Category Archives: Politics

by | October 4, 2024 · 4:11 pm

Economists expected slower growth, but these numbers indicate that the U.S. economy continues to perform well

YouTubers are full of negativity. Recession is near! Be ready! This is scary! Sell your stocks! The economy is bad! Well, everything isn`t good, but the growth in the U.S. is still very good. Just take a look at the numbers.

More good news came out earlier today. The U.S. job market in October 2024 has shown surprising strength, with 254,000 new jobs added in September. Far exceeding expectations. This strong growth brings the unemployment rate down to 4.1% (which is relatively low historically), and hourly wages are growing at an annual rate of 4%.

Economists expected slower growth, but these numbers indicate that the U.S. economy continues to perform well, and there’s optimism about avoiding a recession. However, voter sentiment still lags, as many remain concerned about inflation and the broader economic outlook

Not only the U.S. stock market is going up. Take a look at the China Stock Market. The China Stock Market has gone down and sideways for about 18 months but took back that downturn within a couple of weeks. This is amazing.

The recent surge in China’s stock market over the past two weeks is likely driven by several factors, including improved investor sentiment, government stimulus measures, and better-than-expected economic data. China’s government has implemented policies to stabilize the property sector, cut interest rates, and support industries, encouraging domestic investment.

Additionally, optimism about easing geopolitical tensions and a potential economic rebound is fueling this upward momentum. However, concerns remain about long-term growth and regulatory uncertainties, which could influence future market performance.

But China is not alone. ECB is doing the same. BOJ is doing the same, and so is the FED among many others. New money is coming into the stock market, and the stock market continues to climb higher.

The massive printing of $21.17 trillion by the U.S. and other central banks, mainly in response to crises like the pandemic, significantly increased liquidity in the global financial system. This money printing was aimed at stimulating economies, propping up financial markets, and providing emergency relief. However, it also led to inflationary pressures as too much money chased too few goods.

The excess liquidity fueled asset bubbles raised debt levels and forced central banks to later tighten policies to combat the resultant inflation. Balancing liquidity while avoiding hyperinflation remains challenging.

The U.S. most recently engaged in significant money printing during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in 2020 and 2021, through measures such as the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing (QE) program.

As of July 2024, the M1 money supply (monthly supply) in the United States stood at approximately 18 trillion dollars, marking a significant decrease from the previous year. This decline followed a notable contraction in the M1 money supply during the latter half of 2022 and the first six months of 2023.

The Fed injected trillions of dollars into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities to maintain liquidity, lower interest rates, and stimulate growth. By mid-2021, the Fed had expanded its balance sheet by over $4 trillion. However, exact figures for ongoing or current printing efforts are often adjusted depending on economic conditions.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 26, 2024 · 6:06 am

Productivity isn`t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything

I want to follow up my article from yesterday. It`s about Germany which has a huge problem with GDP at -0,1. Aging population. Lack of innovation, investments, R&D, and growth. But Germany is not the only country with problems like that.

Many countries in the world have the same problems. But there is a great solution to this problem, and Paul Krugman wrote about it in his book, «The Age of Diminished Expectations.» He said; «Productivity isn`t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.»

Productivity is a foundation of prosperity, and the only way a country can raise its standard of living sustainably is to produce more with existing or fewer resources. You cannot do that without improving productivity. It`s that simple, Gita Bhatt wrote in an article at IMF.

We know that productivity must play a more important role in driving sustained growth as our societies age. But there`s no consensus on how to reverse the broad slowdown in productivity growth seen across almost all countries over the past 20 years.

Especially vexing is the sluggish growth of what economists call total factor productivity. A way of measuring how efficiently businesses turn capital and labor into output. The part that basically captures innovation and technology.

Slower gains in total factor productivity account for more than half the deceleration in economic growth since the global financial crisis, IMF-analysis shows. Another decade of weak productivity growth could seriously erode living standards and threaten financial and social stability.

Small companies can drive productivity gains, writes the University of Chicago`s Ufuk Akcigit. He shows how small firms are more innovative relative to their size, suggesting that they use R&D resources more efficiently.

As companies grow and dominate their markets, they often shift to protecting their market position, rather than fostering innovation, he said.

Policies matter too. Measures should encourage more effective reallocation of resources away from low-productivity firms and support smaller businesses and start-ups. Not just large incumbents. This could include targeted tax credits, grants for early-stage innovation, workforce retraining, and policies that encourage competition and reduce barriers to entry for new players.

Understanding productivity growth more fully is crucial because it plays such an outsize role in economic growth, which, as Daniel Susskind of King`s College London writes; also demands a renewed approach to help improve people`s lives.

