Category Archives: Commodities

by | April 25, 2014 · 2:02 pm

Is this an Amazon killer?

Gold is still below $1300, trading at $1,295,40. Up today +0,37%. Silver jumps +0,73% to $19,58. Crude Oil (brent) is down today -0,43% to $109,86, together with Copper which is down -0,21% to $308,15.

Nikkei was in a green territory today, trading at 14,429. Up +0,17%, also European markets are trading lower today. Investors hate war and some are worried as the Ukraine crisis deepens. The Euro Zone`s blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index slid -0,5% while the DAX is down -1,12%.

amazone

Amazon (AMZN) will open in a red territory today. About -2%. Amazon reported Q1 EPS of $0,23 (like forecast). Revenue for the quarter came in at $19,74 billion. That`s above consensus of $19,42 billion.

Amazon said in a report yesterday that Q2 2014 revenue will drop down to about $18,1 – 19,8 billion versus consensus of $19,03 billion. “We get our energy from inventing on behalf of customers, and 2014 is off to a kinetic start,” said founder and CEO, Jeff Bezos.

The delivery cost has been rising since 2009 and Amazon want to take more control over their increasing cost. With Amazon Fresh, they will deliver the goods direct to the customers and also control their customers shopping experience.

Millions of Amazon customers don`t know this and Amazon is growing at a faster speed than UPS and FedEx who are responsible for shipping the majority of Amazon`s packages. Last mile, as they call it, will revolutionize how shipments are delivered to millions of customers, they said.

Amazon will start to deliver on Sundays in the U.K. This is a smart move I think, because it lowers the cost and make it difficult for their customers in the same market. Like Alibaba who is planning to go public in a very short period of time.

Based on gross trading volume, Alibaba actually outsells Amazon and Ebay combined! They are more than just an e-commerce company. In addition, they now have a banking system without government intervention.

Many will be surprised to hear that this China-born innovator holds around 50% of China`s mobile and online payments market. Alibaba`s payment system is called Alipay and syncs directly with its B2C and C2C commerce sites, Taobao and Tmall. This is impressive.

Last year they entered the banking industry, but how is that possible without China`s government, a communist state that controls loans, interest rates, and all the banking system? It will be a great battle out there when Alibaba enters the U.S market.

Amazon is doing something right with their logistics and service I think, and what customers are looking for is low price and great service, delivered fast. Oops! Did I say low price? That is deflation and we don`t want that, do we?

Reports today:
09:55 a.m EST Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 22, 2014 · 2:23 pm

Gold slid

European stocks are all up today. FTSE 100 is up +0,90%. CAC 40 is up +0,66%. DAX jumps +1,06%. Commodities are going in the opposite direction. They`re all in a red territory. Copper down -0,58%. Silver -0,64%. Crude Oil (brent) -0,31% and gold is down -0,17%.

Gold

Many hedge funds are lowering their bullish bets on gold. As things are looking better in the U.S and Europe, the demand for the precious metal remain non-enthusiastic. The reason is that both economies are gradually improving.

Most hedge funds are fund of funds. Those hedge funds are massive money pools and they move the money from fund to fund. It depend on the best hedge funds the last few months. If one of the funds are doing it bad, they simply dump it and move on to another one.

All the hedge funds must make money every month and many of them have a short-term strategy. Those hedge funds do not pay much attention to fundamentals and this is a big reason why program trading became a dominant force over the past decade.

Many of those funds are massive money funds and a few of them can move the market. Most of the moves is short-term moves, but they will all jump on the wagon once the god prices are going up again.

Many Asian and European markets were closed yesterday due to the Easter holiday and the Russia-Ukraina crises has de-escalated right now. That`s why the markets have been so light now. Lack of fresh bullish news makes the gold go down. This is technical selling and some investors say you have to be bold to own some gold now.

The fear is down as the VIX slid yesterday -0,82% to 13,25. The last top of the VIX was in September 2011 as it reached 47. This is good for the stock market and the U.S markets seems to open up today.

Take a look at Netflix today. It will skyrocket! What about the home sale recovery. Is it strong or weak? Look for the reports at 10:00 a.m today. It`s even more interesting tomorrow: earning reports from Apple, Zynga and Facebook.

Reports today:
10:00 am EST Existing Home Sales

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 9, 2014 · 2:12 pm

IMF – Economic Growth

 

In a report yesterday, IMF (International Monetary Fund) said the GDP (gross domestic product) in U.S increased 1,9% last year. The U.S will accelerate to 2,8% expansion in 2014, and 3% nest year. Stronger growth in U.S in 2014 and 2015 will help the world economy withstand weaker recoveries in Emerging markets.

