The new economy will intensify

Have a look at Radio Shack (RSH). Price: $0,24. Wow, pretty impressive eh? A very cheap stock you think, but no way. Radio Shack said to file for bankruptcy yesterday (chapter 11). I wrote about Radio Shack in an article called «retailer dead», 11th March, 2014, so this is no surprise. RadioShack have $1,2 billion in assets and $1,39 billion in debts. As widely expected: RadioShack is finish. Sorry shareholders. Everything is lost.

What`s going on? What we see now is just the start of a new era; The new economy. This is something we talked about in the late 90`s and early 2000`s. everybody was talking about the new economy at that time, and investors bid up stock prices to unprecedented highs.

v

You all know the end of that history. The investors didn`t look at macroeconomic factors at that time, and it all blew up to a gigantic bubble. A tech bubble. And that bubble has long since burst. Since then many companies have remained very innovative.

Many companies in the new economy are heavily involved in the internet and biotech industries, and the ripple effects of the new technologies has spread out to all other industries as well. But obviously not to Radio Shack.

When I wrote about the retailer dead in my article last year, Radio Shack was down -38,5%. I said they were doomed, and things have changed. It`s all about time and money. Why take the bus to the shop in town and buy a product that is twice as expensive as the same product on Amazon, Ebay, Best buy or Wal-Mart?

I also wrote about it in 2013. This will affect other shops like Starbucks, and their sales was declining in the holiday season in 2013, and this is just the beginning. I think we will see this trend spread all around the world. Fast.

RadioShack`s business model failed last year and they had no reason to open the doors and throw good money after bad money. The time is over for RadioShack. Just like Mervyn`s, who had 189 stores in 10 states. Mervyn`s was the eight-third largest retailer in the U.S based on 2005 revenue. Many of the company`s stores were in shopping malls.

Mervyn`s closed the doors December 31, 2008, but the Morris family having bought back intellectual property rights to the company in 2009. They are planning to relaunch Mervyn`s as an internet-based enterprice. The new economy is here.

It is the high-tech tools like internet and powerful computers which is penetrating the consumer and business marketplace that really drives the new high growth industries. The tools are getting better and better. Add sharing economy and driverless cars to this and the new economy is here to stay.

If your shopping mall in your town is crowded today, it may change tomorrow. At one time it can be more employees than customers, and bookstores are the first to fail. Clothing chains will follow, consumer electronics stores, air-ticket booking offices and in the future; bank branches and other traditional services facilities will follow. The impact from online sales is massive.

Alibaba`s Jack Ma said they have created 14 million new jobs. McKinsey said the shift online could contribute up to 22 percent of the China`s productivity growth by 2025 and make up 7 percent to 22 percent of the total increase in GDP from 2013 to 2025.

Clashes between the old and new economies will intensify.

 


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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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GoPro after the bell tonight

GoPro is set to announce the results of its holiday quarter after the bell tonight, thursday 5th, 2015. What can we expect from the action-camera maker this time?

GoPro peaked at $98,47 in September last year and have been falling since the correction. Just like Twitter. The stock is down 46,6% and about 14 million shares were shorted as of Jan 15.

Citi has cut its GoPro target to $59 from $94. The stock is trading at $52,56 right now. Shorters have flocked to the equity with about 29% of GoPro`s float sold short. Also two-thirds of covering analysts rate the stock a «hold» or worse. 12-month price target consensus is $79. That`s 54,1% premium to current trading levels.

gopro-hero4-black

GoPro equities is down, recently hit by Apple`s new action-camera patent. Despite the negative cuts and short interests right now, the success of GoPro`s hardware business remains robust.

Last quarter GoPro came in with an earnings per share of $0,69. A growth of about 55%. Consensus from the Wall Street for earnings and revenue is $0,70 per share and $580,3 million. The stock jumped 13% last time when they released a stong guidance for fourth quarter sales of $550 to $580 million.

I wrote about GoPro before their IPO last summer, and when they went public they said that GoPro is a «media» company. What? A media company? Yes, they said so, but I don`t think they are there yet. They do not have any income from that segment, but I am exited about their new report. I will look for some news on this case.

No doubt that YouTube will help the user engagement. So will partnership with NHL, a GoPro channel on Virgin America in-flight entertainment, and channels like LG smart TV`s and Xbox platform. All of they will contribute.

GoPro is developing new consumer drones and this is probably here their R&D is spent? They have doubled their R&D to $42,4 million. The drone market is growing and sales in this market is expected to double to $11,5 billion in the next decade, and that can boost the GoPro shares.

