Category Archives: Stock market

by | October 15, 2014 · 4:51 pm

Earnings focus

Investors are waiting for earnings this week and today big earnings announcements are coming from Bank of America, BlackRock, American Express, eBay and Netflix. They will all report after the close later today.

What`s happening in the market is a change. Investors move from one sector to another. Investors are not buying everything like last year any more. Take a look at Best Buy. Tripled in 2013, but plunged over 40% at the beginning of 2014. The stock in down 62% from the top, and struggle to bounce back. Stay away from stocks like that.

I see a new bull market starting right now. That`s why it is very important to jump in now, because it will probably be too late at the end of the year.

Jump out of stock without rock-solid fundamentals and buy high-quality stocks with solid fundamentals. Like that, the money will just rotate. The new bull stocks will not be hammered as hard as the crock stocks. They will rather take off right now.

Money will always be on the move and will always flow towards its best and safest returns. Take a look at the dollar. It`s going straight up. At the same time, the fear have doubled. Other quality blue-chip stocks will report later this week. Stocks are plummeting today. Is it emotions or fundamentals?

I`m very excited about the rest of the year and the beginning of 2015. New bull markets starts right now.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 14, 2014 · 2:49 pm

Airlines hammered

Many investors are scared right now as it is time for Halloween soon, but Halloween is not the reason. It`s something worse; the stock market.  S&P 500 and Nasdaq had their worst weeks since May 2012, but I don`t think it is a big surprise for someone in the market as this is highly expected.

AA

Russel 2000 is in a correction territory and DJIA has dropped down about 200 points in four days in a row, and that has not happened in years. Last time we saw volatility like this was in 2011. Equities are a scary thing for investors right now, and that is not because of the coming Halloween.

S&P 500 ended at around the 200 MA and that will be a very important level to watch for in the coming days/weeks. SPX declined 3,1% last week and are now trading 5,6% below its peak of 2019,26 a month ago.

Many sectors are starting to be oversold and this is a good opportunity for many to pick up stocks. Take a look at the oil price, which is declining every day now, trading below $90. The surplus for many in this oil sector is good, so they don`t complain with a price below $90, despite an break-even at $92.

Other sectors will benefit from the declining oil price. American Airlines will benefit from reduced fuel costs and the stock looks cheap. Fuel is the largest expense line for American Airlines and a decline in oil prices will have a huge impact to their bottom line.

On December last year, AMR Corp merged with U.S Airways. They are now the world`s largest airline; American Airlines Group (AAL). The shares doubled since they merged, but the stock have had a pullback which makes it interesting for investors as the fuel cost are making it more profitable.

AAL has delivered great results, have good cash flow levels and their revenue are increasing. They have high-capacity and a strong pricing power, and are expanding its network to China. Those routes is one of the most profitable routes worldwide and they will start to compete with Chinese airlines.

With around $10 billion in cash and possible buyback program, the earnings per share will increase to new highs. The forecast for earnings is $5,21 per share, and with a buyback program, this stock looks undervalued, and EPS would strengthen.

The stock slid -7,15% yesterday and looks cheaper and cheaper every day. Another airline stock to decline was United Continental Airlines (UAL), down 7,29% yesterday. The market trend indicator gave us a bearish reading on stocks and that`s for the first time in some time. If we fall below 1,800 on the S&P 500, the war will be over and the bears are the winners. What  investors are doing now, is jumping from one sector to another.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 13, 2014 · 3:59 pm

Rock`n Roll in the stock market. Fundamentals or Emotions?

Are stock markets falling because of the fundamentals or investors emotions? The one that is first to sell stocks is the small investors. You can see that if you look at the small cap index like Russel 2000. They started the downturn long time before S&P, Dow and Nasdaq.

SPX 13 October 2014

(Picture: S&P 500 Index)

The big ones are selling later, if they are selling at all? Big investors like Buffet and Icahn are holding their positions and pick up the stocks when it drops down. So are the big hedgefunds. This is simply because they have money, time and look at the fundamentals.

Apple Inc is now trading at around $100, and Icahn said last week that the stock is worth about $200. Of course he is not selling stocks. As an activist investor, Icahn have written a letter to Apple`s CEO Tim Cook.

Icahn told him to go for buybacks. Apple will launch their new Apple Pay in a few days, and that`s probably why Icahn is so positive on that stock right now. The big player will win, and the small one with bad nerves will lose, because the small one don`t know when to jump in again.

