Author Archives: Ket Garden

Sweden has its own JFK case

John Fitzgerald Kennedy (JFK) was the 35th President of the United States. He was the first Roman Catholic president. On May 29, next year, he would have celebrated his 100 year birthday but someone on this planet wanted it different. JFK was assassinated in Dallas, Texas  on November 22, 1963.

Lee Harvey Oswald was arrested the same day and determined to have fired shots that hit the President from a sixth floor window of the Texas School Book Depository. Dallas nightclub owner Jack Ruby mortally wounded Oswald two days later in a jail corridor.

The FBI and the Warren Commission officially concluded that Oswald was the lone assassin, but its report was sharply criticized.

 

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JFK is not the first president to be assassinated. William McKinley was the 25th President of the United States, and served from 1897, until his assassination in September 1901, six months into his second term.

McKinley led the nation to victory in the Spanish-American War, raised protective tariffs to promote American industry, and maintained the nation on the gold standard in a rejection of inflationary proposals.

Sweden has its own JFK case. Prime Minister of Sweden Olof Palme (59) was assassinated in 1986. That`s exactly 30 years ago on Sunday 28, 2016.

Palme was shot twice in the stomach by a lone gunman after exiting a cinema with his wife Lisbeth Palme, whom the assassin shot and missed before fleeing the scene on foot.  The eyewitnesses called the ambulance and the police, but Palme died on the way to the hospital.

The ambulance could only confirm his death, while the police did a remarkably sloppy job, failing to secure and investigate the crime scene for hours. Furthermore, no real attempts to catch the perpetrator were made immediately after the murder.

Christer Pettersson admitted killing Palme in 1988, and he was also identified by Palmes wife. Later on, Pettersson took his confession back, saying he was coerced to do so by the police, and Mrs Palmes evidence was considered insufficient, and Pettersson went free.

Pettersson died in September 2004. He was reported to have confessed to the killing before his death, but the investigation into Olof Palme`s death remains open.

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Conspiracy theories considered the drug addicted and social outcast Christer Pettersson (42) to be a red herring, set up to finally close the case, but his rehabilitation prevented this from happening. He died by supposedly falling from the stairs and suffering a cerebral hemorrhage. The theorists expressed doubts in the accident nature of his injury.

Olof Palme was at the time of his death been accused of being pro-Soviet and not safeguarding Sweden`s interests. Arrangements had been made for a trip to Moscow to discuss Soviet submarine incursions into Swedish waters.

Palme was a social democrat and believed in an open government and shunned tight security. He normally had two bodyguards to protect him on official functions, but not at the cinema in Stockholm, Sweden.

Just like John Lennon and Bob Marley, Mr Palme was against the war in Vietnam, and he became a leading advocate of peace and non violence and campaigned for an end to the war in Vietnam. He will also be remembered as a campaigner for the working classes and Third World causes.

Bob Marley was a political peace activist and wrote the song  ”Get up, stand up.” John Lennon`s name will always be synonymous with peace and political activism, and the song ”Give peace a chance” is a 1969 single.

Lennon’s criticism of the Vietnam War resulted in a lengthy attempt by Richard Nixon`s administration to deport him.

 

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Bob Marley died at the age of 36, while John Lennon died in 1980 at the age of 40. Mark David Chapman shot Lennon in the back four times in Dakota, New York.

Ono issued a statement the next day, saying ”There is no funeral for John”, ending it with the words, ”John loved and prayed for the human race. Please pray the same for him.”

Olof Palme once said; ”I know that the Thatchers and the Reagans will be out in a few years. We have to survive till then.” Mr Palme was Anti-American, and saw himself carrying the banner of Social Democracy through Europe at a time when the Right was only temporarily in triumph.

That`s 30 years ago. Now we have the European Union and ISIS. Refugee and financial crisis. War in Syria, Iraq and Libya.

In terms of psychological impact, Palmes assassination had the same effects on Sweden as Kennedys assassination had on the U.S.

Palme and Kennedy`s death remains open.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Can Vevo be the “new” MTV

YouTube is a popular video-sharing website founded by three former PayPal employees in 2005. Google acquired YouTube one year later for $1,65 billion. YouTube has more than 4 billion views per day, and some of them are Vevo videos.

Vevo is a multinational video hosting service owned and operated by a joint venture of Universal Group (UMG), Sony Music Entertainment (SME), Abu dhabi Media and Google. It all started in December 2009, and Vevo hosts videos syndicated across the web.

Kendrick Lamar were one of the big winners (along with Taylor Swift) at the 58th annual Grammy Awards 2016. Lamar took home five awards out of 11 nominations. You can stream Lamar`s Vevo-video ”King Kunta” on YouTube.

