Category Archives: Stock market

Consolidation since March

It was a good day for U.S stocks on friday. The Dow up +0,27%, S&P 500 +0,37% and Nasdaq +0,52%. Japan`s Nikkei is down today -0,64%, while Hang Seng is almost flat -0,04%. Copper is up +0,75% today, while Silver advance +1,14%. Gold is up +0,61%,Crude Oil (brent) is up +0,33%.

European stocks are in a red territory so far today. Stoxx 50 -0,57%, FTSE 100 -0,32%, CAC 40 -0,17% and DAX is down -0,35% so far today. Investors are waiting for the next Governing Council meeting on June 5 in Frankfurt.

It is expected that ECB (European Central Bank) will ease policy. The reason why this is expected is mostly because of what`s been saying in May 8 meeting. Draghi said that policy makers are «dissatisfied» with the inflation outlook and «confortable with acting next time».

Some speculate that it will cut the benchmark rate by 10 basis points to 0,15%, and the deposit rate, which is at zero. Denmark ended its experiment with negative rates last month. ECB`s inflation goal is just under 2%, but the inflation is below 1%.

The inflation has been below 1% since october and the Euro is strong. The currency has risen more than 7% against the dollar since early July 2013. The Euro climbed as high as $1,3993 on May 8, right after Draghi spoke. EUR is now trading at $1,3719.

Take a look at S&P 500 Large Cap Index.

SPX 19.05.2014

Many bulls and bears are frustrated. They are both waiting for the index to move, but the SPX have been in a consolidation for many weeks and months now. It all started in Mars this year. Investors are not waiting for consolidation, but rather correction. That`s why they are frustrated. The SPX is flirting with 50MA, which is at 1867,88.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Cash flow or Price earnings (P/E)?

 

I have written about Price Earnings ratio earlier, but Cash flow ratios are a better measurement of a stock`s value than P/E. When you read about stocks in the media, you only read about a company`s P/E, and never about a company`s cash flow.

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Cash flow is the money that is moving (flowing) in and out of your business in a month.

 

If more money is coming in than is going out, you are in a Positive cash flow situation. Voila, you can pay your bills. If more money is going out than coming in, you are in a danger of being overdrawn.

 

Company`s in trouble typically need working capital in form of a loan or line of credit to cover shortages in cash flow. Sometimes customers are not paying at the right time of purchase. It may take some time in B2B business, and that can be a problem for some companies.

 

Knowing the number about a company`s P/E is good, but knowing a company`s cash flow is better. You have probably heard about how much cash Apple Inc have, and how much cash a company can generate tells you about its health.

 

P/E ratio represents the ratio of the stock`s price to its earnings per share (EPS). It is important to know about a company`s P/E. You can hear about it in the media daily, even if the P/E is high or if the P/E is low.

 

Many investors seem to overlook the importance of cash flow, and rather only look at the P/E. It is much better and more important to look at a company`s price relative to its cash position. Therefore; look at the cash flow.

 

It`s simple: without cash, you won`t last long. As a private person, you probably know how that is? We live in a world of capitalism, and what are you gonna do without capital? There is a long list of companies that failed because cash was in too short supply.

 

But how can you see if a company is over or undervalued, which is the same purpose of P/E? Two measurements shed light on a company`s valuation.

 

Price to Cash flow

You determine the price to cash flow by dividing the stock`s price by cash flow per share. The use of cash flow instead of net income is the reason why many investors use this measurement. You can find net income in computing EPS.

 

You will see that the company have more cash than the net income figure indicates, because the expenses don`t involve actual cash.

 

Free Cash flow

Divide the current price by the free cash flow per share. The result gives you the value the investors places on the campany`s ability to generate cash. It describes how much cash the company generated in the trailing 12 months.

 

Just like P/E, you can see where the market values the company. Lower numbers relative to its industry and sector suggest the market has undervalued. Higher numbers than the industry and sector suggests the market has overvalued the stock.

 

It`s easy to find the numbers and don`t worry, because you don`t have to do the math by yourself. You can simply go to a web site with these valuation numbers and look for your company`s cash flow numbers.

 

You should never use only one measurement, because it`s not as simple as that and it doesn`t tell you the whole story. You must see the bigger picture. Look at other metrics to verify relative value, but cash flow can give you the clues to how other investors values a stock.

 

Reports today:

 

08:30 a.m EST PPI m/m

08:30 a.m EST Core PPI m/m

10:30 a.m EST Crude Oil Inventories

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Human Capital

 

I watched Eurovision Song Contest on Saturday. Denmark was the winner last year, so the show was sent from Copenhagen live on Saturday. They had a great song last year and followd up with a great song on Saturday too. Once the Danish song started I thought to my self that I have heard the song before.

