Yahoo is for sale – what about Twitter?

Everybody believed in tech stocks in the late 90`s and some investors were buying tech share with both hands, but you all know what happened. The tech bubble burst, just like all bubbles do. Many of the tech companies lost everything they had and so did its investors.

But some survived and one of them is Yahoo. You know what Yahoo is right? Well, I know what Google is. It is a search engine. And Apple is iPhone, but what about Yahoo? What is it? What I know right now, is that Yahoo is for sale.

More than 10 bids is on the table and some of the bidders are Verizon and YP Holdings. Yahoo`s CEO Merissa Mayer has not succeeded after a three-year turnaround and «sale» is a top priority for Mayer. What about Twitter? Are Jack Dorsey in the same boat?

 

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Twitter is trading at about $17 which is well below its IPO price of $26. Its market cap is now $11,77 billion, and Twitters MAUs has formerly plummeted. That is not music in investors ears. They expect more than that.

If you compare Yahoo with Twitter you can see that Twitter is much more than Yahoo which is nothing without its huge stake in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan. So, if you take away Alibaba and Yahoo Japan, there is nothing left. Twitter has so far more than that.

Investors must realize that Twitter is more like LinkedIn Corp. A niche company. LinkedIn Corp is valued at about 6 billion more than Twitter but it would be difficult for them do be the next Facebook I think.

Twitter`s User growth is not looking good. Since 2013, the user growth have plummeted, and the company do many things to turn around the ugly trend, but that is very expensive. Twitter paid less than $10 million for the digital right to NFL games, which is very reasonable given the $20 million that Yahoo paid last year.

In comparison, CBS/NBC paid $450 million for the same 10 games, but Twitter feed is essentially a rebroadcast of CBS/NBC games with ads. The drawback for Twitter is that of the 70 ads throughout the game, it can only sell 15-20.

Twitter sounds like a NFL team to me. If it goes the wrong way they start to fire the coach. It nothing happens, they will do the same again and hire a new one. Twitter have had 6 heads of products in 6 years and 3 CFO`s in 4 years, and three heads of engineering in 3 years. Wow!

Im not so shure that the people are the problem at Twitter. The user growth is declining and their platform have about one billion inactive users. Im not shure what Steve Ballmer think about the company but fire Jack will not change Twitter`s core business and niche product.

They can continue to spend money on NFL games to attract new users but that is a risky and expensive strategy and in the long run they can end up being a new Yahoo were Jack Dorsey will end up just like Merissa Mayer.

Twitter is expected to report earnings on 26 April after the bell, and the report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2016. EPS is expected to come in at $-0,13 which is worse than last quarter at $-0,2.

It`s time to jump around and make a change.

 

skjold5

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The 400th anniversary of William Shakespare`s death

Tomorrow, it is 400 years since William Shakespeare died on 23 April 1616. He is interesting because he is considered to be the greatest writer in the English language and the world`s pre-eminent dramatist.

He was an English poet, playwright, and actor, and he is often called England`s national poet, and the «Bard of Avon». I wrote about Julius Caesar on March 15 earlier this year, and this is a date to remember thanks to William Shakespeare.

«Beware the ides of March», William Shakespeare said, and that is why people around the world always remember the assassination on Julius Caesar on March 15. This year, the 400th anniversary of the playwright`s death, celebrations will commence in the United Kingdom and across the world to honour Shakespeare and his work.

 

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Shakespeare was born in Stratford-upon-Avon, Warwickshire, in 1564. He wrote at least 37 plays and collaborated on several more. His 17 comedies include A Midsummer Nights Dream and The Merry Wives of Windsor. Among his 10 plays are Henry V and Richard III. The most famous among his 10 tragedies are Hamlet, Othello, and King Lear. Shakespeares best-known poems are The Sonnets, first published in 1609.

Shakespeare produced most of his work between 1589 and 1613, and his early plays were primarily comedians and histories, and these are regarded as some of the best work ever produced in these genres.

He then wrote mainly tragedies until about 1608, including Hamlet, Othello, King Lear, and Macbeth, considered some of the finest works in the English language.

In the 20th and 21th centuries, his works have been repeatedly adopted and rediscovered by new movements in scholarship and performance. His plays remain highly popular, and are constantly studied, performed, and reinterpreted in diverse cultural and political contexts throughout the world.

Shakespeare signed his last will and testament on 25 March 1616, the following day his new son-in-law, Thomas Quiney was found guilty of fathering an illegitimate son by Margaret Wheeler, who had died during childbirth.

Thomas was ordered by the church court to do public penance, which would have caused much shame and embarrassment for the Shakespeare family. Shakespeare died on 23 April 1616, at the age of 52.

He died within a month of signing his will, a document which he begins by describing himself as being in «perfect health».

No extant contemporary source explains how or why he died.

Shakespeare was buried in the chancel of the Holy Trinity Church two days after his death. The epitaph carved into the stone slab covering his grave includes a curse against moving his bones, which was carefully avoided during restoration of the church in 2008:

Good frend for Iesvs sake forbeare,
To digg the dvst encloased heare.
Bleste be  man  spares thes stones,
And cvrst be he  moves my bones.

