Is this the end of the bull market?

Japan`s Nikkei is down 3,1%, while the broader Topix is down 2,3%. Nikkei is at its lowest since Dec 18, trading at 15,422,40. It is the biggest drop since Aug 7. The Yen rose after a weaker than expected U.S payrolls report.

European stocks are all down so far today. They are all disappointed about the earnings and outlook about profit growth. The S&P 500 slid yesterday 1,3% after a number of companies posted weak earnings or forecasts.

J.P Morgan Chase & Co are reporting earnings today. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Dec 2013. Consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1,31. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $1,39.

Wells Fargo & Company is also expected to report earnings today. Consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0,98. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0,91.

Tomorrow Bank of America Corporation is expected to report earnings, and the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is £0,27. Last year it was $0,03. We look forward to see the numbers tomorrow.

Other reports: Tesla (TSLA) Feb 19, Nokia (NOK) Jan 23, Facebook (FB) Jan 29, Google (GOOG) Jan 20, Apple (AAPL) Jan 22, and Amazon (AMZN) Feb 04.

Remember: Stock prices follow earnings, but now they all seem to pay more and more for the same penny of earnings. The S&P 500 rose about 20% last 12 months. This cannot continue. When P/E is soar to much you know that we are at the end of a bull market.

The analysts estimated at the end of September last year that S&P 500 companies would grow earnings by 9,6% in Q4, 2013. Now they say it will grow by 6,3%. This a drop of only 3,3%. Usually it is an average of a drop of 5,8%. They are probably too optimistic?

This can be set for a major disappointment. Investors don`t like lower-than-expected profit growth. So, the companies have to deliver, or the stock prices could drop fast.

We know it is an obvious disconnect between the underlying economic data and the companies outlooks and that is a critical factor. The recent GDP report point to an economy that is accelerating. That means more economic activity and that means more sales and profits for the companies!

News today: Retail Sales & Import Prices at 8:30am at Business Inventories at 10:00am.

 Dow 14.01.2014

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

1 Comment

Filed under Stock market, Stocks

One response to “Is this the end of the bull market?

  1. This is due to global fluctuation in stock prices and FDI investments strategies. But we have to see to next weak and make our strategies accordingly.

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