Do you belive the Fed will hike on Thursday?
If so, you are among economists and strategists that belive so, but traders are betting strongly against it, and that alone is enough to wait at least one month before liftoff, according to Morgan Stanley.
CME FedWatch tool says the probability is at just 21 percent, and Morgan Stanley said its readings on trading show a 30 percent probability that «overstated the chance» of a rate rise.
Lessons learned in 1994 that reverberated into 1999 and 2004 will prelude a rate hike until the futures market prices one in. In 1999 and 2004, the central bank waited for market expectations to exceed 50 percent before moving, learning a lesson from 1994 when it tightened.
CNBC said there is one good reason the Federal Reserve won`t vote to raise interest rates, and that`s History. So, what is all this about?
Rates have been near zero since the recession, and the Fed have delayed its first-rate hike since 2006. But why is the interest rate so low? See it like this; The lower the rates, the more problems it is in the economy.
When the economy is strong and everything is okay, interest rates are hiked in order to curb inflation, but when we face tough times, the Fed will cut rates to encourage lending and inject money into the economy.
Investors can predict what the Fed (or other central banks) will do by looking at economic indicators such as;
Retail Sales: Consumer spending
The Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inflation, and
Non-farm Payrolls: Employment levels
If these indicators improve and the economy is doing well, rates will be raised, but if the improvement is small, it will be maintained. Drops in these indicators can mean a rate cut in order to encourage borrowing.
Other indicators to foreshadow changes in the economy is building permits, average weekly hours, new orders and the spread between 10-year Treasuries and the Federal Funds Rate, which is published every month by The Conference Board.
Raising rates will have an impact on the markets. Raising interest rates will cause the dollar to appreciate over the Euro, which means the pair EUR/USD will decline, which is good for the U.S dollar.
If Chairwoman Janet Yellen sends out a dowish signal on Thursday, it may help to boost stocks and undermine the dollar. Investors will pay less attention to gold and allocate more of their capital into equities.
A hawkish message, including a rate increase, may help unpin the dollar and undermine stocks and gold. So, the upside will be limited for gold in both scenarios, unless we see a massive selloff in equities and the dollar.
Changes in monetary policy will ultimately cause currency exchange rates to change, and paying close attention to the news and analyzing the actions of the Fed (in this case) is vital for forex traders.
The interest rates impact currencies because the greater the rate of return, the greater the interest accrued on currency invested and the higher the profit. So how can you profit on it? The strategy is very simple, but also very risky. You can simply borrow currencies with a lower interest rate in order to buy currencies that have a higher interest rate, and this strategy is known as carry trade.
The shift in interest rate represent a monetary policy-based response as a result of economic indicators that assess the health of the economy. Most importantly; they possess the power to move the market immediately. So, how healthy is the U.S economy?
Nonfarm Payrolls is up: 215K
May, June Revisions: 14K
Unemployment Rate: 5,3%
Avg. Hourly Wages: 0,2%
Labor Force Participation: 62,6%
Consumer Price Index: -0,1%
A key measure of inflation dropped 0,1% last month for the first time since January due to sliding gasoline costs, and this is something for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) on its policy meeting Wednesday and Thursday this week.
Central bank leaders have said they want to be confident inflation is heading toward their 2 percent target. Low inflation is a sign of economic weakness, and raising rates too soon risks harming the economic expansion.
IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the World Bank have asked the Fed to delay its first-rate hike since 2006.
The world`s financial watchdog is the BIS (the Bank of International Settlement) and are considered the «bank of central banks». BIS has warned that a Fed rate hike could have a huge effect on the global economy and particularly in emerging markets.
According to a BIS report, much of the global financial system remains anchored to U.S borrowing rates, and a rate hike at home tends to have an impact on higher rates in other economies. The enormous amount of debt in the emerging markets has the potential to move the markets even with a small rate hike.
Everybody knows that sooner or later, a rate hike might be necessary. No matter the results in the financial markets will be. Some belive the Fed will hold off on raising rates until December.
I really look forward to Janet Yellen`s speech on Thursday at 2 p.m. Washington time.
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