(Modern spelling: Good friend, for Jusus’ sake forbear,/ To dig the dust enclosed here. / Blessed be the man who spares these stones,/ And cursed be he that moves my bones.)

 

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Sometimes before 1623, a funerary monument was erected in his memory on the north wall, with a half-effigy of him in the act of writing. Its plague compares him to Nestor, Socrates and Virgil. In 1623, in conjunction with the publication of the First Folio, the Droeshout engraving was published.

Shakespeare has been commemorated in many statues and memorials around the world, including funeral monuments in Southwark Cathedral and Poets’ Corner in Westminster Abbey.

Shakespear`s romantic Merchant of Venice, contains a portrayal of the vengeful Jewish moneylender Shylock, which reflects Elizabethan views but may appear derogatory to modern audiences.

After the lyrical Richard II, written almost entirely in verse, Shakespeare introduced prose comedy into the histories of the late 1590`s, Henry IV, parts 1, and Henry V. His characters become more complex and tender as he switches deftly between comic and serious scenes, prose and poetry, and achieves the narrative variety of his mature work.

This period begins and ends with two tragedies: Romeo and Juliet, the famous romantic tragedy of sexually charged adolescence, love, and death, and Julius Caesar (based on Sir Thomas Norths 1579 translation of Plutarchs Parallel Lives) which introduced a new kind of drama.

according to Shakespearean scholar James Shapiro, in Julius Caesar «the various strands of politics, character, inwardness, contemporary events, even Shakespeare`s own reflections on the act of writing, began to infuse each other.

Many critics belive that Shakespeares greatest tragedies represent the peak of his art. The titular hero of one of Shakespeares most famous tragedies, Hamlet, has probably been discussed more than any other Shakespearean character, especially for his famous soliloquy which begins «To be or not to be; that is the question».

Unlike the introverted Hamlet, whose fatal flaw is hesitation, the heroes, of the tragedies that followed, Othello and King Lear, are undone by hasty errors of judgement. The plot of Shakespear`s tragedies often hinge on such fatal errors or flows, which overturn order and destroy the hero and those he loves.

In Othello, the villain Iago stokes Othellos sexual jealousy to the point where he murders the innocent wife who loves him. In King Lear, the old king commits the tragic error of giving up his powers, initiating the events which lead to the torture and blinding of the Earl of Gloucester and the murder of Lears youngest daughter Cordelia.

 

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In Macbeth, the shortest and most compressed of Shakespear`s tragedies, uncontrollable ambition incites Macbeth and his wife, Lady Macbeth, to murder the rightful king and usurp the throne, until their own guilt destroys them in turn.

In this play, Shakespeare adds a supernatural element to the tragic structure.

Shakespeare was not revered in his lifetime, but he received a large amount of praise. In 1598, the cleric and author Francis Meres singled him out from a group of English writers as «the most excellent» in both comedy and tragedy.

By 1800, Shakespeare was firmly enshrined as the national poet. In the 18th and 19th centuried, his reputation also spread abroad. Among those who championed him were writers like Voltaire, Goethe, Stendhal and Victor Hugo.

 

skjold5

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The Search giant can soar thanks to a growing number of searches and YouTube

I have been watching Google since day one. The stock price was around $50 in 2004, but take a look at it now. The stock price is nearly $800! What a ride since 2004, and it doesn`t want to stop any time soon.

The name Google is still there and people are familiar with that name, but for traders, the new name is Alphabet Inc. A newly founded holding company for the Google group of businesses. Under the new operating structure, its main Google business will include search, ads, maps, apps, YouTube and Android to name a few.

Analysts have upgraded their price target to $930 per share.

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In addition to YouTube and Play, they will benefit from Enhanced Campaigns and other products like app install ads and higher ad loads on mobile and desktop SERP. Cloud on top of that can make greater and greater contributions in the future.

The internet behemoth came out with incredible Q4 2015 results. Earnings per share increased 26% and their sales went up 19%. And we are not talking about a small-cap company. We are talking about a company with a market cap of $538 billion! Can you belive that?

The fourth quarter release was the first to break out Alphabet`s Other Bets division, made up of self-driving cars, health care, Google-X and smart homes, among other things, which grew 37% YoY. In addition to YouTube and Play, search and programmatic advertising is the drivers for Alphabet.

The stock market had a terrible start of the year and investors are not expecting a good first quarter. According to FactSet, Companies in the S&P500 are projected to report a 9,1% decline in first quarter profits. That would be the worst YoY decline since 2009.

But some companies will continue to rise up, and I think Alphabet is one of them.

Alphabet can beat-the-Street with positive earnings results on Thursday. The Search giant can soar thanks to a growing number of searches on mobile devices and the continued success of YouTube, plus keeping a lid on costs.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $8,03 compared to the Streets expectation for $7,92. Revenue are estimated to come in at $16,612 billion vs. the sell-sides $16,499 billion. Since last report, estimates have only increased by 2% on the bottom-line and 1% on the top. Compared to the same period last year this represents a projected 22% for EPS and 19% for revenues.

