I want to follow up my article from yesterday. It`s about Germany which has a huge problem with GDP at -0,1. Aging population. Lack of innovation, investments, R&D, and growth. But Germany is not the only country with problems like that.
Many countries in the world have the same problems. But there is a great solution to this problem, and Paul Krugman wrote about it in his book, «The Age of Diminished Expectations.» He said; «Productivity isn`t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.»
Productivity is a foundation of prosperity, and the only way a country can raise its standard of living sustainably is to produce more with existing or fewer resources. You cannot do that without improving productivity. It`s that simple, Gita Bhatt wrote in an article at IMF.
We know that productivity must play a more important role in driving sustained growth as our societies age. But there`s no consensus on how to reverse the broad slowdown in productivity growth seen across almost all countries over the past 20 years.
Especially vexing is the sluggish growth of what economists call total factor productivity. A way of measuring how efficiently businesses turn capital and labor into output. The part that basically captures innovation and technology.
Slower gains in total factor productivity account for more than half the deceleration in economic growth since the global financial crisis, IMF-analysis shows. Another decade of weak productivity growth could seriously erode living standards and threaten financial and social stability.
Small companies can drive productivity gains, writes the University of Chicago`s Ufuk Akcigit. He shows how small firms are more innovative relative to their size, suggesting that they use R&D resources more efficiently.
As companies grow and dominate their markets, they often shift to protecting their market position, rather than fostering innovation, he said.
Policies matter too. Measures should encourage more effective reallocation of resources away from low-productivity firms and support smaller businesses and start-ups. Not just large incumbents. This could include targeted tax credits, grants for early-stage innovation, workforce retraining, and policies that encourage competition and reduce barriers to entry for new players.
Understanding productivity growth more fully is crucial because it plays such an outsize role in economic growth, which, as Daniel Susskind of King`s College London writes; also demands a renewed approach to help improve people`s lives.
Ultimately, as Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps writes; a productive society should allow people to enjoy «mass flourishing» from the grassroots up.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
For decades, Germany was synonymous with economic strength. Ever since World War II, it enjoyed the so-called «Wirtschaftswunder,» or economic miracle that followed the postwar recovery, which blessed Germany with almost four decades of high growth.
High growth thanks to German engineering, and manufacturing industries. The economic growth eventually slowed down, but Germany had established itself as the industrial heart of Europe, fueled by exports of products with large margins like cars machinery, and chemicals.
Companies like Volkswagen, BMW, Siemens, and BASF became global leaders with German products seen as pinnacles of quality and reliability. As a result of all that, people in Germany enjoyed high salaries, and high quality of life.
Their economic model was built on a few key pillars; strong manufacturing base. A highly skilled workforce, commitment to quality, and very strong exports. But this has come to an end. Last year, Germany was the only G-7 economy to shrink. It`s also the group`s slowest-growing economy with a growth to GDP at -0.1%.
It goes up and down. Down -0,5, up 0,1, down, 0,1, up 0,2, down -0,4, up 0,2, and then down again to -0,1.
Picture: Old economy vs New economies
Germany, long considered the economic engine of Europe, is currently facing significant challenges, leading to concerns that its economy may be stalling or «broken.» What in the world is happening in Germany, and what are the key factors that are affecting their economy right now?
It`s an energy crisis. Germany was dependent on Russian Gas. Germany relied heavily on Russian natural gas before the war in Ukraine. The subsequent sanctions and supply disruptions have led to a severe energy crisis, pushing up prices and harming energy-intensive industries like chemicals, manufacturing, and heavy machinery.
They also have a green transition challenge. Germany is trying to transition to renewable energy, but the shift away from nuclear and coal has left the country vulnerable during this energy crunch. This has increased costs for businesses and households, causing slower growth.
Germany`s economy is heavily reliant on exports, especially in industries like automotive and machinery. Global demand has softened, and supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic continue to affect production.
The German auto industry, in particular, has been slow to transition to electric vehicles compared to competitors like Tesla, and Chinese manufacturers. This lag is putting pressure on a key pillar of the country`s economy.
Germany`s economy narrowly avoided recession in early 2023, but growth remains sluggish. High inflation and low consumer spending have contributed to weak economic activity. The combination of rising wages, energy prices, and inflationary pressures has increased production costs, leading to reduced profitability for businesses.