GoPro shouldn`t be afraid of Apple right now. Apple want to reach out to the mainstream market with they products, and those action-camera`s is not there now. Nor GoPro is there right now. Maybe those action-camera`s will never be a mainstream product?

I think the reason for that is many, but price can be one of them. Spending thousands on this action-camera is probably not something for the average consumer and so far it seems like this is mainly something for the pro athletes and other extreme-sports enthusiasts.

One of the most shorted stocks will reports earnings after the bell tonight. Any surprise tonight?

 


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Twitter earnings

Twitter will report earnings after the market close tomorrow, February 5th, 2015. The stock is down since the market correction in october last year. Down about 40%. Investors are concerned about slower growth, and estimates are as low as they`ve ever been compared to the Wall Street consensus.

The estimates this time will come in-line with Wall Street expectations, rather than beat by a few cents per share as investors have gotten used to. Last quarter was not a good one for Twitter. The stock dropped down -13% as Twitter posted an earnings miss against the investors. They disappointed with MAU`s guidance.

twitter logo bird

It`s very important for a company like Twitter to have a lot of followers being active, and Twitter had 284 million monthly user accounts at the end of the third quarter. That`s 23% up year over year. By comparison, Facebook had 1,39 billion monthly active users (Q4). That`s an increase of 13%.

User activity is more important than billions of users on your platform. How many have a Facebook account, but don`t use it? This is why MAU is so important. Timeline views increased 14% YoY, but timeline views per MAU`s fell 7% last quarter, and that doesn`t matter so much as investors will watch the interaction between active users and timeline views.

Twitter are focusing more on «ad revenues per thousand timeline views» as others have different measures like revenue per user. Target marketing can be easier on Twitter than Facebook as the platform is for the pro`s, and it will be difficult to compare Facebook and Twitter on this case.

Facebook will have more appeal for the masses than Twitter. Twitter is better used for news and financial services and I`m in doubt that Twitter can build a mainstream platform like Facebook did over years. Expectations for Twitter is probably too high?

Twitter traded at $30 last summer and that`s close to its IPO price, but it have bounced and look like a growth stock right now.

Timeline views is $4,28 in the U.S and $0,84 outside the U.S, and advertising revenues per thousand timeline views increased by 83% YoY on Q3. It came in at $1,77.

The caution in the estimates this time may be a positive for Twitter than it were for Facebook last week. Small earnings beat could be a catalyst to the upside. Investors are looking for 88% revenue growth this quarter which is down from the triple digit gains Twitter has posted since its IPO. Earnings are expected to come in at 6 cents per share, which is all time high.

Twitter, tomorrow after the market close, February 5th, 2015.

 

 


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Renewable energy is the future

The crude oil is back above 50, up over 3% today. A great bounce for oil stocks as well, and it can go back up to about $70 – $75 a barrel, but this can be temporarily. The demand and supply look like the same as it was in 1986, boss Bob Dudley (BP) said to Bloomberg today.

Technically it seems like the oil price has peaked and that a hundred years old oil rally is over, but it all depends on what happens in the world. After the oil slumped in 1986, it came back again during the Iraqi war in 1990, but I don`t hope a new war will turn the price up again this time.

Yesterday I talked about Apple which is the best luxury brand in China right now. Apple is also the biggest company in the world. This is simply because they are selling Internet of things (IoT). It will be the biggest sector ever. It will become about 40 times bigger than internet. But what about the energy sector?

crude-oil

Oil have been the black gold for decades and ExxonMobil (XOM) have been the worlds biggest company before Apple took that place. The biggest oil companies like ExxonMobil, PetroBras (PBR) and total (TOT) are still big, but at some point they will end up writing off tens of billions of dollars worth of standard assets in their oil fields.

The plunge in the price of oil is more than Opec`s attempt to bankrupt U.S oil shale drillers and to destabilize the petro-economies of rivals Iran and Russia. It`s gonna take some time to fill up the world with battery driven cars, but we will also see a new era for solar and wind energy.

This world need to prevent catastrophic climate change, and that`s why we need to act now. Climate change today is fundamentally a development issue, not a pollution problem.

The new shift will probably take place in a few years from now and alternative energy will go through a «phase change» from fringe to mainstream. It`s still early in the stage, and that`s why you don`t hear about it in the media anymore.

