The Auto Industry is strong

The U.S auto industry is up 75% since 2009, and is on the way to a new record year of annual sales, according to GM. U.S auto sales was only 10,4 million vehicles in 2009 but has skyrocketed to as much as 18,2 million so far in 2015, and this is the highest level since 2001.

Did someone say the U.S economy is bad? October was a huge month for the auto industry, despite concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending and stagnant wages. According to World Bank, the GDP per capita in the U.S was last recorded at 46405,26 dollars in 2014. That`s an all time high.

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Fiat Chrysler automotive reported its 67th straight month of YoY gains. Up 14,7% from 2014. Ford Motor Co is up 13%. Toyota Motor Corp; up 13%. Nissan Motor Co; up 12,5% in October, while GM said its sales is up 16% to 262,993 vehicles last month. The best October since 2004.

We cannot say the same about Tesla. They lowered the number of vehicles it plans to sell in 2015. From 50,000 – 55,000 to about 50,000 – 52,000. Tesla`s earnings growth in 2015 is -159,03% vs industry earnings growth at 24,50%, while P/E is down -85,86%.

Despite that, the most hyped stock in the market is up over 11% on Wednesday. Tesla announced Q3 results on Wednesday and they missed while burning a record amount of cash. Q3 non-GAAP gross margin dropped from 29,4% in 2014 to 25,1%.

Tesla released the new SUV a month ago and they have spent a lot of money into the production of this new model, so investors will want to see that sales of their new Model X are offsetting those costs. Tesla`s ongoing cash burn is the company`s worst cash burning quarter in their history.

Tesla`s Model 3 will be their most cost-effective model starting at $35k, and Tesla said they will start taking orders in March next year. The stock is up on Wednesday because of Musk`s forecast and that was as usual bullish.

Tesla has been working hard on building its gigafactory outside of Reno in Nevada. Their goal is to produce cheaper batteries and China is in focus for Tesla, because weaker sales can move the manufacturing facility to the region, as China is a key market for luxury cars.

What about Volkswagen?

Volkswagen`s recall is one of the biggest in Europe with 11 million vehicles worldwide. That`s more then they sell in one year. Rebates may help them to slow the decline, but the German carmaker`s market share in Europe is at its lowest in six months. Do I need to say more?

All this is happening while the rests of the world is waiting for the driverless cars which may become sooner than expected. GM now tries to beat Google to the driverless future. Steve Jobs talked about building Apple Car as early as 2008, so we expect to see Apple as well in the market and sooner than we know.

I`m not in doubt; the electric car is the future of the auto industry.

There is one problem. If we`re gonna help the rich, we need to help the poor. People need money and jobs. That`s how you create consumers.What we see in Tesla`s stock today is the stock market in miniature. Bad news is turned into good and the stock is rising high in the sky.

The auto industry looks strong, but Q3 reports seems to give us a sign of slower sales and earnings, and I haven`t seen that since 2009. But stimulus in China and Europe helps the stocks to rally.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the economy is solid on Wednesday in testimony before the House Financial Services committee in Washington. She said that would spur December rate hike. She said; «Domestic spending has been growing at a solid pace».

The rate has been near zero since 2008 and the Fed have waited for labor markets to move closer to their goal of full employment. The unemployment rate stood at 5,1% in September. The auto industry need consumers.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

 

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