 

 

Warner Music Group was initially reported to be considering hosting its content on the service, but formed an alliance with rival MTV Networks (now Viacom Media Networks).

MTV is a strong brand, and brand value as of May 2015 are $6,2 billion, with sales coming in at $3,4 billion. Google and Vevo are sharing the advertising revenue, and net income was $760 million in 2013.

MTV is an old well-known brand, founded in 1981. The New York City based company is an American basic cable and satellite television channel. The original purpose of MTV was to play music videos VJ`s (video jockeys). That was then. What now?

MTV is not a 100% pure music television anymore, but consist more reality, comedy and drama. What kind of Music Television is that?

So is it for YouTube. It`s a channel for everything, but when more than 300 hours new videos are being uploaded to YouTube every minute, it speaks for itself. Music videos will drown in competition with cats and dogs and other funny videos.

So, CEO Erik Huggers has a plan. He revealed plans for a paid subscription, according to Code/Media. He said he wanted to be the ”specialty store” to YouTube`s ”supermarket,” adding that Vevo can offer a better experience than what he described as a ”lowest common denominator for all type of content out there.”

”If were really honest and look in the mirror, we can say gosh, were a watermark on the third-party player (YouTube),” CEO Erik Huggers said. Vevo today is all about ad-supported, so their next step is subscription.

In addition, Vevo is trying to make its own music-related content, which is a strategy Tidal, Apple Music and Spotify have tried with varying degrees of success.

YouTube Red can give you everything on YouTube ad-free. How are Vevo gonna compete with that? They need to create a very exclusive channel to survive I think. Time will show.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Do you know the Target?

Last week I wrote about the biggest U.S retailer Wal-Mart. While the stock market had a terrible start of the year, Wal-Mart went in the opposite direction. What about the second largest discount retailer Target? The stock have so fare in 2016 been flat.

Target is over 100 years old, founded by Goodfellow Dry Goods in 1902, but the first Target store was opened in 1962. A lot of things have changed since then. Target operates 1,801 locations throughout the U.S.

Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named City Target and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.

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A lot of retailers will come out with reports this week, and Target is one of them. They will report on February 24, before the open.

Estimize is looking for EPS of $1,54 and revenue of $21.896 billion, in-line with Wall Street on the bottom line, and around $35 million greater  on the top-line. Target is projecting relatively flat earnings growth compared to the same period last year.

Target has gone online long time ago, and they had a record online traffic during the recent holiday shopping season. Amazon is the king in online-shopping and Target has a long way to go to come up to Amazon`s level.

Last quarter, digital channel sales surged 20% while also adding to comp store sales growth.

Target have a lot of job to do at handling massive inflows, and days like Cyber Monday, Black Friday and the holiday season are leaving many consumers frustrated. The company have made strategic hires combined with a renewed focus on higher-margin apparel.

Compared to Wal-Mart, Target generate above-average margins which is higher than their biggest rival Wal-Mart. The reason for that is Target`s higher –margin segments like home goods which accounts for about 36%. Wal-Mart generates only 14% in that segment.

Consumer prices in the U.S went up 1,4% YoY in January of 2016, following a 0,7% increase in the previous month. The inflation rate accelerated for the fourth straight month, but the U.S food inflation has dropped sharply last 12 months. From 3% last year to only 0,8 in January 2016.

Target hope to reach their goal in 2016 with a new and fresh leadership at the top. One of their goals is to make a multi-channel approach, which means they are looking for customers who shop in more than one channel at a time.

Their smaller-format stores will be 50% smaller than the typical 130,000-square-foot stores. Target`s urban locations will be about 45,000 square feet in size, and the reason for that strategic change is that the productivity levels are double those of traditional stores, and those stores will come in busy city centers.

Target recently sold its pharmacy business to CVS in a deal worth $1,9 billion, and in the next 6 to 8 months all 1672 Target pharmacies will be rebrand to read CVS, operating through a store within a store format.

This partnership is expected to serve as a compliment to the customer experience which will help drive higher traffic. The company is also focusing on the development of smaller format stores to penetrate urban and metropolitan areas.

In addition; Target has eliminated over 3000 stores and corporate employees in the U.S, estimated to save the company $2 billion.

All the changes makes Target`s future bright and I assume the new employees know the new target.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Google will deliver milk to your door

Google are expanding and  have a new strategy to make a huge impact into customers daily life. They want to deliver milk on your door. Yes, milk and other perishable goods like meat, tomatoes, bread and eggs, and the first delivery starts next Wednesday.

Google have become the worlds most valuable company, and earn money on ads, internet-connected thermostats and high-speed service. They have the worlds best search engine and almost everybody in the world can use the site, but what about the grocery delivery?