On top of that, you have an aging population. Germany`s population is aging rapidly, and the working-age population is shrinking. This is leading to labor shortages in key sectors and higher social welfare costs, creating long-term economic challenges.
In addition; they have migration struggles. While the country has relied on immigration to fill gaps in the labor market, recent shifts in public sentiment and policy restrictions have made it harder to sustain this approach.
Their biggest companies have been there for about 100 years, but there is a shift in the market. Germany has been criticized for lagging behind in digitalization and innovation, particularly in fields like AI and tech start-ups. This is reducing its competitiveness in the global economy.
Another problem is Germany`s heavily regulated business environment and complex bureaucracy. This can stifle innovation and make it harder for new businesses to scale up.
Like many others, Germany has trade challenges and the global demand is weak. As the global economy faces uncertainty, especially with China`s slowing growth, demand for Germany`s exports has dropped.
Germany`s economic model has long been dependent on strong export markets, so this is a major issue!
At least; EU Tension. Economic divergence within the European Union, especially between northern, and southern European economies, adds another layer of complexity, affecting Germany`s trade relations within the bloc.
It all started in France. Yellow Vest protesters went to the streets for months and years and protested against higher oil prices, electricity bills, and expensive toll stations. Their standard of living was shrinking.
This happened at a time when Donald Trump was cutting taxes and made the best economy in the U.S. ever. People in France asked for a Trump-like figure, but everything has gone straight up since then, and now we see severe problems in Germany and other places.
Picture: Yellow Vest protesters against high oil prices and low standard of living
This is happening at a time were productivity in the U.S. is great. Germany`s productivity is down -0,1%, while the productivity in the U.S. is up 3%. They are the best. They are at the top of the list! Even better than China! And the stock market goes up. Wow!
Germany`s economy is not «broken,» but it is facing severe challenges. Energy costs, inflation, global demand weakness, and structural issues in key industries like manufacturing are causing slower growth.
Long-term concerns like demographic changes and lagging investment in innovation also threaten future competitiveness. While these challenges are significant, Germany has strong economic fundamentals and could recover with strategic reforms and investments.
However, the current climate is tough, and the country is at a critical point in addressing these issues. Germany is in trouble.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Donald Trump is warning all the American citizens about the Democrats and Kamala Harris. Trump played a clip from Kamala Harris` Oprah interview at a North Carolina rally. During Kamala Harris` recent interview with Oprah, a few moments stood out for their controversial nature.
One of the most notable comments was Harris admitting that she owns a gun and saying; «If somebody breaks into my house, they`re getting shot.» This blunt statement surprised Oprah and many viewers.
Some also criticized Harris for appearing out of touch when she discussed a $50,000 tax deduction for small businesses, which Oprah jokingly dismissed as «a tiny business,» further stirring online debates.
Oprah`s reaction to Kamala Harris during her interview seemed mixed, especially when Harris made some blunt remarks, like discussing her gun ownership and self-defense.
While Oprah didn`t explicitly express shock, her surprise was evident in her body language and responses, particularly when Harris spoke about small business tax deductions and made more direct comments on abortion and self-defense. Oprah`s lighthearted pushback, like calling a $50,000 tax deduction «tiny,» reflected moments where she seemed taken aback by Harris` statements.
Kamala Harris has faced criticism from various political commentators and the public, with some labeling her as «childish» or «empty» in terms of substance. These critiques often stem from her public speaking style, where her remarks can sometimes appear overly simplistic or filled with awkward laughter.
For example, her tendency to repeat basic talking points in interviews and speeches has led some to feel that she lacks depth on complex issues.
Opinions on her leadership vary widely, and while some view her as progressive and compassionate, others perceive her as lacking the gravitas expected of a vice president. Her approach to policy and communication is ineffective, and she`s too weak for a role as a representative of the U.S. This is not how a cheerleader acts. This is absolutely embarrassing. For the U.S., and for the free world.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Former Clinton adviser Mark Penn has called for an internal investigation into ABC News following the 2024 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Penn raised concerns that the debate may have been rigged in favor of Harris.
He cited the moderators` disproportionate fact-checking of Trump while allowing Harris to go unchallenged on multiple occasions, creating an impression of bias.
