Author Archives: Ket Garden

by | March 14, 2014 · 12:50 pm

Gold bull

A big drop for Nikkei today. Down -3,3% and 6,2% for the week. Futures contracts expires and there are some Ukraine ans slowing China growth fear. U.S indices sled yesterday too. All the European markets are also down today.

Gold

Is this the beginning of the end? Yes, but I don`t think the market will crash now. We are in a stage three-phase which have started now. We see markets are going up but at the same time we see fewer stocks participating in the bull market.

 

This is what happens in a bull market when it comes to an end. The final leg can go on for months, so it is not expected to see the bear to attack yet. This is the reason why I am not buying U.S stocks now. It`s late in the party.

 

But if I`m righ, I have recognised a new party that have just begun. It hit the bottom at the end last year, and now we see it above 250, which is a good sign. 50 MA have not crossed the 200 MA yet, so we have to be cautious.

 

What I am talking about is the gold bugs. I like what I see, but I am very sceptical at the same time, or let`s say still less bearish. I follow this market every day and I know that most of the people in this business are not so positive and that bother me a bit.

 

Reports today:

 

08:30 AM ET PPI m/m
08:30 AM ET Core PPI m/m
09:55 AM ET Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
09:55 AM ET Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 13, 2014 · 1:11 pm

Celebrating the bull Market

The Bull market is five years and four days old, since the market crash in 2008. Investors are satisfied with a gain of +175% in S&P 500 since then, but some investors are nervous. About what? Some of them know that a bull market lasts five years and three months.

shinybull_for_sitesite-7

The market will probably crash and some investors think so, but others say the bull market will continue. There are two reasons for that: First of all: there is a lot of money on the sidelines or in underperforming bond funds.

Many investors remember the bear markets in 2000 – 2002 and 2008 – 2009. They burned both times and now they will be late to the party once again. As they jump on board, stocks will continue to leap higher.

Secondly: Economic expansion is much slower this time. Usually 3% GDP growth is coming out of most of recessions. This time it goes much slower and we are about 1 – 2% GDP growth. That`s why we will see more legs for this bullish market.

Any way, this market is difficult. There are so much information out there that is too much disturbing, so it`s all about picking the right stocks now. The other thing to do is to look for the right market. I still look at emerging markets despite the fear out there.

The simple reason why I am doing that is because the stock market have gone much longer than the real economy and growth. GDP is about 1 – 2% in U.S and in China it is expected to see a GDP about 7,5%, down from 10%. But it`s still high.

Reports today:

08:30 AM ET Core Retail Sales m/m
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales m/m
08:30 AM ET Unemployment claims
08:30 AM ET Import prices m/m
10:00 AM ET Business Inventories m/m
10:00 AM ET Fed Gov Nomination Hearings
02:00 PM ET Federal Budget Balance

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 12, 2014 · 2:11 pm

China fears

Japan`s Nikkei fell -2,6% today, as investors locked in some profits as caution over Chinese demand continued to hurt commodity stocks. Nikkei ended at 14,830,39 points. It`s all down in Europe too. Gold is up +1,22%.

Gold

Shanghai copper fell by its 5% daily limit and London copper hit a 44-month low. Investors eyes are on mining stocks now because the world’s top user of copper (China) could unlock copper from financing deals and unleash more selling.

Credit Agricole said in a note that it looks bad, and that copper prices continue to be hit by China growth worries. Ukraine tensions have intensified with diplomatic efforts yielding no success and that makes investors nervous.

The U.S markets will open up in a negative territory today, putting the S&P 500 on track for a third day of declines. All this because of the China fear. Not all the investors are selling stocks. Some of them are always looking for bulls.

Take a look at Oxigene Inc (OXGN:O) today. That stock surged 145% before the opening bell, trading at $5,93. They have declared a contract with shareholders to purchase an aggregate of almost $12 million of units at a price of $2,05.

The share faced its lowest price of $2,09 during the latest trading session. The trading volume with the big jump is 8,54 million shares, compared with the average of 586,076 shares. The company`s market cap is $27,75 billion with 11,47 million shares outstanding.

