Category Archives: Commodities

by | April 3, 2014 · 2:05 pm

European Central Bank in focus

Nikkei is up today +0,8% to 15,071,88. It`s up because of the news from China which is taking steps to stimulate its economy. All this because they want to reach their goal of the growth at 7,5% in GDP.

ECB

The dollar hit a 10-week high to the yen. Rising up after solid U.S economic data. Investors in the Euro zone are waiting for ECB news and the markets are flat so far today. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision today at 11:45 GMT.

Mario Draghi will talk about any further policy decisions at the conference at 12:30 GMT today. It is expected to see ECB keep the rates steady and offer no new aid to the euro zone`s fragile recovery.

As I wrote about yesterday; the inflation in the Euro zone is dangerously low, but despite the lowest inflation in more than four years, they will probably wait for some action now. It seems like the U.S markets will open up today.

Gold is declining as the investors are waiting for the ECB news. Because of the incumbent macro events, the gold prices is continue to fall. New reports from U.S jobs numbers comes tomorrow too. That will be a final sign to see that the economy is on the recovery path.

Reports today:

08:30 a.m EST ECB Press Conference
08:30 a.m EST Trade Balance
08:30 a.m EST Unemployment claims
10:00 a.m EST ECB President Draghi Speaks
10:00 a.m EST ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 2, 2014 · 1:58 pm

Gold at 7-week low

Gold is still declining from a technical sell signal and a weaker U.S dollar followed by ECB (European Central Bank) meeting is not pushing the gold higher. The ECB will probably do something to help boost the inflation, but it is still too early to see any action now.

Gold

Eurostats reported on monday that annual consumer inflation fell to 0,5%, and that`s the lowest since November 2009. A drop from 0,7% in February. If ECB don`t do something about it now, EUR/USD could break above $1,40 and hit $1,50.

The ECB will probably wait and see what`s happening with the inflation. The drop from 0,7% to 0,5% is significant. The correlation between Euro and Gold has been very strong so far.

As the inflation drops dangerously low, Mario Draghi will probably start to announce some kind of a quantitative easing, or some stronger forward guidance, but it could be too early to do that this week.

ECB can lose its monetary policy if they stop absorbing the liquidity. They used to purchase government bonds, and sterilizing it will have a huge impact on the money supply. It will neutralize their impact on the supply and then lower the risk of inflation.

We saw a sell signal on gold at $1320 and gold prices are down -3,0% since the signal told us to sell. Look out for $1250 on gold. That will be a profit target. Gold hits its 7-week low in lack of bullish news.

Many traders are awaiting for the U.S jobs reports on Friday. This is the most important U.S economic report of the month. In the Euro zone, the Markit manufacturing PMI came in at 53,0 last month, down from 53,2 in February.

Next level to look for in Gold is $1250. If it break that level, the bearish down-trend continue. I will look for $19 in silver which is the bears next near-term downside breakout price. Copper is up 0,99% today. Trading at $306,45. Next bull upside level is $310.

Today, I will look at the economic report at 08:15 a.m EST. That news will show us that U.S economic recovery is on track or not. European stocks gains before the report today. S&P 500 is little changed after the gauge closed at a record yesterday.

Reports today:

08:15 a.m EST ADP Nonfarm Employment Change.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 27, 2014 · 1:42 pm

Gold @ 6-week low

 

Take a look at the gold price today. Down -1,24%, trading at $1,295,20. Silver is now below $20, trading at 19,67. Down -1,55%, followed by copper which is down -0,98%, trading at $298,15. Not good for the commodities at the moment, but that`s why I said I`m not bullish, but less bearish on commodities.

Gold

Gold prices fell to a six week low yesterday. Declining on more technical selling pressure. The Fed of St. Louis president James Bullard said the U.S economy is improving and sees the unemployment below 6% at the end of this year.

European stocks rallied yesterday, as the European Central Bank have an idea to embark on further monetary policy stimulus due to concerns about deflation in the Euro zone. In addition; the Fed issued a report that was deemed as less dovish than investors expected.