Penn suggested ABC should hire an independent law firm to review internal communications to determine if there was an intentional effort to manipulate the debate outcome. He emphasized that the network`s moderators fact-checked Trump extensively but failed to scrutinize Harris`s claims, despite allegations that she made several false statements.
Penn also noted Harris`s close personal connections with ABC executives, adding to the suspicion of favoritism.
This criticism has come from both Republicans and some Democrats, and Trump himself said he would not participate in any more debates due to what he perceived as unfair treatment.
So far, there is no credible evidence to suggest that any debate, including one involving Donald Trump and Kamala Harris was rigged by ABC or any other network. Allegations of rigged debates are often raised in highly charged political invironments, but such claims typically lack substantiation, but an investigation could give us an answer.
In the U.S., presidential debates are organized by the Commision of Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-partisan organization. Networks like ABC or others that air these debates follow CPD guidelines, and the debate format, moderators, and rules are agreed upon by the campaigns in advance.
The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in 2024 drew 67,1 million viewers in the U.S. Despite the high viewership, the debate was met with significant controversy, particularly due to claims of bias in the moderation.
Viewership for presidential debates has historically fluctuated, with key factors like the candidates involved and the political climate influencing audience size. In comparison, the first debate in 2020 between Donald Trump and Joe Biden drew about 73 million viewers.
This is nothing compared to the most-watched U.S. Presidential debate ever; the debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on September 26, 2016, which attracted 84 million viewers.
This broke the previous record held by the 1980 debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, which drew around 80,6 million viewers.
The 2016 Trump-Clinton debate`s record viewership was attributed to the high level of interest in the polarizing candidates and the intense political climate. It was broadcast across multiple networks and also streamed online, though the 84 million figure only accounts for traditional TV viewership.
But people can see and hear and make up their own minds, and if they see something unfair, they will react. That`s exactly what people are doing. And this is exactly why the trust in media is declining.
Trust in legacy media has seen a significant decline over the past 20 years. According to Gallup, trust in mass media (newspapers, TV, radio) has dropped from around 55% in 1999 – 2001 to about 32% in 2022.
This decline has been gradual but became more pronounced in the past decade, especially during and after the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, when media credibility was increasingly questioned.
Around 55% of Americans said they trusted the media «A great deal» or «a fair amount,» in 2001. This number fell to 32% in 2016, largely fueled by political polarization. In 2022, trust hit a near-record low at 32%, with trust among Republicans being particularly low (just 14%) and Democrats at 70%.
Pew Research Center also reported a consistent decline in trust, especially among younger audiences and Republicans. They found that in 2021, only 26% of Americans said they trusted national news organizations «a lot» or «somewhat.»
The decline is attributed to factors like increased political polarization, the rise of social media, and widespread perceptions of bias or sensationalism in traditional news outlets. This decline has created a trust gap, where many Americans now turn to alternative media sources or social media for information.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Kamala Harris has been advocating for measures that some describe as attempts to control prices, particularly in response to inflation and rising costs of living. Specifically, she has proposed a federal ban on «price gouging,» which is intended to prevent companies from excessively raising prices on essential goods, such as groceries, during times of crisis.
Capitalists do not like this idea and claim that Harris and the Democrats are Communists. So, why did we spend so much time and money to end the Cold War if we want to control the prices like a Communist country?
During the Cold War, price gouging was a phenomenon that was observed primarily in capitalist countries, particularly during times of crisis, but the context in which it occurred and how it was addressed varied significantly between capitalist and communist states.
In communist countries (Eastern Bloc), price gouging as understood in capitalist terms was less common due to the centrally planned economies. Prices were typically set by the state, not by market forces, and essential goods were often heavily subsidized to ensure affordability for all citizens.
However, this system led to other problems, such as shortages and black markets, where goods could be sold at much higher prices than the official state prices.
In the Soviet Union, for example, shortages of consumer goods often led to long queues and the emergence of black markets where items were sold at inflated prices. While this wasn`t «price gouging» in the traditional capitalist sense (since it was not sanctioned by the market but rather occured outside the official economy) it was a response to the inefficiencies of the planned economy.
