

Bank certificates of deposit (CDs) with a fedrally insured bank are also very secure. But the price for this safety is a very very low return on you investment. You can end up earning nothing when you calculate taxes on your gain and inflation.

To invest you need to think about the amount you are willing to put into the market. Before you invest, you must decide when you are willing to sell. How much rate of return or growth do you accept? And don`t forget fees, inflation and tax and the value of the dollar.

All those thing goes in different directions. That`s why many investors like to put different eggs in different baskets. Investors are diversifying their portfolios, and invest in different papers with various degree of risk. The goal is to take profit from a rising market, and to protect themself against dramatic losses in a down market.

New today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9:00am, New Home Sales at 10:00am.

risky.behavior

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The biggest gainer in S&P 500 in 2013!

Netflix exceeded most of the expectations yesterday with their business model for streaming tv and film service. In the third quarter, they added 1,3 million streaming subscribers in the U.S and that is the highest ever.

It`s funny to think about. Ten years ago, Netflix delivered the films only through DVD`s mailed to the customers, which made them the highest-performing stock on Nasdaq. Now the business model is totally different and more profitable.

Netflix is big in the U.S, but are growing outside of the country. They have a new agreement with Virgin and so far they have added 1,4 million subscribers for a total of 9,2 million. Investors are impressed and sent the stock up to $390 in after-hours trading. That`s 10%.

History tells us that this can be a very volatile stock. In 2003 Netflix was the highest performing stock on Nasdaq. They had solid results compounded by momentum. Now, they say it feels like 2003 euforia.

Despite the huge swings in the stock price since 2002 IPO ($8 down to $3 to $39 to $300 to $55 to $330) they continued to grow the membership every year fairly steadily. What they have made over the last 10 years is stunning. Netflix say they want to make the next 10 years remarkable. Earnings-per-share is 52 cents and the net income for the quarter reached $32 million and that is up from $8 million in 2012.

Investors paid close attentions to the number of subscribers because they have predicted that they could have 60 million to 90 million members in the U.S, and even more overseas. Yesterday, Mr. Reed Hastings (CEO), who frequently singles out HBO as the main competitor, hinted at a specific number it`s aiming for.

They have a long way to go to match HBO`s 114 million global member count. Mr. Hastings also talked about Netflix`s tv show like «House of Cards,» and the new and bigger hit «Orange is the New Black.» Mr. Reed Hasings (CEO) says that «Orange» will end the year as Netflix`s most-watched original series ever. The typical Netflix subscriber still spends a lot of time streaming repeats of TV shows.

More than 25% of the companies on S&P 500 are comming with their earnings report this week. Yesterday, I was looking for the earning from Netflix. The stock have soared this year and few investors expect the stock to pull back following its results on monday.

People want to see films. Watch movies and TV shows. They don`t want to spend money on burgers. McDonald’s fell 0,8% to $94,42. They warned global October sales could be flat. Apple rose 2,5% to a shareprice of $521,83 and was the largest winner on Nasdaq.

Guidance for Apple numbers from September 23 told us that it is sold over nine million iPhone 5cs and 5s`s in their first three days (SEC 8-K filing). Apple`s guidance results in EPS is between $7,23 and $8,09 for september quarter.

It is expected to see a revenue of $37,5 billions. Up 4,3%, which is above the guidence of $37 billion. Iphone should be over 50% of revenue and 65% of profits. I think the future is in the hi tech now. The tablet sale is just in the beginning of a new era. I look forward to Apple`s earnings report.

News today: Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate at 8:30am.

Reed Hastings

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Google up 8,18%

Wow! Google is up 8,18% on after-hours trading to $961,48 on Q3 earnings. What a marketing company!!! Yesterday, the Google`s CEO Larry Page, CFO Patrick Pichette and Chief business officer Nikesh Arora were on the conference call to report it`s Q3 earnings. Take a look at the chart below. You know what stock you should buy in 2005?

Google

Google`s gross revenue is up 12% to $14,98. Google are still growing, and their net income was $2,97 billion ($2,18 billion in Q3 last year). In 2012, their EPS (earnings per share) was $8,87, but now it is $10,74. Google beats the analysts expectations. The stock is trading at $961,48 in after-hours trading. Wow!