Bears next downside breakout price objective is closing prices below a technical support at $1300,00. It is the macro-news that drives the metal prices and the down trend in copper is in a three-month old downtrend in the daily bar chart.

In a new report released yesterday, Barclays have revised their gold price forecast for 2014 from $1205/oz to $1250/oz. Other average price forecast for 2014 from Barclays is silver, $19 an ounce. China has become the world`s largest gold-consuming nation, and Barclays expect the gold consumption will continue to grow.

A key for gold will be whether indian authorities ease restrictions on gold imports meant to control the current-account deficit. “We think a decision likely will not be made until after the end of the fiscal year, and perhaps more likely not until after (spring) elections,” Barclays said. “Such a move would provide the next cushion of support for gold prices, in our view.”

“We think the extent of the decline in copper prices is overdone since micro trends have likely bottomed, though macro concerns and stock overhang take some of the potential upside off our Q2 price forecast,” Barclays said. “China is now the biggest risk — in both directions.

Reports today:

08:30 AM ET Unemployment Claims
08:30 AM ET FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks
08:30 AM ET Final GDP q/q
08:30 AM ET Final GDP Price Index q/q
10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales
10:30 AM ET Natural Gas Storage

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | March 24, 2014 · 1:31 pm

AT&T up

A nice rally for Asian stocks today. Nikkei up +1,77% to 14,475 points. Hang Seng is up +1,91% to 21,846,45 points. Gold and Silver is down and European stocks are in the same direction; in a red territory today.

100px-AT&T_logo.svg

U.S indices will open up today, and many investors are now bullish on AT&T. The investors have not been that bull since Apple chose AT&T as exclusive carrier for their original iPhone. The stocks dividend payout will lure income investors searching for yield.

So far this year has been bad for the shareholders at AT&T. The shares sank 9,2% in January and February and that is the worst start to a year since 2010. AT&T have like other in the same business faced increased price competition in the mobile market.

The drop pushed the dividend payout to the highest among the 30 stocks in the Dow. The average yield of stocks in the S&P 500 is about 1,9%, while 10-year Treasuries (USGG10YR) have paid an average of 2,52% in the past year.

Reports today:

09:45 AM ET Flash Manufacturing PMI

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 21, 2014 · 2:37 pm

Twitter 8 year

A big jump for Copper today which is up +1,33% to 296,75. Gold, Silver and Oil is also up today. A great jump for the U.S stocks yesterday too. S&P 500 is now trading at 1,872,01. Up +0,60%. Nasdaq traded up +0,27% yesterday but not all the tech companies went up yesterday.

twitter_newbird_boxed_blueonwhite-11

First of all: congratulations to Twitter which is 8 years old today. Can you belive that? I hope it will be a great day for Twitter on the stock exchange today. That will be a great gift, because yesterday was a bad day for Twitter. Down -2,19%.

Twitter is not alone: Facebook went down -1,86% and Apple went down -0,48%. What is that suppose to mean? It is a sale signal for Facebook. Is this the time for investors to get out of Facebook and other tech stocks? Time will show.

Twitter is an online social networking and microblogging service company that enables users to send and read «tweets». According to Yahoo.com, the microblogger went dark in Turkey just hours after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to «wipe out» Twitter which (along with others) was highlighting corruptions against his inner circle.

The EU commissioner for digital agenda, Neelie Kroes, tweeted that the block «is groundless, pointless, cowardly». Erdogan`s office said in a statement that Twitter had remained «indifferent» to Turkish court rulings demanding «some links» be removed.

Erdogan will wipe out Twitter and say he don`t care about the international community. Turkey`s leader since 2003 is under pressure since audio recording spread across social media that appeared to put him at the heart of a major corruption scandal.

Some of the most damaging information has come from a Twitter account under the name Haramzadeler («Sons of Thieves») which have access to a huge trove of secrets documents and policy wiretaps linked to the investigation. Erdogan say the recordings are fake and threatened to ban YouTube and Facebook after crucial elections on March 30.

Erdogan say this social media companies like Twitter «menace» for helping organise mass anti-government protests.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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