Category Archives: Commodities

Risky business

Copper is in red territory today, town -2,03%, followed by Crude oil (brent), which is down -0,80%. Gold and silver is up. Asia is trading down today. Hang Seng is down -1,75%, Shanghai is down -2,86%, while Nikkei closed down 1% at 15,120,14.

Asian markets tumbled today. People are worried about the Ukraine crises and some are disappointed about the surprisingly weak Chinese trade data released today. All this, despite the surprisingly good news from the U.S on friday. Nonfarm payrolls was better than expected.

The commodity-sensitive Australian and Canadian dollars suffered today, as copper of which China is a major consumer, reached a four-year low in Shanghai. Australian and Canadian dollars lost half a percent against a steady U.S dollar. The Chinese yuan opened down 0,5%.

Groupon Inc (Nadaq:GRPN), is still the market leader in the daily deal voucher sales, but the stock is declining while this stocks seems to be a risky stock. Most of the Groupon`s customers are often struggling merchant partner who can`t afford to pay.

In worst case, if many of them go bankrupt, then Groupon will lose a lot of money. In addition; Groupon will pay back the customers if the merchant fails, and unused vouchers has increased to $725 million.

Merchants need to offer discounts of 50%, and share 50% of the rest with Groupon. As you know, this is a risky business. Merchants do not earn money and have no control if too many vouchers are issued.

Groupon say they are «the morst effective local advertiser tool» available for marketers, but I think that the shoppers are the winners here. Mainly because the shoppers are one-time shoppers looking for good deal, better called «coupon hunters», which is not loyal repeated customers.

This can be a ticking bomb, and the stock is now trading at $8,60. The stock will open down today -0,58%. The stock is down -67,16% from the top, and so far this year the stock is down -26,90%. Groupon shows us that not everything in the social space is rosy.

Revenue growth and user growth is the king in the stock market.

Groupon logo

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Market Update

Nikkei rose +1,20% after comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin eased worries about military action in Ukraine. We also saw a big bullish move in the U.S markets yesterday. It was so green and beautiful.

European shares are steady today and commodities like gold and oil is trading down today. It seems like the U.S markets will open up today. Not bad after the bullish race yesterday: Nasdaq was up +1,75%, while S&P 500 went up +1,53%. The DOW is trading at 16,395,88, up +227,85, which is up +1,41%. Wow!

It is difficult to predict the future for currencies and oil. That`s because it is all about politics. Investors don`t like war, and what Putin or Obama says or do will have a huge impact of the financial markets.

Reports today:

08:15 AM ET ADP Employment Report
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 PM ET Beige Book

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Stocks rebound

We are in a positive territory again. Stocks up and commodities down. Gold is down -0,81% to 1,339,30. Copper is down -0,41 to 317,45. Crude Oil (Brent) is down -1,27% to 109,79. But Silver is up +0,17 to 21,27.

 

What Putin and Russia did was expensive to Russia. The Russian stock exchange (MICEX) plummeted after Putin declared the right to invade Ukraine. MICEX fell $58,4 bln from friday to monday, but are trading up again today.

 

The cost of the Winter Olympic games was $51 billion, held in the southern city of Sochi. In other words; the decision to invade Ukraine was more expensive for Russia than the whole Winter Olympic games.

 

Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops to turn back to the base and stop all military exercises. That is music in the investors ears, wich is now less nervous and the stock market is turning up again.

 

CAC 40 is up +1,34%. FTSE 100 is up 1,08%. DAX is up 1,03% and FTSE MIB is up +1,71%. Warren Buffet say war is a buying opportunity, because money in it self will lose value. Other investors say commodities like gold is a safe-heaven bet.

 

Tesla (TSLA) don`t care about wars. Trading up +2,13% yesterday and seems to continue up today. Tesla is up +619,3% (1 YR). So far in 2014, Tesla is up 70,1%. What a great company. It seems like the new safe-heaven is Tesla!

money2

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

 

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Gold price forecasts

Gold seems to have started a new bull market and the gold price is near a four-month high. Silver is at its highest since October 2013. A report from Street Research say that Chinese monetary authorities may be planning to convert the yuan into a gold-backed international currency. Primarily to deliver the dollar its comeuppance.