That`s not so easy as a search engine and of course it will be impossible to deliver to the whole world, so they will start in Los Angeles and parts of San Francisco. This delivery service is part of Google Express, which partners with retailers in some U.S cities.

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We know that Wal-Mart will expand their e-commerce business and Amazon Fresh is already in the same business and have taken a great stake in the market. Other competitors are Fresh Direct, Safeway and Instacart Express, but this business is complicated and not so easy.

Many of the companies are struggling to earn money because the margins are too small with about 2% on grocery sales. In addition to low profit margin you have high delivery costs and sometimes more expensive food.

Google said they will take advantage of holding inventory in costly warehouses and keep the cost down by making deliveries from there. Amazon deliver from their own. Online grocery shopping is a $11 billion business with 9,6% annual expected growth, but the margins are low.

Annual membership for Google Express will cost $95 and fresh-food deliveries will cost $2,99 per order. Non-Express members will pay $4,99 an order.  They also have bold goal which is to deliver within two hours.

Google will collaborate with Costco Wholesale Corp, Whole Foods Market and Smart & Final Stores in San Francisco. Furthermore, they will deliver from Smart & Final, Costco and upscale grocer Vincente Foods in Los Angeles.

A good friend of mine started a similar project 18 years ago. He is innovative and smart, but the concept was short-lived and he lost millions. It`s not because the concept was bad, but I think he was way to early in the market.

The same happened with Webvan Group. They went bankruptcy in 2001 and lost nearly one billion. Timing is important, so Google are launching Google Express in right time I think. So is it with my friend. He started with the same project last year.

Google Express has been around for a while, and this is a coming competitor to Amazon. You can order from many stores on Google Express, like Staples, Toys R Us, Target and Barnes & Noble to name a few. They deliver in Manhattan, Chicago, San Jose, Boston and Washington DC.

Google Express is a pilot project and if it works in Los Angeles and San Francisco, they will expand to other cities near you.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Wal-Mart have huge challenges

Wal-Mart is an interesting case. While the stock market have plummeted, Wal-Mart have been strong so far in 2016. Up over 8%. Wal-Mart announces earnings on Thursday and what can we expect from a retailer with so many challenges in the market right now?

Estimize calls for EPS of $1,45, which is one penny lower than Wall Street. Revenue expectations of $130,513B are greater than the Street`s consensus of $130,461B. Revenue estimates have fallen by almost $1B in the last 3 months.

This quarter it is expected to post a 10% decline in EPS YoY, with revenue estimated to fall 1%. Declining expectations have to do with guidance Wal-Mart gave in October, lowering FY 2015 guidance and claiming YoY sales growth would be flat due to wage hikes and FX headwinds. WMT

Wal-Mart have 11,600 stores and know that the market have changed to a more difficult retail climate. Wal-Mart said in January that it will close 269 stores worldwide, but it also said that in the next year it plans to open about 140 new stores nationwide.

In the U.S, Wal-Mart will also shut down all 102 Wal-Mart Express locations, which is a pilot program that started five years ago. It will close 23 Neighborhood Market locations, 12 Wal-Mart supercenters, 7 stores in Puerto Rico, 6 discount centers and 4 Sam`s Clubs.

Many claims that Wal-Mart have strong competitions from Amazon, and Wal-Mart said it will focus more on e-commerce and expanding pick-up services for customers. The retailer will open 50-60 new Supercenters, 85-95 new Neighborhood Markets and 7 to 10 new Sam`s Clubs across the U.S in fiscal 2017.

The retailer was a leader in grocery sales from mid-1990s to 2000s. Grocery still makes up about 55% of its revenue.

Wal-Mart`s ”click and collect” concept, where customers can order online and then get their merchandise at the store, give the workers more fear that this could be the beginning of more cuts in the future.

A big surprise for many was Wal-Mart`s announcement to raise base wages for its U.S workers. Wal-Mart is a cost-conscious retailer and it raised hourly wages to a minimum of $9 last April, and is set to bump them up to $10 this February.

The federal government has not raised the minimum wage since 2009 when  it lifted it from $2,15 per hour to $7,25 per hour.  Some cities are planning to raise wages to $15 per hour.

Wal-Mart is not the only one to close its stores. Sears Holding Corp will close a number of Kmart stores, while Macy`s will close 40 and cut 4,800 jobs. E-commerce and an improved superstore experience are growth drivers for Wal-Mart, but wages can be a challenge in the future.

Amazon are more efficient and generate $650,000 in revenue per employee. To compare, Wal-Mart generate $220,000 and this is a disadvantage for Wal-Mart with 2,2 million employees vs Amazon`s 154,000.

The average employee at Costco makes $21 per hour, so Wal-Mart have a lot of challenges now.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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