Nadag 08.04.2014

(Chart: Nasdag Index, April 8, 2014)

JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co are reporting earnings this week. The largest aluminium producer Alcoa posted first quarter earnings yesterday. They started the earnings season kick off after the close yesterday.

 

Alcoa have historically been the unofficial kickoff to quarterly earning season. Revenue of $5,45B (-6,5% Y/Y), misses by $100M. EPS of $0,09 beats by $0,04. Alcoa shares is up +2,39% AH. CNBC`s Jim Cramer is bullish on First Solar, and the stock soared 6,7% yesterday.

 

After its worst three-day drop since 2011, Nasdaq rose yesterday +0,81%. It`s interesting to see that most of the tech stock jumped yesterday. LinkedIn jumped +5,92%. Google +3,12%. Facebook +2,18%. Tesla +3,83% and Netflix +3,22% to name a few.

 

But there is one stock that slid yesterday; Twitter. Down -1,58%. The stock is trading at $41,78. Let me put it this way: I am not surprised! They have changed the profile page and look like their rivals Facebook and Google+, but that is not enough to boost its shares I think.

 

Yen rose yesterday as the Japanese equities fell. Yen rose the most since August 2013. European stocks advanced today and its all in a green territory. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up 0,2%, retracing all of Tuesday`s fall.

 

The appetite for stocks was boosted by a recovery yesterday, but I think it is time to be cautious. I`m not buying stocks with both hands right now. The crisis in Ukraine has flared up again, and the earning season has started again. I will follow the report earnings that is coming the next weeks.

 

Reports today:

 

10:00 a.m EST Wholesale Inventories m/m

10:30 a.m EST Crude Oil Inventories

1:01 p.m EST 10-y Bond Auction

2:00 p.m EST FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | April 8, 2014 · 2:02 pm

Is this the end of the bull market?

Gold is up +0,61% to $1,311,40, and Silver is up +1,02% to $20,11. Crude oil (brent) is up +0,52% to $106,37. Copper is down -0,03% to $303,85. It`s all red in the Euro Zone today, while the indices are little changed.

Spx

(Chart: S&P 500 Index)

Nikkei slid to a two-week low today. The Japanese shares fell 1,4%. The BOJ (Bank of Japan) stood pat on policy after a 2-day meeting, and gains in the yen also hurt the sentiment. It was mixed in the Asian markets today.

Dow seems to open up today, while S&P 500 open in a red territory. EUR/USD is trading at 1,3762. Up + 0,17%. Sectors: Telecoms is down -0,78%. Financials is down -0,43%, while the Energy sector is up +0,02%.

Some investors are scared and want to take some profits now. Other investors see opportunities like some talking heads at CNBC. They belive a «bear case» is almost impossible based on the job data and other economic numbers.

It`s difficult to predict the next move in the market. Other investors say that the stock exchange is more like a casino right now. All driven by robots. Nobody knows where the Easter Bunny will jump!

Reports today:

10:00 a.m EST JOLTS Job Openings
01:30 a.m EST FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
02:45 a.m EST FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | April 7, 2014 · 2:01 pm

Sell off on friday

A big drop for U.S tech stocks on friday. Nasdaq was down -2,60% on friday. S&P 500 -1,25% and the Dow -0,96%. Nikkei is also down today, together with the other Asian markets. Nikkei is down -1,69%.

Europe is also down today. Stoxx 50 is down -0,89%. FTSE 100 -0,71%. CAC 40 -0,72% and DAX -1,24%. At the same time, you can see the commodities trading down too. Gold is down -0,16%. Silver is down -0,33%. Crude oil (Brent) -0,95%, and Copper -0,13%.

Nadaq

(Nasdaq: Apris 4, 2014)

Many investors have talked about the valuations in the tech stocks for a while now, and many predicted a tech bubble was on the way. I wrote about it for some weeks ago, and I said Twitter was the most expensive stock in this universe.

52 Week high for Twitter is 74,73, and the stock traded down -2,07% on friday. Twitter is down about 50% from the top very soon. Marketers are embracing Facebook over Twitter, and they will rather go for Youtube and LinkedIn before Twitter.

Sometimes investors need to take some profit and friday was a great day for that. It seems like the U.S markets will open down today. I`m excited about the trading sessions, not only today, but for the rest of this week. Take a look at the dollar. It`s up!

Tech and biotech is so far the most popular sectors in 2014, but both of them slide now. Many tech stocks are trading down in Europe too. This is a great time for daytraders. I will follow the charts this week before I start my vacation on friday. Easter bunny is waiting.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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