 

Data from CFTC shows that large players like hedge funds and other portfolio managers boosted their long exposures by 31% as on February 18. Gold prices should rebound because of the shift in the market from QE to tapering and global investor perception regarding currency values.

 

Technical selling, dollar`s strength, the sustained rise in equity and the Fed`s taper is the primary factors that caused the most recent fall in gold. The chart below is a study of the gold triggers since 1970:

Goldprice 1970 - 2014

The correlations between the gold price and the country’s balance sheet have turned negative lately. Combined assets of the U.S Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and BOJ could reach somewhere between $8 – 9 trillion in 2014. The analysts warn it can stay there for a while.

 

Liquidity and currency perception can drive the gold price movements rather than traditional supply – demand analytics. Chinese demand and the likelihood that Indian restrictions on gold imports could be lifted are macro factors that can be positive on gold prices.

 

The analysts expect that Central Banks would be strong buyers of gold in the future too. The analysts observe a 98% correlation between the US public debt and gold prices. With federal debt projected to rise to World-War-II levels by 2038, gold prices could be headed much higher.

 

Mining companies have adjusted their business models to the new low price environment and it is expected that the mining companies will sustain the performance and profit from it in the future. Commodity experts say India is playing a key role in the gold price.

 

The forecasts for gold are an average about $1300 per oz in 2014 estimates Sterne Agee. Silver is forecast at $23 per oz. The gold can vary from high $1,450 and a low of $1,100, while silver can reach $25 per oz.

Reports today:

10:00 AM ET New home sales

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Expensive oil shale revolution

Asian shares fell today and the Japanese yen rose as the growth in Chinese home prices eased for the first time in 14 months. Tokyo`s Nikkei index fell 0,2%. Tokyo stocks are also down, while the activity in its major export is declining.

 

European stocks and the Euro got a boost on Monday as the German carmaker Volkswagen came with a disappointed outlook with limited gains. Right after Viktor Yanukovich was ousted rom the presidency in Ukraine, the country`s dollar bonds skyrocketed, and the hryvnia currency fell.

 

On the commodities front, Brent crude is down -0,15% to $109,68. Gold is up for a third week in a row, to $1,334,10, up +0,79%. Silver is up 0,76%, to $21,98 and Copper is down together with the markets, to 322,00, down -1,23%.

 

Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is pursuing strategic alternatives for its oilfield services division. The Oilfiesld Services generataed revenue of $2,2B last year. The investor Carl Icahn own 10% of the shares in Chesapeake Energy. Rumors say he is seeking a cash bid of up to $40 a share.

 

Rising natural gas prices could help the company to profit off a plan to revive the maligned Haynesville shale play, where it gambled billions of dollars six years ago. The rigs they have could boost daily rates for the U.S land drilling company.

 

Chesapeakes Energy`s plan would increase the number of Haynesville rigs 25% – 50 by the end of this year. Renewed gas drilling could drive up margins for U.S rig contractors. CHK have spent a lot of money in oil shale drilling, so higher demand will help then in the future.

 

It will be interesting to see who buyer will be in CHK. Is it gonna be Icahn, Exxon Mobil or ConocoPhillips? All of them are potential buyers while European majors disqualify themselves. Carl Icahn sold half of his stake in Netflix last year. He have success with investments in Herbalife (HLF) and Apple (AAPL) too.

 

Selling half of his shares in Netflix gave him a profit of $800 million. Carl Icahn started in 1980`s as an activist investor and there has never been a better time for activist investing than today. Activist involvement is necessary to ensure the competitiveness of corporate America. Chesapeake Energy is more of a restructuring play right now. CHK will probably continue to sell itself piece by piece.

Reports today:

10:00 AM ET CB Consumer Confidence

 

CHK

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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