It will be a sharp shift and standard assets of coal, oil and natural gas will turn the global economy up side down. First Solar (FSLR) can be one of the biggest in the solar sector and many others are ready. Look at Denmark. They gets 40% of their electricity from wind, while Texas gets 30%.

This is just piece of cake compared to what we will see in the future, when 5 cent/kilowatt-hour solar becomes standard pricing around the world. I wrote about Solar City in January 2014. They are a little bit bigger than First Solar, and I belive in that company in the long run. Up +11% on monday.

What goes up, must come down. Right now it seems like the oil price is moving up again, but once the market starts to discount the end of the fossil fuel era, the crash is just around the corner, and big oil companies like ExxonMobil will lose more than half their current value.

It is when the solar prices is cheaper than fossil fuels it will overwhelm the markets, and that will be a revolution in the making. A technological phase change from oil to solar. From oil to solar and wind power, and that`s gonna overwhelm the energy markets.

The energy movement will be massive. It is when prices goes down to about 4 – 5 cents/kwh the new shift will come, but it may take some time.

Solar-Wind is an owner of 184,6MW of solar and wind projects assets, and they has set a $19 – $21 price range for its 8,7 million shares IPO. Ticker is set to be SLWD. This is a valuation of $200 million. The YieldCo planed cash distributions of $26 million ($1,30/share) in 2015.

TerraForm`s (TERP) successful IPO could bode well for Sol-Wind. The SunEdison YieldCo remains up 30% from its $25 IPO price in spite of the huge selloff seen in solar stocks in recent months.

TAN Guggenheim

If you`re not familiar with stock picking, I suggest you look at Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN). As you can see from the chart above, there has been a big selloff in the solar sector, but this sector will come back again, but it is very early right now. TAN is up +4,79% so far today.

The Prime Minister in India, Narendra Modi reiterated plans for the country to install as much as 100 gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity by 2022. President Obama stated that the U.S will stand ready to speed this advancement with additional financing. China has 33,4 gigawatts installed. They are undergoing a photovoltaic expansion that targets 100 gigawatt capacity by 2020.

Personally, I love clean and renewable energy!

Green energy is the future.

 


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Apple is the best luxury brand in China

Apple is the biggest tech company in the world and have the greatest brand in the West. The latest report told us that Apple sold more phones like never before. A big brand in the West, but how is the brand doing it in China?

The Hurun Research Institute released the Hurun Best of the Best Awards 2015 (http://www.hurun.net/en/ArticleShow.aspx?nid=9604) last week, based on the results of the Hurun Report Chinese Luxury Consumer Survey 2015. This report shows us that Apple beats Lous Vuitton, Hermes, Gucci, Chanel, Dior and Samsung in a survey of China`s wealthiest shoppers.

Apple is now ranked as China`s most coveted luxury brand!

Think different

This is a survey from the individuals whose net worth is above 10 million RMB or $1,6 million. Apple is on top for both men and woman, and is the preferred brand for gifting by China`s richest. Hermes was the winner last year, and Burberry and Prada dropped out of the Top 10 list this time.

Best Brand for Gifting by Men

Brand         % of respondents
1   Apple    20,30%
2   LV         13,40%
3   Gucci   6,80%

Hurun Report Chairman and Chief Researcher Rupert Hoogewerf said, “The government’s crackdown on luxury gifting continues to have its effect, with luxury gifting down a further 5% year on year, taking it to 30% over two years. Travel retail continues to change the dynamics of luxury in China, with 7 out of 10 luxury goods bought by Chinese now being bought overseas.”

Best brand for gifting by woman
Brand             % of respondents
1   Apple       18,90%
2   Chanel     13,20%
3   LV             10,20%

The preferred gift for Chinese millionaires for men is Watches, overtaking red wine as a category. Red wine had a bad year, and dropped down to third. Second on the list is consumer electronics, as travel vouchers continues to show a strong rise for the third year running.

A little bit different at the woman list, as Jewelry is at the top of the list and (of course) Fashion took the seconds place, followed by consumer electronics. Watches is the most wanted product as a gift in China, and this is good news for Apple as they are planning to launch their new watch soon.

Spring Festival, widely known as Chinese New Year in the West, is the most important traditional festival, and most important celebration for families in China. Most Chinese have 8 days off work, and the Chinese New Year starts on Thursday 19 february and end on 5 March.

2015 is the year of the goat.

«The upcoming Chinese New Year would be the peak of gift giving in China,» Hurun research said, and Apple has become the most eye-catching gift brand this year.»

 


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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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