Category Archives: Stocks

by | April 23, 2014 · 2:00 pm

Earnings estimates

Positive earnings continue to lift the markets higher and the S&P traded higher for the 6th consecutive day. The S&P ended up 7,5 points and are the only major index to be in positive territory so far in 2014.

Russel 2000 is the worst index wich is down -0,6% YTD. Nasdaq is down -0,4% YTD and DOW is currently down -0,04% YTD. Netflix (NFLX) beat earnings expectations and traded up +7% yesterday. It is a buy signal in Netflix, but I will wait to see the next 4 trading sessions to be convinced.

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Look out for Apple`s (AAPL) earnings report later on today. The report will released after the market close today. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Mar 2014. Consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $10,21. Up from $10,09 last year. Market cap: 473,8B. Apple Inc is the world`s largest company by market value.

Facebook (FB) will release an earnings report after the market close today. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Mar 2014. Consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0,18. Up from $0,09 last year. That is 100%! Market cap: 121,93B.

Also Logitch International S.A (LOGI) will report earnings after market close today. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Mar 2014. Consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0. Up from $-0,09 last year. Market cap: 2,43B.

Yum (YUM) is the owner of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell fast-food chains. The stock climbed 2% yesterday to $79. Profit rose 72 cents to 87 cents according to a statement yesterday. It was estimated 84 cents a share on average.

Their performance of its China division is strong. Operating profit grew 80% in China. The China Division opened 123 new units in the first quarter. Fast food giant McDonald`s Corp (MCD) reported a 5% drop in first quarter profit that missed analysts` estimate.

The next days are the most important of the earnings season. Many big companies are trying to beat the estimates. Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat the estimates tomorrow? They will continue supporting the Nokia X platform.

What about Google (goog)? Will they suffer from Android Open Source Project smartphones? Microsoft will probably use some of its tons of Android licensing money to undercut Google-approved Android phones.

Other earnings reports to look for: Tesla (TSLA) May 14. Ebay (EBAY) Apr 29. Twitter (TWTR) May 07. This is only a few stocks to watch out for among many other interesting U.S stocks to look for the next days and weeks.

Reports today:
9:45 a.m EST Flash Manufacturing PMI
10:00 a.m EST New Home Sales
10:30 a.m EST Crude Oil Inventories

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 22, 2014 · 2:23 pm

Gold slid

European stocks are all up today. FTSE 100 is up +0,90%. CAC 40 is up +0,66%. DAX jumps +1,06%. Commodities are going in the opposite direction. They`re all in a red territory. Copper down -0,58%. Silver -0,64%. Crude Oil (brent) -0,31% and gold is down -0,17%.

Gold

Many hedge funds are lowering their bullish bets on gold. As things are looking better in the U.S and Europe, the demand for the precious metal remain non-enthusiastic. The reason is that both economies are gradually improving.

Most hedge funds are fund of funds. Those hedge funds are massive money pools and they move the money from fund to fund. It depend on the best hedge funds the last few months. If one of the funds are doing it bad, they simply dump it and move on to another one.

All the hedge funds must make money every month and many of them have a short-term strategy. Those hedge funds do not pay much attention to fundamentals and this is a big reason why program trading became a dominant force over the past decade.

Many of those funds are massive money funds and a few of them can move the market. Most of the moves is short-term moves, but they will all jump on the wagon once the god prices are going up again.

Many Asian and European markets were closed yesterday due to the Easter holiday and the Russia-Ukraina crises has de-escalated right now. That`s why the markets have been so light now. Lack of fresh bullish news makes the gold go down. This is technical selling and some investors say you have to be bold to own some gold now.

The fear is down as the VIX slid yesterday -0,82% to 13,25. The last top of the VIX was in September 2011 as it reached 47. This is good for the stock market and the U.S markets seems to open up today.

Take a look at Netflix today. It will skyrocket! What about the home sale recovery. Is it strong or weak? Look for the reports at 10:00 a.m today. It`s even more interesting tomorrow: earning reports from Apple, Zynga and Facebook.

Reports today:
10:00 am EST Existing Home Sales

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 9, 2014 · 2:12 pm

IMF – Economic Growth

 

In a report yesterday, IMF (International Monetary Fund) said the GDP (gross domestic product) in U.S increased 1,9% last year. The U.S will accelerate to 2,8% expansion in 2014, and 3% nest year. Stronger growth in U.S in 2014 and 2015 will help the world economy withstand weaker recoveries in Emerging markets.

Nadag 08.04.2014

(Chart: Nasdag Index, April 8, 2014)

JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co are reporting earnings this week. The largest aluminium producer Alcoa posted first quarter earnings yesterday. They started the earnings season kick off after the close yesterday.

