Author Archives: Ket Garden

October 2014

Shiny bull will be back on Monday 13 October.

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Zalando IPO

Zalando listed about 10% of its shares in the public offering on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange yesterday. The company`s €21,50 issue price was set at the upper end of its bookbuilding range, but their debut was described as disappointing by analysts yesterday. It seems like they all are preparing for the coming battle in this e-commerce business. Zalando is a big e-commerce retailer in Europe.

Zalando

Zalando is founded in 2008 by David Schneider and CEO Robert Gentz. Zalando is a multinational e-commerce company that specialises in selling shoes, clothing and other fashion and lifestyle products online. In addition they are a tech powerhouse, leading Berlin`s startup scene to the Frankfurt floor.

It is a German company and has since their start expanded to offer its retail services in a total of fourteen European countries. The company`s headquarter are in Berlin. They are inspired by US online retailer Zappos.com.

They started initially specialised in the sale of footwear but has since grown to encompass other areas of fashion, lifestyle and sports. Schulze said that Zalando is a European online retailer and not a pure German one.

Zalando`s offering is one of Germany`s most significant e-commerce IPO to date. Revenue from online shopping in the country is expected to grow 22% this year and 16% next year ($73,5 billion). More than half of Zalando`s revenue comes from Germany, Switzerland and Austria. They had 2 billion euros in sales for the 12 months ended in June.

Zalando shares rose 14% in their IPO debut in Germany. Nothing compared to Alibaba`s smashing success. As you know, Alibaba now are flush with cash and I think they will spend most of it in the overseas markets.

This could leasd to M&A activity. Wayfair.com is still unprofitable, but they will try to raise $350 million and that is about 2x estimated 2014 revenue. That`s a $2,35 billion valuation. Zalando is a Zappos.com clone in Europe, but both Wayfair.com and Zalando are growing fast, and much faster than Overstock in the U.S. Zalando`s sale rose 30% in the first six months this year. 3X revenue for Zalando will be about $7 billion valuation. Far away from Alibaba.

A lot of things will happen in this market in the future. M&A is the key to grow fast and be big and I will be impressed if Alibaba can deliver the goods as fast as they do in China. The same day, within a few hours. Impressive! This is the reason why eBay was kicked out of the market in China, according to Jack Ma. It will interesting to follow this business in the future. This is only the beginning of a success story.

Web investor Rocket Internet is also poised to list today.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Yahoo! retirees

If I asked you what Google is, you would say; a search engine. If I asked you about Apple, Twitter or Facebook, I assume you know what it is. But what if I ask you what Yahoo! Is? What is it? A site with different things?

Yahoo logo

You know what ebay is, and you know what PayPal is, and after years saying they`re better together, they are splitting up. I think that is a smart thing to do, and people shouldn`t worry, because both companies have so far been a part of people`s life since they`re first day.

Elon Musk sold PayPal to eBay in 2003 and it was a great match. It became easy for people to process payments for eBay sales. This split is all about growth. You can imagine what PayPal can do in the digital wallet business if they don`t have to worry about eBay?

Right now you feel like you must have a PayPal account to shop on eBay, but you don`t. And here is the key. Later on this month, Apple will launch the new Apple Pay, and that will crash with eBay and PayPal`s mirrage. The mirrage is now over, and it`s a tricky divorce.

Now, people can pay a dozen different ways, like Apple Pay, Bitcoin or PayPal and so on. That`s fair. It`s up to the people to make a choice. It depends on where they have an account. I think many will sign up for the new Apple Pay system. They will revolutionize the digital business, and probably have a monopoly in the market, but what about Yahoo? What are they doing? What is it?

Yahoo! is not expanding. They are going in the opposite direction. They closed Yahoo Education yesterday, because, as they say, it is outside of their core experience. In addition; Users`needs are already well served by alternative online resources.

They will also shut down the Qwiki app, which automatically created short movies based on events from a user`s camera roll. They will shut down the app on November 1, but the Qwiki team will continue to innovate on a new digital media experience for Yahoo users.

Yahoo started about twenty years ago as a directory of websites that helped users explore the internet. They are still committed to connecting users with the information they`re passionate about, and their business has evolved and at the end of the year (December 31, 2014), they will retire the Yahoo Directory.