220px-YouToMeAreEverything

Basim represented Denmark on Saturday and Basim and the rest of his crew did a great gig, but the song called Cliche love song is a plagiat. I mine opinion, this song should be banned, but NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT! Have a listen to the song and make up you mind. Click the link below.

Basim – Cliche love song

This song is similar to a great hit from a group called The Real Thing. They had their first hit on the UK charts in July 1976, with the song called You to me are everything. This was on top for three week in the U.K but peaked at nr 64 on Billboard top 100. It didn`t reach the top in the US because the flood of the coversongs. Have a listen to the link below:

 

The Real Thing = You to me are everything

 

Have a listen to both songs and make up you mind. It is very similar. You can listen to them on the headphones made by Dr Dre`s company called Beat Electronics which is in talk with Apple Inc. Nobody understand why Apple is trying to buy Beat Electronics but it is probably something there which is not released yet.

 

In addition to the brand I think Apple is buying knowledge like Dr Dre and the music mogule Jimmy Lovine. Apple is not buying the physical products, but the brand and a human capital. This is the future of the business. How much is a brain wort? How much is an idea worth?

 

Facebook did the same when they bought WhatsApp. What did they really buy? Not the physically app, but the brand and the human capital. The question is how much is it worth? I really look forward to the value of the app WhatsApp. What about Beat Electronics? Apple want to compete with Spotify and start a streaming business, because iTunes sales are declining.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Filed under Stock market, Stocks

Wait and see

 

Japan`s Nikkei ticked down -0,19% to 14,457,51. The broader Topix was flat at 1,182,48. European stocks were also flat today. S&P 500 will open a little bit up today. Many investors are in a «wait and see mood».

 

The ISM services (The Institute for Supply Management`s Service sector Index) came out and showed pretty good growth, and I think that was a surprise for many investors. Apple shares are also up +1,4% at $600,96. Apple Inc closed above the level for the first time since October 26, 2012.

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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac gained with good help from the activist investor William Ackman. Fannie Mae was up 3% at $4,10 while Freddie Mac was up 6,3% at $4,23. B/E Aerospace jumped 9,3% to $97,22. That`s a great jump only on rumors.

 

5 billion shares changed hands on U.S exchanges and that is well below the 6,7 billion average for the last five sessions. Draghi and ECB is on hold and many are looking for any sign the ECB could embark on U.S style QE (Quantitative easing). They will wait for some time.

 

The rally in the Euro currency and the declining U.S dollar index today are helping to limit selling pressure in gold and silver. The U.S dollar index fell to a six-month low overnight. The Russia-Ukraine tension are still high with no major developments.

 

Gold is now trading at $1,314,40. Gold is weaker but still above $1,300.

 

 

Reports today:

08:30 a.m EST Trade balance

05:30 a.m EST FOMC Member Stein Speaks

 

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Filed under Commodities, Stock market, Stocks

It is a time for caution

 

Gold is back above $1300 to 1,312,00. Silver is up +0,69€ to $19,68. Crude oil (brent) is trading at $108,61, while Copper is down -0,37% to 305,85. Not any big moves for the commodities so far today.

 

Japan`s Nikkei Index is down -0,19% to 14,458. ASX 200, Shanghai and Sensex 30 is all up, while Hang Seng is down -0,28%. European stocks are declining on Chinese Manufacturing Report today.That report indicate a further deterioration of growth into the second quarter.

caution

The rising tension in Ukraine is adding to investors reduced risk appetite. The confrontation between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists intensified over the weekend. According to Roubini, Ukraine could tip Europe back to recession.

 

Momentum stocks are declining but other stocks are rising. Go find the right stocks and protect yourself. It`s all about getting in the right thing at the right time. It is a dangerous market, so you have to know what to do right now.

 

The only time in history we have seen stimulus like now is in the 30`s, when Roosvelt expanded the federal government to stave off the great depression in 1937. Roosvelt took away the stimulus and the investors didn`t like that much.

 

The same thing happened in 2000. The same argument was made that while Tech was in a bubble, but the rest of the market was not. They didn`t care. Many of the tech companies was real bubbles in 2000, but now many of them are making serious money.

 

That`s why it is difficult to compare the tech stocks and the possible bubble we have now and back in 2000. Anyway: it is time to be cautious. It is very dangerous out there and may of the stock are too expensive.

 

Reports today:

10:00 a.m EST ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Filed under Stock market