 

Alcoa have historically been the unofficial kickoff to quarterly earning season. Revenue of $5,45B (-6,5% Y/Y), misses by $100M. EPS of $0,09 beats by $0,04. Alcoa shares is up +2,39% AH. CNBC`s Jim Cramer is bullish on First Solar, and the stock soared 6,7% yesterday.

 

After its worst three-day drop since 2011, Nasdaq rose yesterday +0,81%. It`s interesting to see that most of the tech stock jumped yesterday. LinkedIn jumped +5,92%. Google +3,12%. Facebook +2,18%. Tesla +3,83% and Netflix +3,22% to name a few.

 

But there is one stock that slid yesterday; Twitter. Down -1,58%. The stock is trading at $41,78. Let me put it this way: I am not surprised! They have changed the profile page and look like their rivals Facebook and Google+, but that is not enough to boost its shares I think.

 

Yen rose yesterday as the Japanese equities fell. Yen rose the most since August 2013. European stocks advanced today and its all in a green territory. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up 0,2%, retracing all of Tuesday`s fall.

 

The appetite for stocks was boosted by a recovery yesterday, but I think it is time to be cautious. I`m not buying stocks with both hands right now. The crisis in Ukraine has flared up again, and the earning season has started again. I will follow the report earnings that is coming the next weeks.

 

Reports today:

 

10:00 a.m EST Wholesale Inventories m/m

10:30 a.m EST Crude Oil Inventories

1:01 p.m EST 10-y Bond Auction

2:00 p.m EST FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | April 7, 2014 · 2:01 pm

Sell off on friday

A big drop for U.S tech stocks on friday. Nasdaq was down -2,60% on friday. S&P 500 -1,25% and the Dow -0,96%. Nikkei is also down today, together with the other Asian markets. Nikkei is down -1,69%.

Europe is also down today. Stoxx 50 is down -0,89%. FTSE 100 -0,71%. CAC 40 -0,72% and DAX -1,24%. At the same time, you can see the commodities trading down too. Gold is down -0,16%. Silver is down -0,33%. Crude oil (Brent) -0,95%, and Copper -0,13%.

Nadaq

(Nasdaq: Apris 4, 2014)

Many investors have talked about the valuations in the tech stocks for a while now, and many predicted a tech bubble was on the way. I wrote about it for some weeks ago, and I said Twitter was the most expensive stock in this universe.

52 Week high for Twitter is 74,73, and the stock traded down -2,07% on friday. Twitter is down about 50% from the top very soon. Marketers are embracing Facebook over Twitter, and they will rather go for Youtube and LinkedIn before Twitter.

Sometimes investors need to take some profit and friday was a great day for that. It seems like the U.S markets will open down today. I`m excited about the trading sessions, not only today, but for the rest of this week. Take a look at the dollar. It`s up!

Tech and biotech is so far the most popular sectors in 2014, but both of them slide now. Many tech stocks are trading down in Europe too. This is a great time for daytraders. I will follow the charts this week before I start my vacation on friday. Easter bunny is waiting.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 1, 2014 · 1:36 pm

AT&T is a long term pick

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a speech in Chicago yesterday that the recovery still feels like a recession to many Americans. The «overall comitment to maintain extraordinary support for the recovery for some time to come» is a strong one, she said.

«The scars from the Great Recession remain, and reaching our goals will take time», she said. U.S stocks moved to session high. S&P 500 up +0,79%. Dow up +0,82% and Nasdaq up +1,04%. It’s all green in Europe today too. All indices are up, but it was mixed in Asia earlier today.

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The biggest U.S phone company AT&T Inc is planning to repurchase 300 million shares (about 6%) on its outstanding stock. AT&T Inc has acquired 775 million shares since 2012. They give itself room to boost shareholders returns and repurchasing 300 million shares would cost about $10,6 billion.

AT&T`s dividend yield is 5,2%. It is expected to see a net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio in the 1,8 range or lower. This is a stock for value investors that offers reasonable dividend yields, low valuations and a solid margin of safety.

The stock has declined in 2013. Down from its high at $39. At&T Inc is now trading at $35,07. Both AT&T and Verizone are dropping but not a huge plunge, but they look worse when compared to the Dow`s gain.

The telecom sector is still unloved, and its all comes down to the never-ending radio spectrum battles. Companies like AT&T, Sprint, Verizone and T-Mobile sit on the losing end of this zero-sum equation.

Sprint investors are ignoring the good spectrum tidings, worried that this idea might be a needless cash flow killer. Building a so-called FirstNet will cost about $7 billion to build and there will be less pressure to make big money on the larger auction of former TV station frequencies next year.

Bad for Verizone and AT&T. Good for Sprint and T-Mobile, and great news and even better for the American people.

Reports today:
10:00 am. EST ISM Manufacturing PMI

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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