Reports today:

 

10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:01 AM ET 10-y Bond Auction

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 11, 2014 · 1:53 pm

Retailer dead

It is expensive to do business on the corner today. If you own a shop at the corner in New York, you need to sell a lot of products to pay your staff. House prices are high too. It`s cheaper to have an online store.

Take a look at Radioshack (RSH), which is down -38,5% (1YR). They are doomed. A great shop with great products in a great market for many years. Now, things have changed. Radioshack is declining and this is a sign of the era in the retailer business.

Why should people buy a cable from Radioshack when they can buy it from Amazon with a better price? You can buy a cable for $20 Radioshack brand, but Amazon (AMZN) can sell the same set for only $10.

In addition; Amazon can ship for an extra $3,99 within 24 hours. Of course you can wait a day for the cables. Much better than spending time in the car driving back and forth, plus spending a lot of money on gas.

If I need any experts to tell me about the cables, I can chat with Amazon. In addition to over prices gear, Radioshack have poorly trained and underpaid staff, so my decision is easy. Radioshack need a new business model and that is fast. Radioshack is down -17,7% only this year (2014).

Retail sales are down so far this year. This is probably the new trend now. I wrote about it last year and this behaviour will affect coffee shops like Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) too. The stock is down -6,2% in 2014.

Amazon is doing everything right. They are big, have low prices which increase their market share, which can be leveraged going forward. They are effective and have a great distribution. The shareholders in Amazon know that better than others.

Amazon`s share price moved more than 50% last year. A big jump from $257,31 per share to more than $398 per share. It`s a dynamic company with cloud computing with AWS and digital streaming through Prime Instant Video.

Amazon competes in the E-commerce Catalog & Mail Order House industry, which holds about 40 percent of the industry market share. Amazon is better than eBay on their search capability to optimize user purchasing experience.

Amazon Prime is a key growth for Amazon. They try to enter the music industry and will try to grad some markets share of music sellers. Many have rated Amazon`s Prime better than Netflix (NFLX). It will be difficult for Amazon to everything I think.

They try as best as they can to take a big bite of market shares in the entertainment industry, where they try to beat the industry leader Netflix. Amazon is down -7,1% so far this year, but I think this company will continue to grow.

So, watch out for Radioshack. They can go bankrupt, while Amazon will keep going forward I think. Those two different companies represent two different business models and reflect the new era in the new online business world.

v

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 10, 2014 · 2:17 pm

Risky business

Copper is in red territory today, town -2,03%, followed by Crude oil (brent), which is down -0,80%. Gold and silver is up. Asia is trading down today. Hang Seng is down -1,75%, Shanghai is down -2,86%, while Nikkei closed down 1% at 15,120,14.

Asian markets tumbled today. People are worried about the Ukraine crises and some are disappointed about the surprisingly weak Chinese trade data released today. All this, despite the surprisingly good news from the U.S on friday. Nonfarm payrolls was better than expected.

The commodity-sensitive Australian and Canadian dollars suffered today, as copper of which China is a major consumer, reached a four-year low in Shanghai. Australian and Canadian dollars lost half a percent against a steady U.S dollar. The Chinese yuan opened down 0,5%.

Groupon Inc (Nadaq:GRPN), is still the market leader in the daily deal voucher sales, but the stock is declining while this stocks seems to be a risky stock. Most of the Groupon`s customers are often struggling merchant partner who can`t afford to pay.

In worst case, if many of them go bankrupt, then Groupon will lose a lot of money. In addition; Groupon will pay back the customers if the merchant fails, and unused vouchers has increased to $725 million.

Merchants need to offer discounts of 50%, and share 50% of the rest with Groupon. As you know, this is a risky business. Merchants do not earn money and have no control if too many vouchers are issued.

Groupon say they are «the morst effective local advertiser tool» available for marketers, but I think that the shoppers are the winners here. Mainly because the shoppers are one-time shoppers looking for good deal, better called «coupon hunters», which is not loyal repeated customers.

This can be a ticking bomb, and the stock is now trading at $8,60. The stock will open down today -0,58%. The stock is down -67,16% from the top, and so far this year the stock is down -26,90%. Groupon shows us that not everything in the social space is rosy.

Revenue growth and user growth is the king in the stock market.

Groupon logo

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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