Ultimately, as Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps writes; a productive society should allow people to enjoy «mass flourishing» from the grassroots up.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 25, 2024 · 10:50 am

Germany enjoyed the so-called «Wirtschaftswunder,» (economic miracle) but that has come to an end

For decades, Germany was synonymous with economic strength. Ever since World War II, it enjoyed the so-called «Wirtschaftswunder,» or economic miracle that followed the postwar recovery, which blessed Germany with almost four decades of high growth.

High growth thanks to German engineering, and manufacturing industries. The economic growth eventually slowed down, but Germany had established itself as the industrial heart of Europe, fueled by exports of products with large margins like cars machinery, and chemicals.

Companies like Volkswagen, BMW, Siemens, and BASF became global leaders with German products seen as pinnacles of quality and reliability. As a result of all that, people in Germany enjoyed high salaries, and high quality of life.

Their economic model was built on a few key pillars; strong manufacturing base. A highly skilled workforce, commitment to quality, and very strong exports. But this has come to an end. Last year, Germany was the only G-7 economy to shrink. It`s also the group`s slowest-growing economy with a growth to GDP at -0.1%.

It goes up and down. Down -0,5, up 0,1, down, 0,1, up 0,2, down -0,4, up 0,2, and then down again to -0,1.

Picture: Old economy vs New economies

Germany, long considered the economic engine of Europe, is currently facing significant challenges, leading to concerns that its economy may be stalling or «broken.» What in the world is happening in Germany, and what are the key factors that are affecting their economy right now?

It`s an energy crisis. Germany was dependent on Russian Gas. Germany relied heavily on Russian natural gas before the war in Ukraine. The subsequent sanctions and supply disruptions have led to a severe energy crisis, pushing up prices and harming energy-intensive industries like chemicals, manufacturing, and heavy machinery.

They also have a green transition challenge. Germany is trying to transition to renewable energy, but the shift away from nuclear and coal has left the country vulnerable during this energy crunch. This has increased costs for businesses and households, causing slower growth.

Germany`s economy is heavily reliant on exports, especially in industries like automotive and machinery. Global demand has softened, and supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic continue to affect production.

The German auto industry, in particular, has been slow to transition to electric vehicles compared to competitors like Tesla, and Chinese manufacturers. This lag is putting pressure on a key pillar of the country`s economy.

Germany`s economy narrowly avoided recession in early 2023, but growth remains sluggish. High inflation and low consumer spending have contributed to weak economic activity. The combination of rising wages, energy prices, and inflationary pressures has increased production costs, leading to reduced profitability for businesses.

On top of that, you have an aging population. Germany`s population is aging rapidly, and the working-age population is shrinking. This is leading to labor shortages in key sectors and higher social welfare costs, creating long-term economic challenges.

In addition; they have migration struggles. While the country has relied on immigration to fill gaps in the labor market, recent shifts in public sentiment and policy restrictions have made it harder to sustain this approach.

Their biggest companies have been there for about 100 years, but there is a shift in the market. Germany has been criticized for lagging behind in digitalization and innovation, particularly in fields like AI and tech start-ups. This is reducing its competitiveness in the global economy.

Another problem is Germany`s heavily regulated business environment and complex bureaucracy. This can stifle innovation and make it harder for new businesses to scale up.

Like many others, Germany has trade challenges and the global demand is weak. As the global economy faces uncertainty, especially with China`s slowing growth, demand for Germany`s exports has dropped.

Germany`s economic model has long been dependent on strong export markets, so this is a major issue!

At least; EU Tension. Economic divergence within the European Union, especially between northern, and southern European economies, adds another layer of complexity, affecting Germany`s trade relations within the bloc.

It all started in France. Yellow Vest protesters went to the streets for months and years and protested against higher oil prices, electricity bills, and expensive toll stations. Their standard of living was shrinking.

This happened at a time when Donald Trump was cutting taxes and made the best economy in the U.S. ever. People in France asked for a Trump-like figure, but everything has gone straight up since then, and now we see severe problems in Germany and other places.

Picture: Yellow Vest protesters against high oil prices and low standard of living

This is happening at a time were productivity in the U.S. is great. Germany`s productivity is down -0,1%, while the productivity in the U.S. is up 3%. They are the best. They are at the top of the list! Even better than China! And the stock market goes up. Wow!

Germany`s economy is not «broken,» but it is facing severe challenges. Energy costs, inflation, global demand weakness, and structural issues in key industries like manufacturing are causing slower growth.

Long-term concerns like demographic changes and lagging investment in innovation also threaten future competitiveness. While these challenges are significant, Germany has strong economic fundamentals and could recover with strategic reforms and investments.

However, the current climate is tough, and the country is at a critical point in addressing these issues. Germany is in trouble.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 23, 2024 · 4:22 pm

While Oprah didn`t explicitly express shock, her surprise was evident in her body language and responses, particularly when Harris spoke about small business tax deductions

Donald Trump is warning all the American citizens about the Democrats and Kamala Harris. Trump played a clip from Kamala Harris` Oprah interview at a North Carolina rally. During Kamala Harris` recent interview with Oprah, a few moments stood out for their controversial nature.

