Category Archives: Stocks

Dividend Yield

Some investors are looking for technology stocks with high growth. You can look for them in stock screens and search for dividend paying characteristics. If you are looking for dividend income and act like a value investor, then you can look for Dividend Yield.

This Dividend Yield number tells you what percentage return for example Coca Cola pays out to shareholders. Older companies like Coca Cola will normally pay out higher percentage than younger companies like for example Twitter.

You calculate like this:

Dividend Yield = annual dividend per share / stock’s price per share

Let`s say a stock trades at $100, and the dividend Yield is 3%. Annual dividend is $3.

($3/$100 = 0,03).

To be in the market and invest money in different markets is like a college class that never ends. As an investor you need to monitor existing stocks and always be on the look for new and great opportunities.

Now it is a good time to check your stock portfolio before the year ends. I will write about that later. News today: ADP non-farm employment change, and trade balance at 8:15am, ISM Non-Manufactoring PMI, and New home sales at 10.00am, Crude Oil inventories at 10.30am.

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Price to book ratio (P/B)

Now and then I write about some stock tools, and today I will write about price to book ratio (P/B). Let`s say a stock price for company A is $10 (1 million shares). This is called the market value. Market is often investors, analysts and newspapers. But this is often not the value of the business according to its “books” or financial value.

The companies book value is calculated from the balance sheet, and it is the difference between a company’s total assets and total liabilities. This is what we call the shareholders equity. Let`s say company A has total assets of $50 million, and total liabilities is $30 million. Then the value of the company is $20 million.

If Company A sold the assets and paid the liabilities, the equity value, or the net worth of the business would be $20 million. If the stock price was trading at $10 (and they have 1 million shares), then you know that the company is undervalued. This is how it is so important to look at the P/B compared to the equity price.

Definition of price to book ratio: P/B is used to compare a stocks market value to its book value.

Value investors are searching for stocks that the market has passed by. What they are looking for is really HOT stocks. They simply look for companies that no one are paying much attention to at the beginning and that is often called penny stocks. Is is a strategy to hold the stocks for years until one day the market discovers the stocks on their screen and start to buy.

At this stage, value investors are looking for other indicators than earnings growth. What they are looking for is Price to book ratio (P/B). This measurement simply tells us the value the market places on the book value of the company.

A low P/B can indicate that the stock is undervalued, but it could also mean that it is something terribly wrong. Be aware that this ratio (like other ratios) varies from industry to industry. In addition; it tells you whether you are paying too much for what`s left in the company if it went bankrupt tomorrow.

Calculate like this:

P/B = Share Price / Book Value Per Share

The lower the P/B, the better the value. It is better to identify potential companies this way.

News today (all times are Eastern Times):

Core Durable Goods & Unemployment Claims at 8:30am,

Chicago PMI & Revised Consumer Confidence at 9:55am,

Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Price to sales ratio (P/S)

When you evaluate companies, you have many tools to use. You can do the research by looking at the numbers in companies that have made money in the past. The tools I have been written about earlier is very useful.

But what if a company don`t have any earnings? Is it a bad investment? Not necessarily, but you should be very careful with companies with no income history.

The tech bubble is a good example. Many companies didn`t have earnings history and some of them didn`t have products either. That was the 90`s. Fortunately. However, sometimes you find a great company that is worthy of consideration. Therefore, you need to measure the young companies without the earnings.

You can calculate like this:

P/S = Market Cap / Revenues
or
P/S = Stock Price / Sales Price Per Share

Price to Sales (P/S) ratio is a tool you can use and the lower the P/S the better the investment is because you are paying less for each unit of sales. However, sales do not reflect the whole picture as the company may be unprofitabel with a low P/S ratio. This ratio is usually used only for unprofitable companies. That is because they don`t have a price-earnings ratio (P/E).