In these countries, the official rhetoric condemned profiteering and exploitation, which were seen as capitalist vices. However, the reality of scarcity and black markets meant that some forms of price manipulation and gouging did occur, though they were illegal and contrary to the ideals of the communist system.
In capitalist countries (Western Bloc), price gouging was most notable during economic crisis or emergencies. For example, during the oil crisis of the 1970s, gasoline prices in the United States surged dramatically, leading to accusations of price gouging by oil companies.
Similarly, during natural disasters or periods of scarcity, prices for essential goods could skyrocket. These instances were often met with public outcry and, in some cases, government intervention to cap prices or punish those who were seen as taking advantage of the situation.
The U.S government occasionally imposed price controls to prevent gouging, such as during World War II, and in the 1970s during the Nixon administration, which introduced price freezes and controls to combat inflation and prevent excessive profiteering.
The Cold War era thus illustrates the challenges both systems faced in managing the distribution and pricing of essential goods under different economic models.
But the Cold War is history. So, why are we talking about price gouging now?
It all started in 2018 in France. The Yellow Vest protesters were primarily protesting against the rising cost of living. The movement began in November 2018 as a grassroots protest against a proposed fuel tax hike, which many people felt disproportonately affected low-income and rural citizens who rely on cars for transportation.
The protest quickly grew into a broader movement against economic inequality, high taxes, and the perception that the government was out of touch with ordinary people. They shouted at Trump and his policy; lower taxes, peace, prosperity and freedom.
Legacy Media thought that the protesters were Right-Wing Extremists, but they were ordinary people in all ages. Legacy Media very often turned the picture up-side-down.
The initial trigger for the protests was the announcement of an increase in fuel taxes, which the government justified as part of its environmental policy to reduce carbon emissions. However, many protesters viewed this as an unfair burden on working-class people, particularly those living in rural areas who had few alternatives to driving. In addition, they also increased the cost on toll stations.
Protesters were angry about the difficulty of making ends meet, especially as wages had stagnated while the cost of essentials, including housing and energy, had continued to rise.
So, what is happening in a society when gasolin prices increase? Price on toll stations increase? Energy prices increse? Taxes increase?
The food prices increase.
A study from 2024 showed that oftentimes when allegations of «price gouging» are made, the profit margins of sellers and vendors is substantially lower than critics believe, such as in the case of grocers recently accused of «price gouging» who actually had a 1,2% profit margin after expenses, with Kroger having their highest profits in the previous 15 years occuring in 2018 at 3%.
In March 2024, the Federal Trade Commission accused grocery chains in the U.S. of price gouging. The Commission also sued to block the proposed acquisition of Albertsons by Kroger citing the need for more competition to keep prices down.
In Australia in 2023 and 2024, major supermarket chains Coles and Woolworths received criticism as price gouging, especially in less competitive markets. Coles and Woolworths control 65% of Australia`s grocery market.
A 2022 Working Paper by the International Monetary Fund explores the implementation of windfall profit taxes (higher tax rate on profits), which have gained renewed interest following the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and subsequent surges in energy and food prices.
The paper discusses the potential of such taxes as a tool for efficently taxing economic rents, which are often a result of monopolistic power or unexpected events like pandemics, war, or natural disasters, and contribute to windfall profits. Such profits have raised public and policy concerns about price gouging, where firms are perceived to be profiting excessively from unforseen circumstances.
Price gouging is a pejorative term used to refer to the practice of increasing the prices of goods, services, or commodities to a level much higher than is considered reasonable or fair by some. This commonly applies to price increases of basic necessities after natural disasters.
Usually, this event occurs after a demand or supply shock. The term can also be used to refer to profits obtained by practices inconsistent with a competitive free market, or to windfall profits.
In some jurisdictions of the United States during civil emergencies, price gouging is a specific crime.
Price gouging is considered by some to be exploitative and unethical and by others to be a simple result of supply and demand.
Price gouging is similar to profiteering (unethical) but can be distinguished by being short-term and localized and by being restricted to essentials such as food, clothing, shelter, medicine, and equipment needed to preserve life and property.
In jurisdictions where there is no such crime, the term may still be used to pressure firms to refrain from such behavior. The term is used directly in laws and regulations in the United States and Canada, but legislation exists internationally with similar regulatory purpose under existing competition laws.
