Category Archives: Stock market

FOMC statement at 2:00pm

Today I will sit in front of my laptop (not TV), and watch

FOMC statement at 2:00pm.

Capitol hill

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

 

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BIG Apple

The stock markets are sliding down but this is not the end of the world. There ain`t no doubt; the bear is here! Yesterday Nasdaq tumbled -1,08%, while Apple plummeted -7,7% in after hour trading. Dow slid -0,3%.

This is how it probably will be in the stock market now. Up and down, or what we call a volatile market. That`s why it is so important to know about stock picking. How to pick the right stocks, and that`s why I wrote about it last week.

In my opinion; U.S stocks is not cheap, so it is important to know what to do before any decision is made. The European stocks is twice as cheap as the U.S stocks. How is it going with Apple?

Apple reports yesterday:

iphone sales is $32,5B (+6% vs 17% in FQ4).

ipad sales is $11,5B (+7% vs -13%).

Mac sales is $6,4B (+16% vs -15%).

iTunes/software/services revenue is 4,4B (+19%).

iPod sales is only $973M (-55%).

78% of Apple`s cash/investment balance ($159B) is offshore. The iPhone sales is up +40% in Japan. Sales in China is up 20%. Europe is flat, while Americas sales is only +1%. Tim Cook didn`t say much about buybacks in face of Carl Icahn`s ongoing campaign. $7,8B was returned via dividends/buybacks. Apple need to release something new now, and I am not talking about a bigger screen or a different color. I am talking about innovation. Come On Apple: “think different”.

Revenue: $57,59B

FQ1 EPS: $14,50

Expects FQ2 revenue of $42 – $44B.

How is the inflation? It is rising, but it is difficult to see it. Some people expect inflation and some expect deflation. Both camps see increase in general prices like visible money and credit prices. Hyperinflation is expected, but deflation is probably the biggest problem in the future in the long run. I think Janet Yellen will push the QE-button if the deflation ghost is here. As you can see; despite the QE programs, the growth is so far very slow.

If the Fed starts its tapering, how will that affects the emerging markets? Half of the global GDP comes from the emerging markets, and that moves the other markets in the rest of the world.

It seems like money is on the way back to emerging markets as the Fed announces their tapering. Let`s wait for the FOMC statements later on this week.

Reports today: Core DurableGoods at 8:30am, S&P/CS Composite at 9:00am, CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00am.

Apple

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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American shale revolution

Asian markets slid today and Europe is trading down too, but U.S seems to open up today. This week will be very interesting. I think many investors are nervous now, as day traders love this volatile markets. It was a nice move for day traders on friday.

Not a good week for stocks last week. S&P had its worst week since 2012. Dow fell 318 points alone on friday. Will this sell off continue? A lot of earnings report are coming out this month. Janet Yellen is the next Fed chairman from february 01, but the next BIG news is the FOMC statement on Wednesday at 10:330am. Pay attention to this.

The U.S montly trade deficit was at its lowest in four years and that is because of the American shale revolution. That`s good news from a new report I was reading this weekend. This is good news for the growth, jobs and for the country.

Libya is in disarray and Iran and Iraq are thumbing their noses at Saudi Arabia by pledging to break OPEC’s 3 million bpd quota. This is bad news for OPEC, and if this is the new trend, this is very good news for America.

People are scared now before the FOMC statement on Wednesday. That`s why we see the sell-off now. What a power they have. Everything they say will move the markets, so what are the news on Wednesday? What about the tapering?

Safe-heaven currencies like Swiss franc and Yen slid today as the dollar surged. If the Fed starts to reduce its monetary stimulus this week, the U.S dollar will continue to rise. That will hit the Emerging markets currencies.

Reports today: New Home Sales at 10:00am.

oil-shale

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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Picking stocks

Now it is time for investors to do their homework. How do you find the right stocks? How do you find the best stocks? What is the magic number? First of all; you must know what makes a stock good and other stocks bad. So, what is the magic numbers?

Finding great stocks is not so difficult as you think. Unfortunately, the magic numbers doesn`t exist. But it is some metrics you have to look for that is more important than others. I often start to look at a company’s ROA (return on assets).

ROA (return on assets)

This is the leading measure of a company`s effectiveness. It tells you how effective the management are using the assets. ROA tells you what earnings were generated from invested capital (assets). It is best to compare a company`s ROA with the previous ROA numbers, or you can compare it with a similar company.