I think that many investors don`t understand the Apple hype, but I will not be surprised it Apple beats the 51,03M bar Apple have set for itself this year. The holiday season will take the level higher.

The Dow suffered last week and Nasdaq were particularly hard hit, down 2,33% on friday. The fear Index tells us that investors are terrified at the moment. Investors didn`t like the new data from Germany and Japan, and don`t know what to do about Fed`s plans to end its stimulus and their low-interest rate policies. This is why the market is volatile right now.

Big players are looking at the fundamentals. I think they will look for the biggest companies in the U.S, and third quarter earnings reports will come from Netflix and eBay on Wednesday. Google will come with their report on thursday. In addition; Chrysler will make its debut on the New York Stock Exchange.

It is when the big players start to sell that the stock market crash, and they are not selling right now. They are waiting. Swiss adviser Marc Faber has talked about a crash for over a year now. He says that we are in a gigantic financial asset bubble. Anyway; your strategy shouldn`t be to buy on top and sell at the bottom, so be cautious.

Right now, it`s all in a green territory in Europe. Buffet is buying stocks this week, and JP Morgan is bullish and say they don`t expect the market to drop down 10%. Trade what you see, not what you think. The market is volatile and will continue to be so for a while.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 25, 2014 · 2:20 pm

What`s next in the stock market?

Take a look at the Silver. Now trading at $17,50! Down another 1,17% only today! Gold is also in a red territory, trading at $1,210,80. Down -0,71% so far today. Copper is trading at $303,95, while Crude Oil (Brent) is trading at 97,20.

This is not what many investors expected. Many was bullish on gold and are still buying with both hands, but the precious metals is declining every day. Yesterday, we saw good economic data. Housing prices are up in the best market in 22 years. What will happen next in the market. Please be sceptical about everything I say, but as an investor I need to predict the market.

SPX Sept 14

Here are some thoughts: The U.S economy can continue to grow with inflation subdued and the interest rates will probably increase next year, but in a gradual pace. Stocks will probably be supported by higher earnings instead of higher valuations. If so, the S&P 500 will continue to go up to about 2,250 next year.

But what if the stock market goes up like I mentioned above and the valuations melt up in the prices of the stocks when the growth remain the same, and at the same time, the dollar keeps going up and remain strong? Then a lot of capital will flow into the U.S market again. Fed will slow down its pace of monetary normalization, and companies support higher stock prices with more share buybacks.

Maybe this is the end? This is the top, and it stops right here. It is the end of the bull market. It is a slowdown in Japan and in Europe and China has a housing bubble that will burst, and all this will stop the whole global economy.

It`s many outcomes, and that`s why it is important to trade what you see, not what you belive. Expect the unexpected, because you`ll never know what`s gonna happen out there, but when it happens, it happens fast.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 8, 2014 · 3:06 pm

Market update

The bullish sentiment is extreme at the moment. Take a look at S&P 500, which is above 2,000, trading at 2,007,71. Up +0,50%. Nasdaq is up +0,45%, trading at 4,582,90. DJIA is up +0,40%, trading at 17,137,36.

nasdaq logo

Europe is in a red territory today. Dax is down -0,17%, trading at 9,730,38. CAC 40 is down -0,38%, trading at 4,469,61. FTSE 100 is down -0,97%, trading at 6,788,70, and Stoxx 50 is down -0,46%, trading at 3,260,30.

Many are bullish on gold, but keep in mind that gold is still in a bearish territory, despite the higher lows in the chart since the end of last year. I watch gold every day, and I`m looking for 1,250 – 1,270 area. In the same time, I`m looking for 1,000. It can drop down below 1,000 too.

Crude oil (brent) is trading at 100,25, down -0,57%. Silver is down below 20,00, trading at 19,23, but this precious metal is trading up today +0,39%. Another precious metal that is following silver is the copper, which is up 0,88%, trading at 319,75.

It`s interesting to watch the dollar right now. The U.S dollar index which hit another 13-month high overnight are making big moves. I follow the U.S dollar daily, because the dollar can threat the gold. Maybe the dollar is the safe heaven, and not the gold? That`s why it is important to follow those two combined.

One of the main reasons why the dollar is moving so fast now, is all the action in the EU. What happens in EU will affect the pair EUR/USD. I think that Mario Draghi will be very important for the daytraders in the future.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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