Belive it or not, but the big business is comming from paid clicks, which is clicks related to ads served on Googles site. At the same time the cost per click goes down. More and more people are clicking on the ads that Google serves.

Google income

Google, Facebook and Yahoo`s big challenge now is the consumers shift from PC to mobile phones/smartphones and tablets were the advertising rates are lower. The price marketers pay Google decreased by 8%, but the total amount of paid click rose 26% and that is the highest rate of growth on one year.

Yahoo by the way, are reporting an decrease in the revenue in Q3, and are lowering it`s financial outlook. Motorola lost $248 million in Q3. But what stock should you buy 12 months ago? It`s Yahoo. That stock is up about 100% in 12 months. That`s pretty good!

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Bullish Bullish Bullish

It`s optimism in Asia, and all the indices are up. All this of course because of the good news we all got from the Capitol Hill yesterday. They came to an agreement only two hours before the deadline, and now the can rise the limit and borrow more money.

The shutdown is also over and one million people can get back to work again. The agreement is only for a short periode of time. Desember 13 is the next date for a new agreement. That is for an agreement in a long run.

Stocks went up in the US after the good news and gold is up too. VIX is down 21,17%. Many hedgefunds have lost a lot of money yesterday. Right now gold is trading at $1306,10. So, what am I suppose to do now, you said? Well, as I have told you before, in the US, the P/E (price/earnings) is 20, which means Europe is a better bet, because P/E in Europe is 10.

Where do you find the bullish stocks, and when are you getting in, and when are you getting out. Many have asked me about that, and this is the point where many are struggling. Let`s look at the chart for Microsoft and Apple.

Msft and Aapl

If you bought those two stocks in the 80`s, you would have a huge gain today. But who is sitting on their stocks for 30 years? If you bought Microsoft in 2000, you would have lost your money today. If you bought Apple 10 years ago you would have a huge gain today. When to go in and out of a stock is sometimes difficult.

Many investors tend to remember the losing trades much better than the winning trades. It`s all about feelings when it comes to invest money. If you lose money you can get so nervous that it will be impossible to make good decisions again. The mere thought of losing money blocks the opportunity you have in the market.

Controlling emotions is very important when you are investing money in the market, because emotions can play havoc with your investing. That`s why you need to have a plan that makes you prepared no matter what happens in the market.

Emotional investors usually do wrong decisions and there is many of them. If you are one of them, it doesn`t mean you can be a successful investor. It simply means you have to acknowledge your concerns.

First of all you need a plan. Before you buy stocks you need to have a selling plan. You have to decide at what point you want to sell the stock. Stocks goes up and down, and you need to consider how low you think the stock might fall. Professional investors do always set a “stop loss”.

How much money can you affort to lose? 10%? 20? More? You must find your exit strategy. With a plan in your hand you can take away your emotions, and better understand when to avoid holding the stock too long or when to selling the stock to early.

You do not want to lose money. Nobody does that. If you want to buy and hold, and sit on the stock for a long time, you don`t want to exit out prematurely, but you do not want to see a great gain disappear either if a stock begins a sustained downward plunge.

The pros often use trailing stops and stop loss orders. These strategy will help you to protect your investments against losses. These strategies will not give you a guarantee to profit or protect you against an absolute losses, but it will help you to control your emotions to make betters decisions, which means better investments over time, so stick to your plan.

A Price to book ratio (P/B ratio) is used to compare a stock`s market value to its book value. It is calculated by dividing the current slosing price of the stock by the latest quarter`s book value per share, also known as the «price-equity ratio».

A stock is undervalued if the P/B is very low. But it can also be a warning that it is something wrong with the company. This ratio also gives you an idea of whether you`re paying too much for what would be left if the company is bankrupt tomorrow.

If you look at all the companies and shares in S&P 500, you will also find a P/B for that index. A very useful technique that tells you how cheap or expensive the stocks are right now. Take a look at the chart I have added today. This chart will give you a picture of the situation a the moment.

PB value

Current S&P 500 Price to Book Value: 2,53 +0,03 (1,38%)

Wed Oct 16

Mean: 2.75
Median: 2.73
Min: 1.78 (Mar 2009)
Max: 5.06 (Mar 2000)

Current price to book ratio is estimated based on current market price and S&P 500 book value as of June 2013 — the latest reported by S&P.

News for today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00am.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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