Definition of Return On Assets – ROA

An indicator of how profitable a company is relative to its total assets. ROA gives an idea as to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. Calculated by dividing a company’s annual earnings by its total assets, ROA is displayed as a percentage. Sometimes this is referred to as “return on investment”.

The formula for return on assets is:

ROA = Net Income/Total Assets

Note: Some investors add interest expense back into net income when performing this calculation because they’d like to use operating returns before cost of borrowing.

Both debt and equity is the company`s assets and they are used to fund the operations of the company. The higher the ROA number is, the better it is. In this case, it tells you that the company are earning more money on less investments and that is a sign of an effective company.

For example:

Company A has a net income of $2 million. Total assets is $5 million. ROA is 40% (2/5 = 40%).

Company B has a net income of $2 million. But the assets is twice as much as Company A, which is $10 million. ROA is 20% (2/10 = 20%).

Who is the best? Company A have a higher ROA than Company B, which means Company A is better than Company B. It is because Company A is better to convert its investments into profit.

This is why investors sometimes want to change a company’s leader, because they are not satisfied with their earnings. The leader and a company`s management are doing a very important job. Not only for their company and their employees, but also for the investors and not at least the society. It`s all about makes big money with small investments. That`s it.

Also remember that ROA is often referred to as ROI, and we add the interest expense to ignore the costs associated with funding those assets. So, ranking company’s by size is meaningless. It`s interesting to know the size of a company, but ranking companies by size of their assets is completely meaningless. It`s better to look at ROA and how a company is better than another to squeeze profit from its assets, regardless of size.

ROA is far away from being the ideal investment tool. The return numerator of net income can be suspect. Assets as we know, is also numbers that is valued in the balance sheet.

You can`t always compare companies with ROA, because the assets is not what it seems to be. You can`t see people, ideas, trademark, brands or patents in the assets. A grocery have more assets than an online techno company. The techno company`s assets will be understated, and it`s ROA may get a questionable boost. Two of the worlds biggest company`s is Apple and Exxon Mobile. You can`t compare them. Two different comany`s in two different industries with two different assets. Appel`s ROA is 19,3, while Exxon Mobil`s ROA is 10. 

All in all; ROA makes it easier for investors to recognize good stocks and minimizing the risk of doing a bad investment with bad stocks.

No major reports today.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Salesgrowth

What is the revenue of all these social media companies? Snapchat say they have 400 million snaps per day, and Pinterest say they have 1,5 million pins per day. Wow. It sounds like they both are big companies. Are they? Snapchat has been valued at $2 billion with about 30 million active users.

What about Facebook? They also have a lot of users, but how many of them is active users? And what about Twitter? Nasdaq is now trading at 4197,58. Last time Nasdaq was trading at about 4000 was in 1999. You all know that the dot-com-bubble bursted in year 2000.

Today I want to show you an overwiev of the media companies. Who is the biggest, and who have the biggest growth? You know it is more easy for small companies to have a huge growth than the big one, so don`t look at the growth isolated.

Below you will see a list of 15 different companies in the media online business. The first list is a list with the companies with the best growth. No matter what the market cap is. Take a look at the list below, which is a list that compares the sales growth in 2013.

Company Salesgrowth Market Cap
Qihoo 360 Technology 106,20% 9,88
Youku Tudou 76,80% 5,12
Yelp! 67,50% 4,63
LinkedIn 60,10% 25,58
Facebook 51,70% 137,17
Baidu 47,40% 60,94
Tencent holdings 4,80% 119
Sohu.com 32,2 2,76
Yandex 28,60% 13,89
Sina 28,1 5,52
Google 13,90% 371,74
Groupon 8,00% 7,62
Pandora Media 0,00% 5,26
Yahoo! -0,60% 40,58
Zynga -27,00% 3,18

The blue shows the companies with salesgrowth in plus, and the yellow, shows the company which is in status quo. Red speak for them selves. Take a look at Zynga. Salesgrowth last year was down -27%.

Next list is about the market cap where Google is the biggest. Take a look:

Company Salesgrowth Market Cap
Google 13,90% 371,74
Facebook 51,70% 137,17
Tencent holdings 40,80% 119
Baidu 47,40% 60,94
Yahoo! -0,60% 40,58
LinkedIn 60,10% 25,58
Yandex 28,60% 13,89
Qihoo 360 Technology 106,20% 9,88
Groupon 8,00% 7,62
Sina 28,10% 5,52
Pandora Media 0,00% 5,26
Youku Tudou 76,80% 5,12
Yelp 67,5 4,63
Zynga -27,00% 3,18
Sohu.com 32,20% 2,76

No major reports today.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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