Like the other tools I have been writing about, you shouldn`t use only one of them to determine your investments. Especially, when you are dealing with young companies, you will have a lot of questions to answer and the P/S ratio is only one of them. Remember; Microsoft was without earnings at the beginning of their carreer.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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To taper or not to taper

The FED`s FOMC minutes, said yesterday that they could see the Fed tapering its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program at one of the next few meetings the coming months. In addition, the committee members also saw the U.S. economy growing at a moderate pace.

This is not something new to us. They have earlier said that they want to see the unemployment rate below 6,5% and a better growth with a stabile inflation before they start to taper. Therefore, the U.S employment report in early December will be on traders and investors watch list now.

Once they came out with the news yesterday, the dollar index shot to its daily high, which is a bearish signal for the precious metals traders. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply. Where are the gold headed now?

From 1976 into the peak in 1980, gold rallied from $101,50 to $873 an ounce. A big bullish trend for the gold that time. Fear and greed are reflecting this chart, while people trade on emotions.

The gold indes peaked out and the market backed off and settled into a sideway trend from about 1982 to 1996. Then it started a sideways trend from around $281 to $514. A loooooong sideways trend for a loooong periode of time.

It went sideways in the 90`s and people considered the market to be «dead». But then the market changed in 2001 – 2002. It started a new trend that peaked out in September 2011, trading at $1900.

The chart is now very similar to the chart back in the early 80`s. If this is the future for gold, we are likely to see a sideways trend now.

But many people expect a big drop now because the market seems to be overbought. If that happend, we will se a change for the gold price. Probably a big jump. News today: PPI & Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Price-to-earnings growth (PEG)

PEG ratio is used to determine the value of the stock while you look at the company’s earnings growth. This gives you a better picture and overview than P/E ratio. Take a look at LinkedIn. Price-to-earnings is just below 1000 now.

A high P/E like that may look like a good buy, but factoring in the company`s growth rate to get the stock`s PEG may tell you another story. A company with a lower PEG ratio may be undervalued given its earnings performance.

The PEG ratio tells you whether the stock is over or underpriced and that varies by industry and what kind of business it is. The accuracy of the numbers in the PEG depends on all the inputs used. If you use historical growth rates, you may provide an inaccurate PEG ratio because the future growth can deviate from historical growth rates. Some use the terms “forward PEG” and some use the terms “trailing PEG” to distinguish between the calculation methods using future growth and historical growth.

The most popular way to compare two different stocks are to look at the P/E. You simply calculate it by taking the current price of the stock and divide it by the EPS. It tells you whether the stock is high or low relative to its earnings.

A stock with a high P/E is often considered as overpriced and that is probably right. It signals that the traders have pushed the stock price too high and above any reasonable near term growth that is probable.

However, a high P/E can also signal a strong vote of confidence that the company still has strong growth prospects in the future. This tells us that the stock price can go even higher.

Investors are usually more concerned about the future than the present. That`s why it is better to look at future earnings growth or the PEG ratio. You calculate the PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the projected growth in earnings.

PEG = P/E ratio / (projected growth in earnings)

For example:

P/E in Company A is 100, and projected earnings growth next year is 20%. PEG in this case is 5 (100 / 20 = 5). Like all other ratios, the number five in this case is just a number you can compare in relationship to others. The lower the number, the less you pay for each unit of future earnings growth. A company with a high P/E and a high projected earnings growth may be a good value.

A company that is not growing any more with a P/E of 10, and a low or no projected earnings growth, gives you a PEG like the P/E. This can tell you that the investment in here is very expensive.

Take a look at the chart below. I have compared Sony with Starbucks. People are not buying vinyl records or cd`s anymore. What do they buy? They simply buy coffee! Sony traded at $120 in year 2000, and now the stock is just below $20. By the way, do you know what company that is selling most cd`s in this world right now? Belive it or not; it is Starbucks!

SNE and SBUX

News today:

Core CPI & Retail Sales at 8:30am,

Existing Home Sales & Business Inventories at 10:00am,

Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am,

Fed Meeting Minutes at 2:00pm.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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