Tag Archives: Earnings

by | January 10, 2014 · 2:20 pm

U.S. nonfarm payrolls data

Yesterday we saw another mixed trading session, and today market participants will wait for the job report at 08:30 ET. The U.S stock index futures is up before the data that shows us that American employers last year added the most workers since 2005.

It is probably added 197,000 jobs in December, which means 2,27 million jobs in 2013 and that will be the strongest year in 8 years. The unemployment rate remain at a five-year low, landing on 7% in December last year. A strong report job data today could make the Fed to reduce its bond-buying stimulus and start the day it starts hiking rates.

The Fed will have a new meeting at Jan 28 – 29. In December they announced that they will reduce its monthly bond-buying program with $10 billion. The reason why they pay $75 billion instead of $85 billion is the recovery in the labor market. The QE program they started has helped the S&P 500 to reach a new high from a 12-year low in 2009.

Market makers will look at earnings numbers now. Many retailers will probably deliver good fourth quarter reports, but what about the banks? Next week we will see reports from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Group and JP Morgan Chase & Co. That will be interesting numbers.

A slow start in the stock market so far in 2014 have boosted gold prices. Gold ended a 12-year bull run and lost 28% of its value last year. Economic data has showed us that the U.S economy is gaining steam. If the number today exceeds investors expectations, gold will probably go to $1200 or below.

Important news today: Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate at 8:30am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 25, 2013 · 2:06 pm

Earnings

Japan`s Nikkei tumbled -2,75% today. Nikkei suffered the biggest one day loss since august, hit by yen`s strength against the dollar. Investors tend to fear that tight credit conditions in China will put the brakes on the world`s second largest economy. The rest of the Asian markets are also a little bit down. The european market is also a little bit down. Seems like the strong Euro hurts the earnings. Gold is up 1,2% to $1.346,60.

You have probably seen the father and son drama over Netflix stake? Billionaire investor Carl Icahn mean he did the right thing when he sold his Netflix stake, possibly worth hundreds of millions of dollars. But his son Brett, disagree. Icahn acquired Netflix shares for an average price of $58. Netflix shares are now trading at $331,22.

Carl Icahn cut his 9,4% stake by more than half to 4,5%. As I was writing about yesterday about risk/reward and how to buy stocks earlier, Icahn have, for all I know already decided when to go out and sell.

It will be interesting to see who of them, father or son, who was right. Anyway, It`s never wrong to take some profit. If the stock plummet, Carl Icahn can buy more. If the stock continue to go up, he still have 50% of the stocks in Netflix in his portfolio.

Earning came in yesterday. Here is some of them:

Microsoft (MSFT) beats estimates and shares rise +5,8% AH. EPS of $0,62 beats by $0,08. Revenue of $18,53B (+16% Y/Y) beats by $740M.

Zynga (ZNGA) beats Q3 estimates and shares soar. Up +11,3% AH. Q3 EPS of -$0,02 beats by $0,02. Bookings of $152,1M (-40% Y/Y) beats by $8,4M.

Samsung investing in Corning (GLW) +20,7% AH. Full Q3 results arrive on Oct. 30. GLW is taking full control of the Samsung Corning LCD glass JV. 43%-owned by Samsung Display. The Company says it expects to report Q3 revenue of $2,1B (+10% Y/Y) and EPS of $0,33.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 9, 2013 · 11:41 am

Earning seasons

Earning seasons are upon us, and as you know; stock prices follow earnings. So, whats driving the markets is corporate profits, but that`s also the key to a dropdown. To make the S&P 500 go up 1 percent, you need to have a profit of $1 billion.

That is not what happend during the dot-com bubble. That`s why the markets plummeted. Now, it is a match of the index/stock prices and the profits (after tax). Normally, it goes up and down within a trendline. When we hit the roof, we will often see a correction. Looking at the correlation between the index and the profits right now, it isn`t something wrong with the bull market.

October means earnings begins to roll out and gives the traders a huge trading opportunities. Concur technologies Inc (CNQR) took the Wall Street by storm with the earnings and revenues last time. The volume skyrocket, and so did the stockprice.

We are at the all time high and it will be interesting to see the earnings comming in now. I think the picture will be mixed, but if the shutdown continue in the long run, it may affect the GDP and the earnings, which means you know how Q4 will be?

I often look at the commodity prices and I follow copper very closely. Copper are trading up and I often see the copper price together with the 10 day moving average. The price is on target of the 10 MA and tells me a lot about the demand for this commodity. The gold price is also on target for  the 10 MA.

News to have a look at today is Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, 10 Year Note Auction 1:01pm, FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00pm. I look forward to hear from the FOMC meeting. I have added two charts today. Copper and Gold compared to the 10 day MA.

Copper 10MA

Gold 10 MA

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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