Tag Archives: Productivity

The Global Debt Crisis is an Unseen Time Bomb

When discussions about debt dominate the headlines, the United States is often the central focus. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124.3%, it’s easy to understand why. But the U.S. is far from alone in facing a massive fiscal challenge. Other advanced economies are carrying even heavier burdens, and the global implications are both profound and often overlooked.

Japan: The Debt Giant

Japan holds the world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 236.7%. Decades of low growth, heavy public spending, and an aging population have pushed the country into uncharted fiscal waters. While Japan has avoided crisis thanks to strong domestic savings and near-zero interest rates, the sustainability of this model is under constant scrutiny.

Italy: Europe’s Weak Link

Close behind is Italy, with a staggering 135,3% debt-to-GDP ratio. Burdened by structural economic weaknesses, sluggish productivity, and political instability, Italy has long been considered one of the eurozone’s most fragile economies. A sudden shock, whether financial or political, could easily ripple across the European continent.

The United States: A Growing Concern

At 124.3%, U.S. debt levels are higher than at any point since World War II. Unlike Japan, the U.S. relies heavily on international investors to finance its debt. Rising interest rates and political gridlock over fiscal policy only increase the risks. Given the U.S. dollar’s central role in the global financial system, instability in this market could have widespread consequences worldwide.

France and Canada: Silent Strugglers

France, at 113%, and Canada, at 110.8%, are also far above the traditional sustainability threshold (often pegged at around 60% of GDP). Both countries face demographic pressures, high social spending, and the challenge of funding welfare states without stifling economic growth.

Why It’s Unsustainable

High debt levels limit governments’ flexibility. In times of crisis, whether another pandemic, a war, or a financial meltdown, nations with already bloated balance sheets have little room to maneuver. Debt servicing costs also divert resources away from critical areas, such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

A Global Time Bomb

The global debt problem isn’t isolated. The IMF warns that mounting debt in advanced economies could spill over into emerging markets, sparking instability across the financial system. With inflation still high and interest rates rising, debt servicing costs are growing rapidly. Unless meaningful reforms are enacted, the world may be heading toward a reckoning.

Conclusion

It’s easy to point fingers at the U.S., but the debt problem is truly a global issue. Japan, Italy, France, and Canada. All highly developed nations are carrying unsustainable debt loads that could destabilize the global economy. For now, markets remain calm, but history has shown that debt crises often strike suddenly and with devastating force. Without coordinated efforts to rein in borrowing and restore fiscal discipline, the next major crisis may already be quietly brewing.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee the accuracy of this information. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Productivity isn`t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything

I want to follow up my article from yesterday. It`s about Germany which has a huge problem with GDP at -0,1. Aging population. Lack of innovation, investments, R&D, and growth. But Germany is not the only country with problems like that.

Many countries in the world have the same problems. But there is a great solution to this problem, and Paul Krugman wrote about it in his book, «The Age of Diminished Expectations.» He said; «Productivity isn`t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.»

Productivity is a foundation of prosperity, and the only way a country can raise its standard of living sustainably is to produce more with existing or fewer resources. You cannot do that without improving productivity. It`s that simple, Gita Bhatt wrote in an article at IMF.

We know that productivity must play a more important role in driving sustained growth as our societies age. But there`s no consensus on how to reverse the broad slowdown in productivity growth seen across almost all countries over the past 20 years.

Especially vexing is the sluggish growth of what economists call total factor productivity. A way of measuring how efficiently businesses turn capital and labor into output. The part that basically captures innovation and technology.

Slower gains in total factor productivity account for more than half the deceleration in economic growth since the global financial crisis, IMF-analysis shows. Another decade of weak productivity growth could seriously erode living standards and threaten financial and social stability.

Small companies can drive productivity gains, writes the University of Chicago`s Ufuk Akcigit. He shows how small firms are more innovative relative to their size, suggesting that they use R&D resources more efficiently.

As companies grow and dominate their markets, they often shift to protecting their market position, rather than fostering innovation, he said.

Policies matter too. Measures should encourage more effective reallocation of resources away from low-productivity firms and support smaller businesses and start-ups. Not just large incumbents. This could include targeted tax credits, grants for early-stage innovation, workforce retraining, and policies that encourage competition and reduce barriers to entry for new players.

Understanding productivity growth more fully is crucial because it plays such an outsize role in economic growth, which, as Daniel Susskind of King`s College London writes; also demands a renewed approach to help improve people`s lives.

Ultimately, as Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps writes; a productive society should allow people to enjoy «mass flourishing» from the grassroots up.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Trump`s tax cuts and reforms are working, and 4,1 percent growth means the strongest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014

America is growing fast. The United States are growing faster than China. The U.S economy advanced an annualized 4,1 percent on quarter in Q2 of 2018, while China grew by «only» 1,8 percent. That`s a bomb.

The Chinese economy advanced 6,7 percent YoY in June quarter of 2018. Last year, the economy expanded by 6,9 percent, beating the government target of around 6,5 percent and following a 26 year low of 6,7 percent in 2016. But, the United States can come up to that level very soon.

Trump`s tax cuts and reforms are working, and now we can all see right in front of us. The U.S economy advanced in the second quarter of 2018 and it will continue. This is just the beginning. The growth can reach 6 percent and compete with China.

The U.S exports jumped 9,3 percent (3,6 percent in the previous quarter), and imports rose at a much slower pace. 0,5 percent compared to 3 percent. The impact from trade was 1,06 percent, which is much better than -0,02 percent in the first quarter, and this is the highest contribution since the last three months of 2013.

4,1 percent growth means the strongest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014 amid higher consumer spending and soybean exports while business spending slowed. Spending of durable goods rebounded 9,3 percent compared to -2 percent and rose faster for nondurable goods; 4,2 percent compared to 0,1 percent and services; 3,1 percent compared to 1 percent.

Larry Kudlow said in his speech today that this is just the beginning. They have fixed a world broken trade system, and business investment is booming. 9 to 10 percent in the beginning of this year.

This is important because it is the key to productivity which is the key to growth which is the key to real rising wages. Big corporations like Apple are also coming back to the U.S.

This is a boom that is sustainable, Kudlow said.

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