One of the most notable comments was Harris admitting that she owns a gun and saying; «If somebody breaks into my house, they`re getting shot.» This blunt statement surprised Oprah and many viewers.

Some also criticized Harris for appearing out of touch when she discussed a $50,000 tax deduction for small businesses, which Oprah jokingly dismissed as «a tiny business,» further stirring online debates.

Oprah`s reaction to Kamala Harris during her interview seemed mixed, especially when Harris made some blunt remarks, like discussing her gun ownership and self-defense.

While Oprah didn`t explicitly express shock, her surprise was evident in her body language and responses, particularly when Harris spoke about small business tax deductions and made more direct comments on abortion and self-defense. Oprah`s lighthearted pushback, like calling a $50,000 tax deduction «tiny,» reflected moments where she seemed taken aback by Harris` statements.

Kamala Harris has faced criticism from various political commentators and the public, with some labeling her as «childish» or «empty» in terms of substance. These critiques often stem from her public speaking style, where her remarks can sometimes appear overly simplistic or filled with awkward laughter.

For example, her tendency to repeat basic talking points in interviews and speeches has led some to feel that she lacks depth on complex issues.

Opinions on her leadership vary widely, and while some view her as progressive and compassionate, others perceive her as lacking the gravitas expected of a vice president. Her approach to policy and communication is ineffective, and she`s too weak for a role as a representative of the U.S. This is not how a cheerleader acts. This is absolutely embarrassing. For the U.S., and for the free world.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 16, 2024 · 6:26 pm

The trust in Media is declining and Former Clinton adviser Mark Penn said the debate may have been rigged by ABC News in favor of Harris

Former Clinton adviser Mark Penn has called for an internal investigation into ABC News following the 2024 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Penn raised concerns that the debate may have been rigged in favor of Harris.

He cited the moderators` disproportionate fact-checking of Trump while allowing Harris to go unchallenged on multiple occasions, creating an impression of bias.

Penn suggested ABC should hire an independent law firm to review internal communications to determine if there was an intentional effort to manipulate the debate outcome. He emphasized that the network`s moderators fact-checked Trump extensively but failed to scrutinize Harris`s claims, despite allegations that she made several false statements.

Penn also noted Harris`s close personal connections with ABC executives, adding to the suspicion of favoritism.

This criticism has come from both Republicans and some Democrats, and Trump himself said he would not participate in any more debates due to what he perceived as unfair treatment.

So far, there is no credible evidence to suggest that any debate, including one involving Donald Trump and Kamala Harris was rigged by ABC or any other network. Allegations of rigged debates are often raised in highly charged political invironments, but such claims typically lack substantiation, but an investigation could give us an answer.

In the U.S., presidential debates are organized by the Commision of Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-partisan organization. Networks like ABC or others that air these debates follow CPD guidelines, and the debate format, moderators, and rules are agreed upon by the campaigns in advance.

The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in 2024 drew 67,1 million viewers in the U.S. Despite the high viewership, the debate was met with significant controversy, particularly due to claims of bias in the moderation.

Viewership for presidential debates has historically fluctuated, with key factors like the candidates involved and the political climate influencing audience size. In comparison, the first debate in 2020 between Donald Trump and Joe Biden drew about 73 million viewers.

This is nothing compared to the most-watched U.S. Presidential debate ever; the debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on September 26, 2016, which attracted 84 million viewers.

This broke the previous record held by the 1980 debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, which drew around 80,6 million viewers.

The 2016 Trump-Clinton debate`s record viewership was attributed to the high level of interest in the polarizing candidates and the intense political climate. It was broadcast across multiple networks and also streamed online, though the 84 million figure only accounts for traditional TV viewership.

But people can see and hear and make up their own minds, and if they see something unfair, they will react. That`s exactly what people are doing. And this is exactly why the trust in media is declining.

Trust in legacy media has seen a significant decline over the past 20 years. According to Gallup, trust in mass media (newspapers, TV, radio) has dropped from around 55% in 1999 – 2001 to about 32% in 2022.

This decline has been gradual but became more pronounced in the past decade, especially during and after the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, when media credibility was increasingly questioned.

Around 55% of Americans said they trusted the media «A great deal» or «a fair amount,» in 2001. This number fell to 32% in 2016, largely fueled by political polarization. In 2022, trust hit a near-record low at 32%, with trust among Republicans being particularly low (just 14%) and Democrats at 70%.

Pew Research Center also reported a consistent decline in trust, especially among younger audiences and Republicans. They found that in 2021, only 26% of Americans said they trusted national news organizations «a lot» or «somewhat.»

The decline is attributed to factors like increased political polarization, the rise of social media, and widespread perceptions of bias or sensationalism in traditional news outlets. This decline has created a trust gap, where many Americans now turn to alternative media sources or social media for information.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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