Category Archives: Commodities

by | October 11, 2013 · 2:27 pm

Bullish move

S&P 500 and the Dow was up 2,18% yesterday. Nasdaq was up 2,26%. What a bullish move! The biggest move since the beginning of this year. The biggest move comes from the Russel 2000, which is up 2,50%. VIX dropped down -15,92%, and ended up to open at 16,48.

All this because of the positive news we talked about yesterday. Obama have invited the republicans and the democrats to discuss the debt limit and both parts seems to be positive about a short term solution.

When we see a bullish move like that, we often see gold goes in the opposite direction. Gold broke its important $1300 level, and are now trading at $1283,7. It seems like the gold will continue it`s downtrend.

The gold prices are in trouble. It`s probably a gold price crices. We have had a downtrend for a while, and it seems to continue. The comming hyperinflation is imminent, and the FED`s balance sheet problems goes in the opposite direction of the goldprices. That is nasty for the precious metal.

At the same time we can see a rebound in the U.S dollar, and that is often a very bearish factor for the gold index. Jobless claims showed a rise in claims yesterday. The data was skewed because the reports did not include all 50 U.S states.

Micron Technology (MU) have been overbought since early september. What a bullish stock that is! Micron Technology Inc is one of the biggest and best providers of advanced semiconductor solutions. They manufactures and markets DRAM, NAND Flash and NOR-flash memory and other innovative memory technologies. Micron falls after Q4 earnings miss.

News for today: Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

Today I have added a chart with DJ, Nasdaq and S&P 500 compared with the gold bugs. This showes us that it has been a terrible year so far for the gold stocks. Gold traded at $1700 at the beginning of this year. Barrick gold Corp Inc traded at 47 in january and are now at 17,84. Wow!

HUI and index

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 9, 2013 · 11:41 am

Earning seasons

Earning seasons are upon us, and as you know; stock prices follow earnings. So, whats driving the markets is corporate profits, but that`s also the key to a dropdown. To make the S&P 500 go up 1 percent, you need to have a profit of $1 billion.

That is not what happend during the dot-com bubble. That`s why the markets plummeted. Now, it is a match of the index/stock prices and the profits (after tax). Normally, it goes up and down within a trendline. When we hit the roof, we will often see a correction. Looking at the correlation between the index and the profits right now, it isn`t something wrong with the bull market.

October means earnings begins to roll out and gives the traders a huge trading opportunities. Concur technologies Inc (CNQR) took the Wall Street by storm with the earnings and revenues last time. The volume skyrocket, and so did the stockprice.

We are at the all time high and it will be interesting to see the earnings comming in now. I think the picture will be mixed, but if the shutdown continue in the long run, it may affect the GDP and the earnings, which means you know how Q4 will be?

I often look at the commodity prices and I follow copper very closely. Copper are trading up and I often see the copper price together with the 10 day moving average. The price is on target of the 10 MA and tells me a lot about the demand for this commodity. The gold price is also on target for  the 10 MA.

News to have a look at today is Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, 10 Year Note Auction 1:01pm, FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00pm. I look forward to hear from the FOMC meeting. I have added two charts today. Copper and Gold compared to the 10 day MA.

Copper 10MA

Gold 10 MA

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 8, 2013 · 1:30 pm

Market update

Investors are not so patient, and Putin is not patient either. He told Obama to try to find a solution on the budget crises as soon as possible. Investors are tolking to Obama thru VIX. It`s going up as we now are in the second week with the shutdown. Gold is now at $1321, and it seems like investors are sitting on their hands now.

Russian President Putin warned Presiden Obama to solve the debt/budget crises as soon as possible. Many investors are now very nervous as we are in the second week with no solution on the budget crises.

The markets was up on friday, down again on monday. It goes a little bit up, and a little bit down. In sum, it goes sideways. So far. Investors are waiting for october 17. That date will be a date we will remember in the future I think.

December Comex gold was last up $13.80 at $1,323.80 an ounce. Spot gold was up $12.50 at $1324.25. A weak dollar were bullish for the gold yesterday as it rose up with good gains. As the markets go down, and the fear goes up, the safe-heaven precious metal goes up.

The world`s largest economy China will be back from it`s Golden Week holiday season, and that could increase the demand for the yellow metal. The holiday for India starts very soon, and that can affect the gold prices with the consumer spending in India.

We can`t get any U.S economic data because of the shutdown. The FOMC minutes will be launched on wednesday and other people from the Fed officials will be speaking later on this week. Investors will scrutinize every word they say and that will have a huge impact of the financial markets.

The U.S Treasury Department told the U.S government on thursday last week that default would damage the confidence to the U.S economy and in addition increase the government`s borrowing costs.

A default could allow rating agencies to downgrade the U.S debt, which in return can impact the Treasury market. It can affect the price of Treasury bonds and notes, and if they are used to hedge in commodity markets, then the investors need to pay more money. The American bonds are used as collateral by futures commission merchants. That`s why the commodity markets can be hit in a ripple effect.

Below you will see the new $100 bill. It`s the first redesign since 1996 with better security and harder to forge. Nice!

new100

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 2, 2013 · 12:55 pm

Gold fall

It`s not a rush to safeheaven. Gold falls and it`s below the very important psycological support at $1300! People thought that if we saw a shutdown then the strong support at $1300 would be a great chance to buy, but that is not the case now.

So far, silver is down 3,5%, with copper and other base metals drops about 2%. China is a big buyer and they have holiday all this week, and that is a huge lack of demand. People seems to be interesting in raising cash too.

Gold is below the 100 day moving average ($1339), and silver is also below the 100 day moving average ($21,52). Next levels for the gold is $1290 and if that is broken, the next level is $1271. December Comex gold was last down $37.40 at $1,289.90 an ounce.

Today, I will look at these news: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 8:15am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks at 3:30pm

gold_price_wobbles_as_liquidation_intensifies

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 20, 2013 · 11:35 am

“Quadruple Witching”

The news from the FED was good news for the markets. As you already know, the FED will continue to print money and that is stock, commodities and bond markets. More fresh money into the markets means more money into stocks, commodities and bonds.

A new FED chairman/woman will take place early in 2014. When is the tapering going to take place? It should be now, but it didn`t start now, and I don`t think it will be before the next FED chairman/woman is on place. In the meantime; investors are trying to figure out when it will happen, because it will affect the markets.

Options programs expires today, and that happens four times a year. Equity options, stock index futures, stock index options and single stock futures are expiring too. This moments tend to move the markets, but sometimes it only goes sideways. This happenings is called “Quadruple Witching”.

I will keep an eye on the crude oil today. Trading range for crude oil has been between 102 and 110. It is time for a breakout because this trading range has been a sideways trading range for eight weeks now.

Technical resistance in Gold are at $1400. Support at $1307. Right now the price is $1364. I will look for breakout on this targets, and a close above $1400 are bullish. I see a strong support on $1307. Gold have been in an downtrend for a long time now.

Take a close look at the SPY index. MACD is bullish, but the RSI is high. Normally when it breaks the upper bollinger band, it`s a game changer. You can see in the chart how it worked back in may. Next week I will have a very special history about next week. In the meantime, I will spend this weekend trying to figure out what FED people are thinking right now.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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