Alphabet Inc will report on April 21, after the bell.

skjold5

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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It`s expected to see a BIG drop in Goldman`s revenue

Goldman Sachs is founded by Marcus Goldman in 1869 in New York City. It`s an American multinational investment banking firm that engages in global investment banking, investment management, securities and other financial services primarily with institutional clients.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc is expected to report its fist-quarter results on Tuesday before the bell.

 

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Its expected to see a big drop for Goldman Sachs this time. According to analysts, the revenue will come in at $6,73 billion and thats much worse than last years $10,6 billion for the Wall Street company.

Earnings per share came in at $5,94 in the same period last year, but now it is expected to see a profit of «only» $2,45. Other banks and money makers have been warning investors to be prepared for disappointing results at Goldman`s first quarter earnings this time.

The stock peaked at about $233 in 2007 and shares of Goldman are still at about the same level as it was ten years ago. That`s much better than the other big Wall Street banks. Goldman looks more stable.

Goldmans shares are trading at $158,8 and the stock has been declining since June 2015, and Mr. Blankfeins options will probably be worthless when they expire in november this year. Is Blankfein doing a bad job?

Goldman`s book value has increased every year the last ten years. Despite a lot of challenges, the bank increase about five percent last year. The problem for the bank is that the business of investment banking is not a good business anymore. Banks are entering a new era.

Their annualized return on equity is set to be under 7% and less than half what it was last year. Banks need a 10% return on equity to cover their cost of capital and Goldman will probably not reach that level any time soon.

According to Reuters, Goldman is expected to earn $7,6 billion in any of the next four years, so it makes sence for the bank shares to trade at the bank`s current 10% discount to book value.

Along with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs is one of the worst performers on Wall Street so far in 2016. The Fed raised its policy interest rate from a range of 0,00% to 0,25% to a range of $0,25 to 0,50% and that should be profitable for the banks. But we haven`t seen any sign of that yet.

 

sam

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Morgan Stanley can see a drop in equity underwriting fees which is down 55% YoY for the entire industry

Morgan Stanley peaked at nearly $90 in 2000 and 2007, and then it dropped down to about $9 in 2008. Now, Morgan Stanley is trading $25,77, down -0,40 or -1,53% on friday. The bank will come out with its first-quarter 2016 results on Monday before the opening bell.

Morgan Stanley is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company provides a variety of products and financial services to a group of clients and customers, including corporations, governments, financial institutions and individuals.

 

morganstanley

 

We saw a huge sell-off in the financial markets in January and February and as a result, investors didn`t come back to the market before march. But that was not enough to offset the decline recorded in the prior two months.

Morgan Stanley`s trading income declined, and this put a pressure on its fixed-income, currency and commodities (FICC) trading income. They had a trading weakness last year and reported lower FICC trading income for the fist time in the second half of 2015, and the trend is expected to continue.

According to Reuters, equity capital markets activity totaled $110,8 billion during the first quarter, and that is down 56% YoY. It`s also interesting to see that the data projected a 55% YoY drop in equity underwriting fees for the entire industry.

Morgan Stanley`s equity underwriting fees are bound to be lower this time, and the company drops from one to the third position among the equity capital markets underwriters during the quarter.

M&A is also slowing down, which is down 24% in the first quarter to $4,4 billion and this will be reflected in lower strategic and sponsor related revenues. M&A is slowing down after three consecutive YoY growth. (Maybe Yahoo can fix that a little bit?)

M&A advisory fees has declined 18% YoY, and Morgan Stanley held the second spot during the quarter, projecting to earn about $492 million in advisory fees in Q1. That`s up from $471 from last year.

Low interest rate will hamper all the U.S banks interest income growth and so will it be for Morgan Stanley, but a pick up in consumer and commercial loan demand will aid the company`s interest income.

Morgan Stanley will be out with a report on Monday followed by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday and their trading performance is expected to be better than investors had feared. Q1 was a poor one the three big banks and YoY falls in net income came to 7% at JPMorgan, 13% at Bank of America, and 27% at Citi.

Morgan Stanley has embarked on «project Streamline». In January, they announced that they will aim to shave $1 billion from its cost over two years by cutting staff,, simplifying processes and paying less in legal fees. They axed 1,200 staff in December.

According to Reuters, The U.S Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said on Friday they had reissud their letter from earlier this week to Morgan Stanley about the bank`s «living will», or plan for a bankruptcy that would not rely on federal aid, because of a technical error.

«The feedback letter for Morgan Stanley has been re-issued du to a drafting error that labeled a weakness as a deficiency, rather than a shortcoming,» said Federal Reserve spokesman Eric Kolling. «The hange has no impact on the firm or the required remediation.»

The first quarter is traditionally the strongest for the big Wall Street banks. How is it this time?

Morgan Stanley is scheduled to report first-quarter results at 8:30 EDT.

 

sam

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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