It is sometimes used to refer to practices of a coercive monopoly that raises prices above the market rate by deliberately curtailing production. Alternatively, it may refer to suppliers’ benefiting to excess from a short-term change in the demand curve.
Price gouging became highly prevalent in news media in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, when state price gouging regulations went into effect due to the national emergency. The rise in public discourse was associated with increased shortages related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The resulting inflation after the pandemic has also been blamed, at least in part by some on price gouging. During the pandemic, the idea of «Greedflation» or seller’s inflation also moved out of the progressive economics fringe by 2023 to be embraced by some mainstream economists, policymakers and business press.
There is some price gouging-related lawsuits during the COVID-19 pandemic. In response to the issuance of emergency price gouging regulations, multiple state attorneys general and federal agencies have investigated potential cases of price gouging impacting consumers and agencies. Since regulatory measures vary in states, there is no uniform interpretation of price gouging violations, and it is left to state courts to decide.
On August 11, 2020, New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Hillandale Farms, one of the largest U.S egg producers, for allegedly price gouging more than four million cartons of eggs by increasing prices by almost five times during the pandemic.
The lawsuit alleges that the price increases were an effort to profit off of higher consumer demand during the pandemic. To Settle the lawsuit, Hillandale Farms agreed to donate 1,2 million eggs to New York food banks.
As of March 2021, Proskauer Rose counted 42 states that have emergency regulations or price-gouging statutes. Price-gouging is often defined in terms of the three criteria listed below:
Period of emergency: The majority of laws apply only to price shifts during a declared state of emergency or disaster.
Necessary items: Most laws apply exclusively to items essential to servival, such as food, water, and housing.
Price ceilings: Laws limit the maximum price that can be charged for given goods.
Washington state does not have a specific statue addressing price gouging, can nevertheless have sought to apply its consumer protection act to argue that high prices during COVID-19 for PPE was an «unfair» or «deceptive» practice.
Statutory prohibitions on price gouging become effective once a state of emergency has been declared. States have legislated different requirements for who must declare a statae of emergency for the law to go into effect.
Some state statues that prohibit price gouging, including those of Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, and Ohio, prohibit price increases only once the President of the United States or the state`s governor has declared a state of emergency in the impacted region.
The EU does not include «price gouging» explicitly in regulation. Article 102 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union is «aimed at preventing undertakings who hold a dominant position in a market from abusing that position.»
As stated, «such abuse may, in particular, consist in: a) directly or indirectly imposing unfair purchase of selling prices or other unfair trading conditions….»
In 2016, the EU Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager stated that the EU Commission will «intervene directly to correct excessively high prices» specifically within the gas industry, pharmaceutical industry and in cases of abuse of standard-essential patents.
They attack grocery stores with 1,6% profit margin. But what about the oil industry with their profit margin of 30 percent? The Pharmaceutical companies also have up to 30 percent profit margins.
The profit margin in the pharmaceutical industry can vary widely depending on factors such as the type of company (e.g., big pharma, biotech, generic manufacturers), the specific market, and the company’s business model. However, in general, the pharmaceutical industry is known for having relatively high profit margins compared to many other sectors.
For major pharmaceutical companies, profit margins can often be quite high. Net profit margins for large pharmaceutical companies typically range from 15% to 30%. This is due to a combination of high revenue from patented drugs, substantial investment in research and development, and significant pricing power in many markets.
A few large multinational corporations dominate the global oil market, which is characteristic of an oligopoly. This market structure means that while no single company controls the entire market, a small group of powerful companies can influence supply, pricing, and market conditions.
OPEC, made up of major oil-exporting countries, acts like a cartel by coordinating production levels among its members to influence global oil prices. While not a monopoly, OPEC wields significant power over global oil supply and prices by adjusting output based on market conditions.
Allocative efficiency holds that when prices function properly, markets tend to allocate resources to their most valued uses. In turn, those who value the good the most and are able to afford it will pay a higher price than those who do not value the good as much or who are unable to afford it.
According to Friedrich Hayek in «The use of Knowledge in Society» (1945), prices can act to coordinate the separate actions of different people as they seek to satisfy their desires.
Economist Thomas Sowell argue that laws prohibiting price gouging worsens emergencies for both buyers and sellers.
So, let`s hope for a free market unless a crisis occurs.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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