Yahoo still owns about 16% of Alibaba and Yahoo`s market cap is $40,3 billion, but the value can approach about $46 bilion. Their core business are generating only about $700 million.

The cash made by the Alibaba IPO are more worth than the company`s current market capitalization, and the company could be fairly priced with a multiplier of only 5.

The stock can move from here, and the pressure to merge with AOL has pumped the stock. I don`t think people will jump into this stock before they know more about what direction it will move. Yahoo moved up +0,57% yesterday. Price; $40,75.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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GoPro Rally

GoPro went public a few months ago (june, 2014) and is up +154,3% only in three months. Up +10,8% yesterday. IPO price per share in june was $23, then the shares skyrocketed quickly to $70 per share. There has been some overenthusiastic investor activity and this stock might not look attractive to a fundamental investor.

GoPro Hero4

(Picture: GoPro Hero4)

I think that this is a sexy stock to have in a portfolio. It all began as an idea to help athletes self-document themselves engaged in their sport, and has become a widely adopted solution for people to self-document themselves engaged in their interests.

They transform the way consumers capture, manage, share and enjoy meaningful life experiences. it`s done by enabling people to self-capture engaging, immersive photo and video content of themselves participating in their favorite activities. Customers are some of the world`s most active and passionate people.

Not only athletes use GoPro cameras, as their products have fast become mainstream, and GoPro has enabled the world to capture and share its passions. In doing so the world in turn, is helping GoPro become one of the most exciting and aspirational companies of our time.

We saw a GoPro and Ambarella rally because three new cameras is launched. It`s new flagship «Hero4 Black camera» is the first model in GoPro`s lineup to support 4K video recording. It does so at up to 30fps.

It`s faster Wi-Fi, better low-light performance, an improved UI, and the ability to take 12MP photos at 30fps.

Hero4 Silver is the first model to sport a touchscreen that allows users to see their footage. They are also launching Hero that can record 1080p video at 30 fps. Hero could reel in first-time action camera buyers at a time when penetration rates are still relatively low. GoPro`s free video-editing software has been revamped.

The video processor supplier Ambarella rallied too. GoPro shares set a new high last week. GoPro`s guidance range of Q3 sales forecast is raised to the high end. Their growth prospects seems to be very good. The stock is in the middle range. Not cheap, nor is it expensive, with a multiple of 50 with a growth rate at 34%. I think many will jump in and buy on any dip, because the stock price is a bit crazy as the investors are focusing on the top-line growth. The revenue growth has been extremely impressive for GoPro so far, and they have a strong business model.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Gold is at a critical level

The dollar hit a four-year peak compared to major currencies today, and while the dollar is moving higher, the gold is declining. The dollar is moving higher as everyone have all their eyes on the expectations of interest rate in the U.S right now.

Gold

Strong economic data could prompt the U.S central bank to raise interest rates faster and sooner than expected, and that could boost the dollar. The pressure on gold from a stronger dollar was mitigated by a fall in equity markets after Honk Kong riot police advanced on pro-democracy protesters in the worst unrest since China took over the former British colony two decades ago. Gold is traditionally seen as an alternative investment during times of political instability.

Gold is still in a bearish territory. At the end of last year, the precious metal started to move higher. We saw higher highs and people were bullish. It was a positive sign, but it was a positive sign in a negative trend.

The precious metal is still declining and it is just a matter of time before we see a test of the critical support at $1,185. Gold moved higher when the U.S forces began bombing raids in Syria, but gold is down together with Silver, which is below $18 right now.

We can see the same trend in Platinum, which moved sharply lower, down almost $40, and palladium down almost $30, so Gold continues to get more expensive relative to its precious cousins.

A portfolio should contain about 10% of precious metals, because as we have seen over the past decades, gold can cushion an investment portfolio during times of crises. Right now we are at a very interesting and perhaps critical juncture with respect to the direction of the gold price as it approaches a key support level.

It can move up and it can move down, and I`m following some key support and resistance levels for the precious metals. The gold price can move down to $1000 and below. It all depends on happenings around the world.

The signals out there is mixed which makes the bulls and bears very frustrated. That`s why it is important to trade what you see, not what you think. I`m exited about the coming weeks and moths.

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